Russia warns conflict in Ukraine will last for decades

Deputy Chairman of the Russian Federation Security Council Dmitry Medvedev. Photo: AFP:VNA

Posting on Telegram, Mr. Medvedev emphasized: "This conflict goes on for a very long time, maybe for decades. It is a new reality, new living conditions. As long as such power exists (in Kiev), there will be, let's say, three years of ceasefire, two years of conflict, and then everything will happen as before. The essence of Nazi power in Kiev must be eliminated."

Mr Medvedev said Ukraine has no future if it continues as it is, outlining three possible scenarios that could lead to the collapse of the Ukrainian state and assessing the risk of a renewed conflict in Europe and a global war. Mr Medvedev explained that the collapse of the Ukrainian state is inevitable and could happen quickly or through “relatively slow erosion, with the gradual loss of the remaining elements of sovereignty”.

He outlined three scenarios for this collapse. In the first scenario, part of western Ukraine would fall under the control of and eventually be annexed by neighboring EU countries. The remaining “no man’s land” between Russia and the EU protectorate would become “a new Ukraine,” still trying to join NATO and posing a threat to Russia. He believes that in that case, armed conflict would soon flare up again, potentially becoming permanent, with the risk of quickly escalating into a full-scale world war.

In the second scenario, Ukraine would have a de facto defunct government-in-exile, with control of the entire territory divided between the EU and Russia. In that case, Medvedev said, the risk of a world war would not be so high, but “terrorist activity by Ukrainian neo-fascists” in territories annexed by EU neighbors would continue. Medvedev said he preferred a third scenario, in which the western regions of Ukraine voluntarily join EU neighbors, while the eastern and some central regions exercise “the right to self-determination enshrined in Article 1 of the UN Charter.”

On the same day, in another related development, US Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland announced that Washington has supported planning for Ukraine's counter-offensive campaign against Russia for nearly the past 6 months.

“As you were planning the counteroffensive, which we have been supporting for about four or five months, we began discussions with the Ukrainian government and with our friends in Kiev — both military and civilian — about the long-term future of Ukraine,” Nuland said, speaking remotely from the State Department’s Kyiv Security Forum.

The counteroffensive will “likely begin and run concurrently” with events such as the NATO summit in Lithuania, scheduled for July 11, the US diplomat said. The US is also planning to bolster Ukraine’s future military to deter Russia, Nuland said, painting a rosy picture of the future in which Ukraine will be “the engine of European revival” and “set an example of democracy… for the world.”

The Ukrainian government has been signaling a large-scale “counteroffensive” for months. President Volodymyr Zelensky and other Ukrainian officials have said the country’s armed forces lack sufficient weapons, ammunition and equipment, and have demanded more deliveries from the West. Two of Zelensky’s advisers have recently made public statements suggesting the offensive has not yet begun, while another official has said the operation is underway along a 1,500-kilometer frontline.