Russia - US arms development race: What future for New START?

Game changer

Hypersonic weapons are considered by experts to be a game changer among the world's military powers, especially the United States and Russia. The speed, accuracy and lethality of this new type of weapon threatens to make traditional military equipment such as tanks, aircraft carriers and amphibious assault ships quickly obsolete.

In recent years, Moscow has made significant progress in developing this type of weapon, and it seems that in the race to develop hypersonic weapons, Russia is gaining an advantage over the United States. President Putin first mentioned the weapons systems in 2018. At that time, a hypersonic weapon called Kinzhal was present on MiG-31 fighter jets. This weapon flies at 10 times the speed of sound and is capable of hitting targets on both land and sea. But that is not the most advanced weapon that the Russian military has.

Avangard is one of the latest strategic weapons capable of intercontinental flight at 20 times the speed of sound. Photo: TASS

According to the disclosure of Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, in 2020, the Russian nuclear forces will receive 22 Avangard and Yars hypersonic strategic intercontinental missile launchers. Avangard is one of the latest strategic weapons capable of intercontinental flight at 20 times the speed of sound. This weapon makes President Putin proud, Russia is the world leader in hypersonic missiles, forcing the US to "try to catch up".

This is a rare occasion when the head of Russia publicly reveals details about a strategic weapon that has always been in a "top secret" state. This shows that Russia has really made great strides in mastering hypersonic weapon technology - an offensive weapon of the future.

The Pentagon has previously acknowledged that the United States is significantly behind Russia in developing hypersonic weapons technology. Washington is currently pursuing a number of future hypersonic weapons programs, but all are at the experimental prototype stage, not yet a finished product. To ensure that it maintains a competitive advantage in the future with its Russian rival, the Pentagon has decided to build a high-speed weapon with three versions for the three forces, the Navy, the Air Force and the Army.

Russian President Vladimir Putin affirmed that Russia's hypersonic weapons are number 1 in the world. Photo: Kremlin

In a notable move, the US Senate Appropriations Committee recently passed a budget bill for fiscal year 2020 with an investment of 10.58 billion USD (more than 245,000 billion VND) for the Missile Defense Agency, an increase of 1.2 billion USD compared to the proposal. Notably, this committee adjusted the increase by about 1 billion USD to increase the capacity to manufacture and produce hypersonic weapons compared to the proposal of the Department of Defense in March. This adjustment is said to be due to pressure from some officials, who have criticized the US defense industry for not pursuing the development of hypersonic weapons consistently and quickly over the past many years.

Although Russia and the US have repeatedly affirmed that they are not participating in an arms race, both Russia and the US's secret and public plans to modernize weapons show that the race to possess the most advanced and modern weapons is still part of the two rivals' strategy of "containment" of each other.

Who controls the weapons?

In the context of Russia's breakthrough in military modernization, it is not difficult to understand why the US is accelerating its program to develop new hypersonic weapons. This reality is essentially no different from an arms race. It is worth noting that major countries are not only targeting hypersonic weapons. Currently, both Russia and the US have changed their approach compared to a few decades ago. If during the Cold War, the two superpowers constantly competed in massive weapons, now they have shifted their focus to strategic weapons, meaning only a few main weapons, which are the strengths of each country. In addition to hypersonic weapons, military experts believe that nuclear missiles, nuclear submarines, cruise missiles and long-range bombers will be weapons with terrible deterrence capabilities against opponents that major countries focus on.

The US tested its first hypersonic weapon in 2011. Photo: US Army

Not only are experts worried about the resurgence of the arms race between the US and Russia, they also believe that China, with its strong rise and global ambitions, is rapidly increasing its military power.

With its huge investment in the military over the years, China now possesses the most destructive modern weapons of a leading military power, from intercontinental ballistic missiles to aircraft carriers, submarines, stealth warships, stealth aircraft... In the Pacific Ocean alone, China has about 1,500 short-range ballistic missiles, 450 medium-range missiles, 160 long-range missiles and hundreds of long-range land-based cruise missiles...

The question is what will happen to the world if the race to produce and test new weapons continues without a mechanism to limit the number of these weapons. The binding and control of arms between the two superpowers Russia and the United States now only relies on the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) after the collapse of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF). However, the New START Treaty will expire in early 2021. Therefore, 2020 will be a pivotal year for arms control negotiations between Washington and Moscow. If this Treaty also has the same fate as the INF, this will be the first time in the past 50 years that there is no treaty limiting the nuclear weapons of the United States and Russia. This is a major concern for the world in the context of countries aiming to develop weapons as a deterrent and "bargaining" ability in other games.

2020 will be a pivotal year for arms control talks between Washington and Moscow. Photo: Moneycontrol

Russian President Vladimir Putin has said he is ready to extend New START immediately without any conditions. For his part, President Trump has said he wants a broader agreement that also includes China, a bigger win for the treaty than just extending it. However, China has repeatedly rejected the idea of ​​joining negotiations on New START.

The trend of weapons development among the great powers will probably not stop because geopolitical competition is still fierce. Such a context necessarily requires a mechanism to control and prevent massive weapons development. That is the "cornerstone" for current world security./.