Russia and Japan: Resolving territorial disputes through economic means.

(Baonghean) - Japan and Russia have announced they will hold talks in mid-March in Tokyo to discuss how to implement joint economic activities on the islands that Russia calls the Southern Kurils and Japan calls the Northern Territories. This is considered an important step towards realizing the determination of both sides to definitively resolve the territorial dispute that has lasted for more than seven decades over these islands.

Economic leverage

To promote joint economic activities on the Southern Kuril Islands/Northern Territories, the Japanese government has established a new committee chaired by Japan's Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry, Hiroshige Seko, who is also the Minister in charge of economic cooperation with Russia.

The committee members include representatives from the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, the Ministry of Environment, and the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare. The formation of this committee follows the summit between Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Russian President Vladimir Putin last December and ahead of Abe's visit to Russia in the first half of this year.

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe at Japan's "National Conference on Demanding the Return of the Northern Territories in 2017" on February 7. Photo: Kyodo

The first projects to be implemented in economic cooperation between the two sides will include fisheries, aquaculture, tourism, and nature conservation. However, in the long term, building on cooperation in the disputed archipelago, both sides also want to expand cooperation to the Far East region, with the biggest focus being energy.

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe once set a target for Russia to secure more than 40% of Japan's oil and gas needs by 2030. A new phase of Russia-Japan energy cooperation will soon begin at Yalma in northern Siberia. This mega-project will allow Russia to supply natural gas to Asia via the Northern Sea Route.

Furthermore, at the 2nd Eastern Economic Forum held in Vladivostok, Russia, in the middle of last year, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe agreed on cooperation in investing in the Sakhalin-2 energy project.

Japan's Mitsui Group will invest up to $1 billion to expand the Sakhalin-2 project and is open to the possibility of continuing with the Sakhalin-3 project. Construction of a liquefied natural gas (LNG) production plant on the Yamal Peninsula is expected to begin in 2018.

Prospects for signing a peace treaty.

Territorial disputes have been the most contentious issue in bilateral relations between Russia and Japan for over seven decades. Currently, both Russia and Japan are well aware of the mutual benefits of economic cooperation in the disputed archipelago, and even consider it a foundation for signing a peace treaty between the two countries.

Russian President Vladimir Putin once said that "the past should not become an obstacle to the future" in Russia-Japan relations. Meanwhile, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe also hinted that both sides need to change their approach in order to resolve this issue.

"As Prime Minister of Japan, I affirm Japan's correct position, while President Putin is completely confident in Russia's correct position. If we continue like this, the negotiations will drag on for many more decades."

And Japan has demonstrated its goodwill by recently no longer considering territorial disputes as a prerequisite for bilateral cooperation as before – a move seen as overcoming the "chicken and egg" dilemma that has always hindered cooperation efforts between the two sides.

However, according to analysts, despite new progress in economic cooperation, the path toward resolving the territorial dispute between Russia and Japan has not been free of all obstacles. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe himself, at a conference held in Tokyo on February 7th, acknowledged that signing a peace treaty with Russia would not be easy.

The biggest challenge now is that both the Japanese Prime Minister and the Russian President remain quite resolute in pursuing the "no territorial exchange" stance. Therefore, what can be expected now is the extent to which each side will make concessions within the "special framework" that both sides are aiming for in the upcoming negotiations.

Russia and Japan are aiming to resolve their dispute over the Southern Kuril Islands/Northern Territories through economic cooperation. Photo: TASS

It's a win-win situation.

Currently, strengthening economic cooperation to resolve disputes is considered to be strategically beneficial for both Russia and Japan. In the context of China's rise in the region, including its increasingly assertive actions in territorial disputes with Japan in the East China Sea, strengthening relations with Russia could somewhat alleviate Japan's anxieties about the risk of clandestine dealings between Russia and China.

Japan's desire to improve relations with Russia is also part of a strategy to balance its relationships with major powers, rather than relying solely on US policy as before. Furthermore, Japan desperately needs Russia's support to become a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council in the future.

For Russia, strengthening ties with Japan aligns with its "Eastward" policy – ​​a region considered the most developed in the 21st century. Furthermore, President Putin has made no secret of his determination to establish around Russia "an ambitious new international order."

And this international order will require not only deeper and more effective Russian involvement in international hotspots, but also strengthened relations with major, influential regional powers such as Japan and China. More concrete steps towards a warmer Russia-Japan relationship are expected to be discussed by the leaders of the two countries during Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's upcoming visit to Russia.

Thuy Ngoc