Russia, China, and India: Cracks and Strategic Calculations

RUSSIA-CHINA CRACK

The Russia-China relationship has consistently been described in terms of "warming" and "unprecedented" intensity, and recently the two countries pledged to maintain a "comprehensive strategic partnership." The leaders of the two nations have become increasingly close, meeting more than 30 times since 2013.

Russian President Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping frequently praise the unprecedentedly warm Russia-China relationship. Photo: Xinhua

The Russia-China alliance was formed with the goal of containing the influence of the US, curbing declining oil prices, and expanding trade relations.

A "self-serving" alliance between Russia and China has formed in recent years, centered on three pillars: containing US influence, the decline in oil prices, and expanding trade relations. Western sanctions following Russia's annexation of Crimea have pushed Russia closer to China. Russian experts point out that Russia-China trade has doubled to $108 billion. The Russian Central Bank has increased its reserves of Chinese currency from less than 1% to over 13%, and China has surpassed Germany as the main supplier of technology and industrial plant operations in Russia. For its part, Russia has been very cautious in its statements on issues most sensitive to Beijing, such as the deployment of Huawei's 5G network, the Hong Kong issue, and Covid-19.

Despite appearing warm, the Russia-China relationship has actually begun to show cracks, even as both sides have tried to resolve them. The pillars of the relationship are not as solid as they seem, and these cracks are deepening due to historical differences related to the Vladivostok region, Russian arms deals with India, and Russia's delay in delivering the S-400 missile system to Beijing.

Disagreements over Vladivostok have provoked a strong reaction from the Chinese public after the Russian embassy posted a video commemorating the city's 160th anniversary. Some Chinese people argue that Beijing should respond to the post by stating its position on Crimea, given that China has maintained neutrality since 2014. This incident is just one of the practical signs that territorial disputes continue and are becoming a barrier in Russia-China relations.

The city of Vladivostok, located in Russia's Far East, is considered to have a territorial dispute with China. Photo: Getty

Moscow also faced a fiery reaction from Beijing when it increased arms sales to New Delhi, especially after military clashes on the border between China and India in the Himalayas. Citing comments from Chinese netizens, the South China Morning Post reported: “While fighting an opponent, how would you feel if your friends gave your opponent a knife?” Although Russian arms sales to India have actually decreased significantly from their peak of $3.2 billion in 2005, analysts acknowledge that defense issues have created rifts in the Russia-China relationship.

Another rift in Russia-China relations is the agreement to supply China with Russia's S-400 missile defense system. This is Russia's most advanced weapon, capable of destroying targets at a range of 400km and an altitude of 30km. Last month, Moscow confirmed that this transfer had been "temporarily suspended." Even more angering China is Russia's push to deliver the S-400 to India. Although Russia refused on August 24th and was unable to deliver the S-400 to India in October 2020 as planned, instead delaying it until 2021, China argues that this shows Russia is prioritizing India's interests over China's, contradicting its commitments to strengthening Russia-China security relations.

LONG-STANDING TRADITIONAL RELATIONSHIP

Unlike with China, the historical relationship between Russia and India spans over seven decades. The strategic partnership with Russia is based on a fundamental absence of conflicting interests, with its strongest pillar being defense and security. Although New Delhi has actively diversified its arms procurement from other countries, 70% of India's defense equipment is supplied by Russia.

The S-400 missile defense system is Russia's most advanced weapon, coveted by many nations. Photo: TASS

Russia views arms sales to India as a way to balance China's growing power.

Dmitry Stefanovich, a researcher at the Center for International Security at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences, points out that Russia had been supplying weapons to India long before the bloody clashes in the Himalayas. Most of India's strategic weapons, from aircraft carriers to nuclear attack submarines, are imported from Russia.

Professor Rityusha Tiwary at the Institute of Chinese Studies of the University of New Delhi believes that Russia views arms sales to India as a way to balance China's growing power.

For India, Russia plays a crucial role not only as a regular and reliable defense supplier but also in the political sphere. New Delhi's decision to maintain close ties with Moscow is not merely a choice, but a necessity, as it believes Moscow is the leverage and influence needed to shape and change Beijing's rigid stance in the border dispute.

Most recently, India has expressed its desire for Russia to join the US-led Indo-Pacific initiative, a strategic alliance seen as countering China. Just as India supports Russia's Greater Eurasia project with its "Look East" policy, India wants Russia to also support the Indo-Pacific group, rather than viewing it merely as a US strategy to divide the region.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and Chinese President Xi Jinping at a trilateral meeting during the G20 Summit in Osaka, Japan, in June 2019. Photo: Getty

Chinese scholars have called this idea a serious "betrayal of China" if Russia were to participate. However, Dmitry Stefanovich, a researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences, believes that Russia will not participate because "Russia trusts regional organizations and comprehensive cooperation methods." Furthermore, and most importantly, Russia will "not turn itself into a vassal of the United States," according to Victor Gao, a professor at Soochow University.

Unstable Triangle of Relationships

Despite numerous overlapping disagreements, Russia, China, and India are considered a "strategic triangle" with a trilateral coordination mechanism (RIC), which is expected to elevate the status of "each vertex of the triangle".

However, the alignment of this "strategic triangle" remains awkward, and the relationship is always precarious. All three countries are pursuing a pragmatic foreign policy, seeking to expand their international influence, and in many cases, the strategic calculations of one country clash with the national interests of another.

The trilateral cooperation mechanism between Russia, China, and India is expected to create a strategic triangle. (Illustrative image from the Internet)

Nevertheless, maintaining the current "triangular" relationship is likely to remain the goal of all three parties, as it can create a geopolitical counterweight in the region and significantly enhance each country's voice. The biggest challenge in maintaining RIC consensus is the border tension between China and India. If the conflict continues, it is possible that India will prioritize its foreign policy to participate in new US-led initiatives. This would be an unpleasant scenario for both Russia and China.