Russia launches a 3-pronged attack from Donetsk to Sumy, Ukraine is at risk of breaking its defense line.
As the conflict enters its fourth summer, Russia continues to intensify its offensive, encircling and tightening its grip on many areas in Ukraine, especially Sumy, Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk.
Meanwhile, Kiev's forces - tired and exhausted due to lack of manpower and ammunition - are struggling to fend off an opponent that is stronger in many ways.
Russia has increased the pace of its operations on the battlefield in recent weeks. “Russia is now moving into a summer campaign, consolidating recent gains, rebuilding its forces, throwing in reserves while maintaining pressure and momentum,” said Ivan Torres, an analyst at Rochan Consulting, a Polish research group.
“Russia’s goal by the end of the summer offensive may be to capture the entire Donetsk region,” speculates Rajan Menon, director of the Comprehensive Strategy Program at Defense Priorities, a Washington-based research group. “They have made slow but steady progress, but the casualty rate has been quite high.”
Russia is currently attacking three key points to create a strategic domino effect:
Sumy
The 1,100-km front line – where fierce fighting has been taking place – stretches from the lower Dnieper River near the city of Kherson in the south to the northeast near the cities of Pokrovsk and Toretsk, then north to Chasiv Yar and Kupyansk near Russia's Belgorod border region.
But 300 kilometers northwest of Kupyansk, Russian troops were advancing on Sumy, a city with a pre-war population of 255,000.
Sumy lies on the main highway running north to the Russian border and the Kursk region. In late April, Russian troops, supported by some 11,000 North Korean soldiers, pushed the last Ukrainian units out of Kursk.
In recent weeks, Russian commanders have launched a concentrated, small-scale offensive from the north against Sumy. As of July 3, Russian forces were about 20 kilometers (12 miles) from the city. Russian officials said the advance on Sumy was aimed at creating a “deep buffer zone” along the border at the direction of President Putin.
“The attack on Sumy was seen as a significant move, pinning down significant Ukrainian forces in a non-critical direction while allowing Russia to gain control of a crucial piece of terrain,” said analyst Ivan Torres.
Chasiv Yar
Russian troops entered Chasiv Yar – a city located high above Donetsk – in the spring of 2024 after capturing the larger city of Avdiyivka in February of that year.
But Ukraine held Russian forces at bay for much of 2024, using a canal in the area as a natural line of defense. Russian units now occupy about 90% of the city, according to the Ukrainian open-source analysis group DeepState.
In recent days, Russian troops have also advanced toward Kostyantynivka from the south, noted Viktor Kevlyuk, an analyst at the Center for National Defense Strategy, a Kiev-based think tank. “The situation is very difficult, the enemy has made little progress, and even failed to achieve tactical success in the Chasiv Yar area, so a breakthrough is unlikely.”
If Ukraine lost Chasiv Yar entirely, it would allow Russian forces to use their height advantage to threaten and attack the city of Kostyantynivka – a rail and road junction in the southwest. That would jeopardize Ukraine’s supply lines and threaten the cities of Slovyansk and Kramatorsk, both of which are key locations for Ukrainian forces.
“The problem for Ukraine is that it cannot be everywhere at once. Russia has increased its drone attacks across the entire eastern front. They operate in many areas and Ukraine does not have the ability to monitor them all,” said analyst Rajan Menon.
Pokrovsk
About 55 kilometers southwest of Chasiv Yar is Pokrovsk, another major city where the Ukrainian army has built strong defenses. To attack this city, the Russian army would have to advance south and west, capturing a side road at the village of Kotylne.
Ukraine is trying to defend the E50 highway, which runs west from Pokrovsk to the major city of Dnipro. Losing that route would put Pokrovsk at risk. If Russia were to capture Pokrovsk, the entire Ukrainian frontline could collapse, an area of industrial towns and mining that experts call a “concentration zone.”
"The main goal of Russia's summer offensive is the complete capture of the Donetsk region, in particular the capture of the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk concentration area," Kevlyuk said.
“There are two key locations under attack: Pokrovsk and Kostyantynivka. If Russia takes these areas, it will be a serious blow to Ukraine. Kostyantynivka leads to a large urban area, from Izyum all the way to Kramatorsk,” Menon noted.
As the conflict devolved into a war of attrition, both Ukraine and Russia were quick to adopt new technology and new tactics. While Russian forces relied heavily on mass and firepower to wear down the Ukrainian military, Kiev relied heavily on unmanned vehicles to make up for its lack of manpower and weapons.
“However, Russia still has the advantage in personnel and equipment and can maintain the initiative on the battlefield,” Mr. Menon added.
Despite Ukraine’s improvements in drone tactics, the problem of manpower shortages remains unresolved. Despite changes to mobilization laws and regulations on military service, many Ukrainian units are still forced to fight on the battlefield for long periods of time without adequate rest and supplies.
“There is a significant crisis in recruitment, mobilization, training and equipment allocation in the Ukrainian Armed Forces. But even if all these problems are solved, larger problems such as ineffective command and control and inadequate organizational structures will remain,” noted analyst Torres.
“Time is against Ukraine,” Mr. Torres stressed.
