Will Russia defy US sanctions to complete Nord Stream 2?

Experts work on the Allseas subsea pipeline installation vessel Solitaire in September 2019. Photo: Reuters

According to RT, the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, a joint project between Russian energy giant Gazprom and five European companies, was sanctioned by the US Congress last December. The US State Department then issued an ultimatum to European companies involved in the project: “immediately cease all activities related to its construction.”

The warning was enough to deter Swiss pipeline builder Allseas Group SA, and for the rest, German business newspaper Handelsblatt reported this month that a bill for further sanctions is being considered in Washington.

With about 100 miles of pipeline left to complete, US Energy Secretary Dan Brouillette told Bloomberg on February 15 that “there would be a long delay, because Russia does not have the technology” to complete the pipeline without Allseas’ expertise.

But on February 16, speaking to Russia's RBK business news channel, Gazprom spokesman Sergei Kupriyanov replied: "Never say never."

US sanctions efforts may delay the pipeline’s completion, but Kupriyanov may be proven right. Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak announced late last year that the remaining 100 miles would be completed by a Russian pipelaying vessel, which is currently en route to the North Sea from Russia’s east coast. Moscow now estimates the pipeline will be completed by early 2021 at the latest.

Once completed, Nord Stream 2 will supply Europe with up to 55 billion cubic meters of natural gas per year, on top of the 55 billion cubic meters per year that has been pumped through Nord Stream 1 since 2011. Completion of the pipeline would transform Germany into a regional gas hub, and would push Washington out of supplying Europe’s gas needs.

The Trump administration has sought to persuade European nations to ditch Russian gas with the promise of “molecules of freedom” – liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipped across the Atlantic.

However, Washington’s proposal has received little attention in Europe, due to its higher costs compared to Russian products. While Poland has increased its imports of US gas, German Chancellor Angela Merkel has criticized US sanctions and pledged to support Nord Stream 2 until its completion. The only European countries that have sided with Washington are Ukraine and Poland, which currently charge Russia transit fees for operating the pipeline on their territory.

The project “will be completed despite all these threats,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov asserted in December. “European countries understand their commercial interests… and they are interested in ensuring long-term energy security.”