Is Russia ambitious to replace the US in the Middle East?

Russia is gaining ground in Syria, has good relations with Iran, Iraq, and Turkey. The King of Saudi Arabia recently visited Moscow. Does Russia want to replace the US in the region?

At the opening of a recent meeting with Saudi King Salman, Russian President Vladimir Putin reminded the Saudi leader that the Soviet Union was the first country to recognize the Arab kingdom in 1926. Yet, decades later, Saudi Arabia has become one of Moscow's toughest rivals in the region.

Saudi Arabian King Salman (left) and Russian President Putin attend a ceremony in Moscow on October 5. Photo: Reuters.

However, times have changed, and King Salman has become the first Saudi monarch to visit Moscow. Moreover, this visit is expected to significantly boost Russia-Saudi Arabia cooperation on an unprecedented scale.

From confrontation to cooperation

There are numerous accusations from the West that President Putin is trying to revive the international ambitions of the Soviet Union. In fact, Russia's current policies in many regions have gone further than those of the former Soviet Union. The Middle East is a prime example of this.

In the past, the Soviet Union and Israel were at times on the brink of direct military conflict. Iran, both under the Shah and after the Islamic Revolution, further complicated relations with its northern neighbor. Turkey, meanwhile, was a quintessential NATO member. Saudi Arabia was then eagerly developing cooperative relations with the United States even as Britain remained the dominant Western power in the Middle East.

Today, King Salman became the last of the leaders from the four aforementioned countries to travel to Russia to meet with Putin and discuss bilateral cooperation. However, despite arriving later, Saudi Arabia may quickly catch up with other Middle Eastern countries in terms of cooperation with Russia.

This newfound rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Russia may come as a considerable surprise, given the significant disagreements between the two countries. Not only do Russia and Saudi Arabia compete in the global energy market, but they also support different factions in the Syrian civil war. Just last year, Saudi Arabia was deeply concerned about Russia's support for Syrian President al-Assad, which hampered negotiations on oil price management.

This year, the situation has changed rapidly. Syrian President al-Assad's forces have achieved many victories, cooperation between Russia and the OPEC oil bloc has increased, and the Saudi Arabian king has visited Moscow.

Similar motif to Turkey

However, this shift is not entirely new. Previously, Russia-Türkiye relations had already warmed considerably after a prolonged period of tension following the Turkish air force's downing of a Russian fighter jet in 2015. Currently, Russia-Turkey relations have never been deeper.

In the case of Saudi-Russian relations, it appears that King Salman intervened to prevent escalating tensions. That intervention was not without reason. Despite their differences, the two countries did not have major conflicts that warranted a life-or-death confrontation. For its part, Moscow has never declared Saudi Arabia an enemy, even though extremist Wahhabi Islamic ideology from Saudi Arabia has spread and taken root in Russia's Dagestan and Chechen republics.

During King Salman's visit to Moscow, the two sides signed dozens of different cooperation agreements, ranging from space exploration to cultural exchange, from investment to arms sales, and from scientific cooperation to agriculture.

There are two particularly noteworthy areas. First, the two countries have begun exploring the most effective ways to cooperate in the nuclear and renewable energy sectors. Second, both sides have announced that Saudi Arabia will purchase Russian S-400 air defense systems.

Interestingly, in both these areas, Saudi Arabia seems to be following the same path as Türkiye. Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states likely closely monitored the US reaction to Türkiye's purchase of S-400s from Russia. When there were clear signs that the US did not oppose the arms deal, Russia achieved a significant success in the global arms market. If one NATO member country buys the S-400, what reason would other NATO countries have to be interested?

Russia remains alert.

It should be noted that the partnership between Russia and Saudi Arabia is based on the principle of non-interference in each other's internal affairs and the avoidance of ideological considerations.

Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir stated: “Both countries believe in the need to respect the principle of sovereignty and international law, and the policy of non-interference in the internal affairs of other countries. Both countries oppose the imposition of principles alien to our societies.”

However, Moscow probably doesn't want to replace Washington as the dominant power in the Middle East like the US. Russia understands the dangers of spreading its forces too thinly.

In the past, Britain played a crucial role in ensuring regional security. During the Cold War, the United States replaced Britain. Many countries in the region became adept at relying on the US to solve their problems, causing the US to become deeply involved and waste a lot of money, losing many long-term benefits.

Russia is different from the United States. Today, Russia has learned many painful lessons from its excessive expansion of influence during the Cold War. Furthermore, Russia's current internal political situation leaves no room for adventurous plans abroad. That is why cooperation between Russia and Saudi Arabia, and more broadly with other major powers in the Middle East, is unlikely to lead Russia to become a "policeman" in the Middle East.

According to VOV