Russia warns the conflict in Ukraine will last for decades.

Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of the Federal Security Council of Russia. Photo: AFP/VNA

Posting on Telegram, Medvedev emphasized: "This conflict has been going on for a very long time, possibly decades. It is a new reality, a new way of life. As long as such power exists (in Kyiv), there will be, for example, three years of ceasefire, two years of conflict, and then everything will go back to how it was before. The very nature of Nazi power in Kyiv must be eradicated."

Medvedev asserted that Ukraine would have no future if the current situation continued, outlining three possible scenarios leading to the collapse of the Ukrainian state and assessing the risk of a renewed conflict in Europe and a global war. Medvedev explained that the collapse of the Ukrainian state was inevitable and could occur quickly or through “a relatively slow erosion, with the gradual loss of remaining elements of sovereignty.”

He outlined three scenarios for this potential collapse. In the first scenario, part of western Ukraine would fall under the control of and eventually be annexed by neighboring European Union (EU) countries. The remaining “vacant land” between Russia and the EU protectorate would become “a new Ukraine,” still attempting to join NATO and posing a threat to Russia. He believed that in that case, armed conflict would soon erupt again, potentially becoming permanent with the risk of rapidly escalating into a full-scale world war.

In the second scenario, Ukraine would have a government in exile that effectively ceases to exist, with control over the entire territory divided between the EU and Russia. According to Medvedev, in that case, the risk of a world war would not be very high, but “terrorist activities carried out by Ukrainian neo-fascists” in the territories annexed by neighboring EU countries would persist. Medvedev said he leaned more towards the third scenario, in which the western territories of Ukraine voluntarily annexed by neighboring EU countries, while the eastern and some central regions exercised “the right of self-determination as stipulated in Article 1 of the UN Charter.”

On the same day, in a related development, US Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland announced that Washington had been assisting in planning Ukraine's counter-offensive against Russia for nearly six months.

Speaking remotely from the State Department headquarters at the Kyiv Security Forum, Ms. Nuland stated: “As soon as you began planning the counteroffensive, a task we’ve been supporting for about four to five months, we started discussions with the Ukrainian government and with our friends in Kyiv – both military and civilian – regarding Ukraine’s long-term future.”

According to US diplomatic officials, the counter-offensive will “likely begin and run concurrently” with events such as the NATO summit in Lithuania, scheduled for July 11. Ms. Nuland emphasized that the US is also planning to bolster Ukraine’s future military to deter Russia. She also painted a rosy picture of the future in which Ukraine would be “the engine of European revival” and “a model of democracy… for the whole world.”

The Ukrainian government had been signaling a large-scale “counteroffensive” for months. President Volodymyr Zelensky and other Ukrainian officials claimed that the country’s armed forces lacked sufficient weapons, ammunition, and equipment, and therefore requested additional supplies from the West. Recently, two of Zelensky’s advisors made public statements implying that the counteroffensive had not yet begun, while another official asserted that the operation was underway along a 1,500-kilometer front line.