If the popular vote is tied, President Trump has an 88% chance of being re-elected.
Electoral College researchers predict that if the popular vote between Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden is tied, Mr. Trump will have an 88% chance of being re-elected.
Accordingly, the electors will continue to lean towards supporting the candidate.Republican Partyin 2020, but the difference between the popular vote and the electoral vote will not be as large as in 2016. Researchers at Columbia University have spent a lot of time analyzing the "reversal" in the election when candidates like Mr. Al Gore and Mrs. Hillary Clinton, despite winning more popular votes nationwide, still lost the electoral vote, which plays a role in deciding who is the President of the United States.
Their data shows that Mr Trump has a 12% chance of losing to Mr Biden if the popular vote race between the two candidates is nearly even or extremely close.
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| Donald Trump and Melania Trump vote on Election Day on November 8 in New York City. Photo: Getty |
Even if the popular vote is in favor ofMr. BidenCompared to Mr. Trump at 52% and 48%, Mr. Trump also has a chance to win the electoral vote. However, if the percentage of popular votes supporting Mr. Trump falls below 48%, his chance of winning will become increasingly remote.
If Mr. Biden wins the popular vote like Mrs. Hillary Clinton did in 2016, at 51.1%, the Democratic candidate will only have a 46.14% chance of winning the electoral vote in 2020.
Still, the study authors cautioned that using 2012 data may not reflect what happened in 2016, especially in battleground states like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, where Mr. Trump won the popular vote by narrow margins.
The Electoral College consists of 538 electors, including 435 representatives, 100 senators from 50 states, and 3 electors from Washington, DC. Candidates need at least 270 electoral votes to win. If the results between two candidates are equal, the House of Representatives will decide who will become President./.
