Russia - Iran and the post-war 'pie'

(Baonghean) - Although Iran and Russia have become closer since the political crisis in Syria, as the war draws to a close, both sides must consider their differing interests to avoid “fratricidal conflict.” This is one of the main dialogue priorities during Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to Iran starting on November 1.

Russian President Vladimir Putin (right) meets with President Hassan Rouhani in March 2017. Photo: Reuters

Harmonizing differences

The close alliance with Iran is now considered a pillar of Russia's foreign policy in the Middle East. Over the past two years, high-level bilateral visits have been more frequent and active. If in 2015, Russian President V. Putin visited Tehran to discuss measures to coordinate operations and support the government of Syrian President Bashar al-Asad, the main purpose of this visit of the Kremlin leader is to find a common voice with Iran in resolving post-war issues in Syria, narrowing the differences between the two countries to avoid the scenario of "fratricidal war".

Both Russia and Iran have a role to play in Syria as they are two of the countries involved in the process of resolving the crisis in this Middle Eastern country. In addition to supporting the Syrian government army to destroy IS and rebel groups, Russia and Iran also participated in the round of negotiations in Astana (Kazakhstan) to seek a political solution to the conflict in Syria.

According to experts, in the coming months, as the crisis here shifts from a military conflict to a political solution, many post-war issues will arise. What the political structure of the Syrian government will be like, what the roles of the parties after this war will be, are things that all parties involved must be concerned about. Meanwhile, although Russia and Iran are allies, they cannot avoid differences.

Russia sees its presence in Syria as part of its geopolitical rivalry with the United States. It wants Syria to be a country where different ethnic and religious minorities have equal rights. Iran, on the other hand, wants to establish a government in Damascus that will ensure Tehran’s power and influence in the region and for the Shiite Muslim community.

The 7th round of talks on Syria in Astana (Kazakhstan) is showing positive signs. Photo: Reuters

Obviously, Russia is not happy with Iran's attempts to impose its will on Damascus or with Iran's establishment of a political and ideological basis for the expansion of Shiite influence in the region... For Russia, Iran's strategic calculations could be destabilizing and could potentially fuel conflicts between Iran and Israel as well as between Iran and other Arab countries. That is why Russian President Putin is in Iran at this time and Syria is the top priority in his talks with the Iranian leadership.

Balance of Power

In addition to discussing the restructuring of the post-war Syrian state, an equally important purpose of the Russian President’s visit to Iran is to affirm the friendship between the two countries. The Russian-Iranian “friendship” is not only linked in terms of geopolitics but also in economic, energy and defense cooperation.

The two countries also face the common difficulty of being under US containment and sanctions. The need to coordinate to prevent US intentions in the Middle East as well as Washington's policy in Syria is of mutual concern to both Russia and Iran. In addition, Russia also needs to reassure Iran in the face of Moscow's active diplomatic moves in the Middle East in recent times.

In early October, a rare visit by the Saudi King to Russia led to speculation that there would be a change in the cordial relationship between Tehran and Moscow. During this trip, Russia and Saudi Arabia signed many contracts worth billions of dollars, notably the sale of Russian S-400 air defense systems to Saudi Arabia.

Meanwhile, Iran, a country considered an ally of Russia, was only allowed to buy the S-300 system, which is older than the S-400. The large deals, along with Russia’s warm welcome to the Saudi king, have led some commentators to even consider this a “betrayal” of the Russia-Iran partnership. Because in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia and Iran are “irreconcilable” rivals.

However, if we look back at Russia’s presence in the Middle East in recent times, we can see that Moscow is using a “pragmatic and flexible” foreign policy, working with all partners to maximize their interests. And President Putin’s visit to Iran this time is seen as a message that Russia’s cooperation with other countries in the Middle East such as Saudi Arabia or Israel will not threaten its allied relationship with Iran.

Russia promises to sell S-400 missile system to Saudi Arabia. Photo: Reuters

From another perspective, analysts say that, in fact, Russia wants to control the balance of power in the region. That means, instead of implementing the strategy of "supporting one side to fight the other", Russia seeks to maintain balance, restraining the parties to avoid an unnecessary confrontation. Evidence is that recently, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov offered to mediate between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Russian officials also visited Israel in the context of this country's concern that Iranian forces are getting stronger after the war in Syria ended.

In short, Russia is trying to maintain a strong diplomatic foothold in the region by establishing a balance that allows Russia to use one country to balance another, so that no single country has too much influence in the region. With this solution, it is very likely that in the future, Russia will create a diplomatic revolution in the region.

Thanh Huyen