Russia - Ukraine: A new gas "war" erupts.

As feared ever since the "Maidan Revolution," which brought with it a "wind of Western democracy," overthrew pro-Russian Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, Kyiv and Moscow have entered a new gas "war."

A gas transit station in Ukraine, transporting natural gas from Russia to Europe.

The latest negotiations on this issue between Russia and Ukraine, mediated by the European Union (EU), ended "without results" or any agreement on when the two sides could meet again.

In a move that was anticipated, Russia's state-owned gas giant Gazprom announced a shift to a prepayment system in its gas supply contract with Ukraine's Naftogaz, due to the latter's failure to pay its debts by the deadline set by Russia. According to Gazprom's decision, starting at 10:00 AM (Moscow time, or 1:00 PM Hanoi time) on June 16th – the deadline considered the "D-Day" for Kyiv to settle its debts – Gazprom will apply the prepayment method to Naftogaz. This means Ukraine will have to pay on the last day of each month for the amount of gas it intends to purchase for the following month.

According to analysts, switching to a prepayment system would destabilize the supply of natural gas from Russia to Ukraine. Currently, the Black Sea nation's economy is in dire straits. A $4.458 billion debt to Gazprom hangs over it, and its treasury is empty, relying on external assistance. Meanwhile, the demand for prepayment for the gas Ukraine purchases may not be the final demand Moscow will make to its neighbor, which is striving to break away from Russia's orbit. Due to strained relations with Russia, Ukraine has also prepared contingency plans in case Moscow completely stops gas supplies and asserts it can secure its necessary gas supply for the next few months thanks to its reserves and domestic production. However, if no compromise is reached with Gazprom, the upcoming winter will undoubtedly be extremely difficult for Ukraine.

Significantly, any upcoming gas negotiations are also at risk of collapse due to escalating tensions in eastern Ukraine, following the downing of a Ukrainian military transport plane by separatists, which killed 49 servicemen. After the incident, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko stated he would take stronger countermeasures. The attack also escalated diplomatic tensions between Russia and the West – countries that had just warned Moscow of consequences if it failed to stop the flow of weapons across the border. Meanwhile, Russia has repeatedly called on the Ukrainian authorities to end military action in the southeast, an area with large Russian and Russian-speaking populations, and urged Ukraine to engage in national dialogue and ensure the rights of "all Ukrainian citizens."

Once again, energy security, a thorny issue for the EU in recent years, could send its leaders into a frenzy. The role of mediator is proving a major challenge for the EU due to the complexities of intertwined bilateral and multilateral relationships, interwoven with economic and political interests. In other words, the trilateral relationship between Russia, Ukraine, and the EU is currently a tangled mess with many difficult knots to untangle. Certainly, many European countries do not want to return to the freezing winter days of five years ago, when all four strategic gas pipelines from Russia through Ukraine to the Old Continent were completely shut down. More than 15 countries, from the Balkans to Central and Southern Europe and even Western Europe, had to endure bone-chilling temperatures below -25°C without gas for heating.

At this point, determining "who is right and who is wrong" is a process that will only complicate matters further. Because whatever the underlying causes of this crisis may be, Moscow's hardline stance demanding that Kyiv pay off its gas debt is a major blow to the Ukrainian economy and a price Kyiv must consider if it continues its "Westernization" policy.

According to HNM