Russia - China - India: Cracks and strategic calculations

RUSSIA-CHINA RIFLE

Russia-China relations have been described as “warm” and “unprecedented,” and the two countries recently pledged to maintain a “comprehensive strategic partnership.” The leaders of the two countries have grown increasingly close, meeting more than 30 times since 2013.

Russian President Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping have frequently praised the unprecedented warmth of Russia-China relations. Photo: Xinhua

The Russia-China alliance was formed with the aim of containing US influence, the decline in oil prices and expanding trade relations.

A “half-hearted” Russia-China alliance has formed in recent years with three pillars: containing US influence, falling oil prices and expanding trade relations. Western sanctions after Russia’s annexation of Crimea have pushed Russia closer to China. Russian experts point out that Russia-China trade has doubled to $108 billion. The Russian Central Bank has increased China’s currency reserves from less than 1% to over 13% and China has surpassed Germany as the main supplier of technology and industrial plant operations in Russia. For its part, Russia has been very measured in its statements on issues that Beijing is most sensitive about, such as Huawei’s 5G network deployment, Hong Kong and Covid-19.

Despite their seemingly warm relationship, cracks have begun to appear in the Russia-China relationship, despite efforts by both sides to resolve them. The pillars on which the relationship is built are not that solid, and have been further strained by historical differences over the Vladivostok region, Russian arms sales to India, and Russia’s delay in delivering the S-400 missile system to Beijing.

Disagreements over Vladivostok have sparked a backlash in China after the Russian embassy posted a video celebrating the city’s 160th anniversary. Some Chinese said Beijing should respond to the post by stating its stance on Crimea, which has been neutral since 2014. The incident is just one of the practical signs that the territorial dispute has not stopped and is becoming a barrier in Russia-China relations.

Vladivostok, a city in Russia's Far East, is considered to be the site of many territorial disputes with China. Photo: Getty

Moscow has also received a heated response from Beijing for increasing its arms sales to New Delhi, especially after a border clash between China and India in the Himalayas. Citing comments from Chinese netizens, the South China Morning Post said: “While fighting an opponent, how would you feel if your friend gave him a knife?” Despite the fact that Russian arms sales to India have fallen significantly since their peak of $3.2 billion in 2005, analysts acknowledge that defense issues have created a rift in the Sino-Russian relationship.

Another crack in Russia-China relations is the agreement to supply Russia's S-400 missile defense system to China. This is Russia's most advanced weapon, capable of destroying targets at a distance of 400km and an altitude of 30km. Last month, Moscow confirmed that this transfer had been "paused". What angered China even more is that Russia is pushing to deliver the S-400 to India. Although Russia refused on August 24 and could not deliver the S-400 to India in October 2020 as planned, but had to wait until 2021, China believes that this shows that Russia is putting India's interests ahead of China's, and goes against its commitments to strengthen Russia-China security relations.

LONG-STANDING TRADITIONAL RELATIONSHIP

Unlike China, the historical relationship between Russia and India has lasted for more than seven decades. The strategic partnership with Russia is based on a fundamental lack of conflict of interests, with the strongest pillar being defense and security. Although New Delhi has actively diversified its arms purchases from other countries, 70% of India's defense equipment is supplied by Russia.

The S-400 missile defense system is Russia's most advanced weapon that many countries want to possess. Photo: TASS

Russia sees arms sales to India as a way to balance China's growing power.

Dmitry Stefanovich, a researcher at the Center for International Security at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences, pointed out that Russia had been supplying weapons to India long before the bloody clash in the Himalayas. Most of India's strategic weapons, from aircraft carriers to nuclear attack submarines, are imported from Russia.

Professor Rityusha Tiwary at the Institute of Chinese Studies at New Delhi University said that Russia sees arms sales to India as a way to balance China's growing power.

For India, Russia has not only served as a regular and reliable defense supplier, but also in the political sphere. New Delhi’s decision to maintain close ties with Moscow was not only a matter of choice, but also a matter of necessity, as New Delhi believes that Moscow has the leverage and influence to shape and change Beijing’s hardline stance on the border dispute.

Most recently, India expressed its desire for Russia to join the US-led Indo-Pacific initiative, a strategic alliance that is seen as a counter to China. Just as India supports Russia’s Greater Eurasia project with its “Look East” policy, India wants Russia to support the Indo-Pacific grouping, instead of simply viewing the idea as a US strategy to divide the region.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping at a trilateral meeting within the framework of the G20 Summit in Osaka, Japan in June 2019. Photo: Getty

Chinese scholars have called the idea a serious “betrayal of China” if Russia were to join. However, Dmitry Stefanovich, a researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences, said Russia would not participate because “Russia believes in regional organizations and comprehensive forms of cooperation.” More importantly, Russia would “not turn itself into a vassal of the United States,” according to Victor Gao, a professor at Soochow University.

UNSABLE RELATIONSHIP TRIANGLE

Despite many overlapping disagreements, Russia - China - India are considered a "strategic triangle" with a tripartite coordination mechanism (RIC), which is expected to elevate the position of "each vertex of the triangle".

However, the connection of this “strategic triangle” still appears awkward and the relationship is always in a precarious state. All three countries are implementing a pragmatic foreign policy, all seek to expand their international influence, and in many cases the strategic calculations of one country conflict with the national interests of another.

The three-way cooperation mechanism between Russia, China and India is expected to create a strategic triangle. Illustrative photo from the Internet

However, maintaining the current “triangular” relationship is probably still pursued by all three parties, because it can more or less create a geopolitical counterbalance in the region, and significantly enhance the voice of each country. The biggest challenge in maintaining the RIC consensus is the border tension between China and India. If the conflict persists, it is possible that India will have foreign policy priorities to participate in new initiatives led by the US. This will be an unpleasant scenario for both Russia and China./.