The end of IS?

London-based financial firm IHS Markit has just released a report stating that after three years of claiming hegemony, IS has lost 60% of its occupied territory and its financial revenue has decreased by 80%.

The recapture of the Grand al-Nuri mosque in the Iraqi city of Mosul is seen by the Iraqi army as a symbolic victory for the fall of the self-proclaimed Islamic State (IS). Photo: Reuters

Based on research data and on-the-ground situations, IHS Markit researchers believe that the terrorist organization Islamic State (IS) will not be able to continue to exist in the fourth year since it declared the establishment of its self-proclaimed state.

Iraq declares IS has collapsed

The IHS Markit report was released on June 29, right at the time when the Iraqi government and military declared that IS had come to an end: “Their imaginary state has collapsed” - as Major General Yahya Rasool, spokesman for the Iraqi military, said.

After eight months of fierce campaign to eradicate IS, on June 29, the Iraqi government army achieved an important symbolic victory, capturing the shrine right in the heart of IS's self-proclaimed capital in Mosul.

The Iraqi government hopes the long battle to retake Mosul from IS will end in the coming days as the remaining terrorist forces are crushed in the few remaining areas of the ancient city.

Also in the report, IHS Markit said that as of June 26, 2017, IS was occupying about 36,200km², equivalent to the area of ​​the Kingdom of Belgium or the US state of Maryland.

The figures show that the terrorist group has lost about 40% of the territory it held since early 2017, and about 60% since the researchers first estimated its territory in January 2015. At that time, IS controlled 90,800 square kilometers in Iraq and Syria.

Along with the gradual loss of controlled territory, IS's financial revenue has also decreased significantly.

According to the report, IS's average monthly income has dropped significantly from $81 million in Q2 2015 to $16 million in Q2 2017, equivalent to an 80% decrease.

This decline can be seen as a state of “unstoppable decline”. If we look back at the time of its rise, according to a 2014 report by Thomson Reuters, IS owned a huge asset of more than 2,000 billion USD and an annual income of 2.9 billion USD.

This reality is caused by a sharp decline in all of IS's main sources of revenue: oil exploitation and smuggling, tightening "taxes" and confiscating people's assets, and many other illegal activities.

However, IHS Markit experts also warned that IS still has considerable resistance.

The loss of much of the territory it once held in Syria and Iraq could also prompt it to step up attacks abroad, as it has done in Europe.

“The threat of IS terrorist attacks is likely to increase before it recedes,” said Firas Modad, a senior Middle East analyst at IHS Markit.

Iran confirms death of IS leader

In another related development, on June 29, the assistant to Iran's supreme leader Ali Khamenei, Mr. Ali Shirazi, confirmed the information about "the death of this terrorist (al-Baghdadi) is certain".

IFP News (Iran) quoted Mr. Ali Shirazi with information similar to the announcement of the Russian Ministry of Defense on June 16 about al-Baghdadi's death.

Accordingly, the assistant to Iran's supreme leader said Baghdadi was one of more than 300 IS militants, including many mid-level commanders, who were killed in a series of Russian airstrikes near the city of Raqqa, Syria.

If the IS leader is indeed dead, his replacement will be one of two senior subordinates who were Iraqi army officers under Saddam Hussein: Iyad al-Obaidi and Ayad al-Jumaili.

Obaidi, around 50 years old, has been serving as a “minister of war”, while the younger Jumaili, around 40 years old, is the head of IS’s Amniya security force.

According to TTO