Nghe An is effectively utilizing its favorable demographic structure.

On the occasion of Vietnam Population Day (December 26th), Nghe An Newspaper had a conversation with Professor Dr. Nguyen Dinh Cu - Chairman of the Scientific Council, Institute for Population, Family and Children Research, former Director of the Institute of Population & Social Issues, National Economics University.

The decrease in birth rates has helped reduce pressure on the environment, education, and healthcare, creating conditions for children to study in quality educational environments. Photo: MH

PV:Professor Nguyen Dinh Cu, this year Vietnam is celebrating the 60th anniversary of the Population Sector (December 26, 1961 - December 26, 2021) with the theme "60 Years of the Population Sector - For a Sustainable Development Vietnam". Over more than half a century, in your opinion, what is the most significant achievement of population work?

Professor Dr. Nguyen Dinh Cu:In the latter half of the last century, Vietnam's population was relatively small, but the birth rate was very high and increasing rapidly. In 1960, Vietnam had only 30.2 million people, but on average, each woman gave birth to about 7 children. The annual population growth rate reached 3.8%, meaning the population doubled every 19 years.

Recognizing the significant impact of population on development, on December 26, 1961, the Government Council issued Decision 216/CP on "guided childbirth." Since then, population policy has been a guiding principle throughout the documents of all Party Congresses.

After decades of persistent efforts and promotion of family planning, the reproductive situation in our country has undergone fundamental changes. The average number of children per mother decreased from approximately 7 in the 1960s to 2.1 (replacement level) in 2005, 10 years earlier than the target set in Resolution No. 04-NQ/HNTW; this low birth rate has been maintained to this day.

Compared to the rest of the world, in 2005, developing countries still had relatively high fertility rates: 2.8 children per woman; in particular, least developed countries had 4.7 children per woman, which was much higher than Vietnam.

Professor Dr. Nguyen Dinh Cu, Chairman of the Scientific Council, Institute for Population, Family and Children Research, former Director of the Institute of Population and Social Issues, National Economics University. Photo: MH

So, todayVietnamese womenThe number of children born is now less than one-third of what it was half a century ago. This is truly a revolution in the field of reproduction, one of the most profound social transformations in Vietnam in the past half-century. For its outstanding achievements in family planning, the United Nations awarded Vietnam the Population Prize in 1999.

PV:Professor, how has the reduction in the average birth rate from 7 children per couple to just 2 children per couple contributed to "sustainable development in Vietnam"?

Professor Dr. Nguyen Dinh Cu:Reducing birth rates has a tremendous impact on environmental, economic, and social aspects at both the macro and micro levels. Firstly, it affects resources and the environment. As I mentioned, if the annual population growth rate is 3.8%, then this year our country will have at least 240 million people. Let's imagine what our resources and environment would be like if we had over 200 million people this year. Fortunately, thanks to early promotion of family planning and birth rate reduction, Vietnam has controlled the "population explosion" commonly seen in developing countries.

Residents of Tuong Duong district learn about the implementation of population policies. Photo: MH

Therefore, in 2020, our country had only 97.3 million people. In a situation of "limited land and a large population" (currently, our population density is nearly 5 times higher than the world average and more than 10 times higher than developed countries), the achievement of reducing birth rates and controlling population growth has made a significant contribution to protecting resources, preserving the environment, and achieving rapid and sustainable national development.

Secondly, economically, at the macro level, the declining birth rate and the decrease in the population under 15 years old have dramatically changed the age structure of our country's population. In 1979, the proportion of children under 15 was very high, at 43%; meanwhile, the proportion of the population of working age (15 to 64 years old) was low, only 52%. In 2019, these proportions were 24% and 68% respectively, forming a "golden population" structure! Scientists estimate that this "golden population" structure alone contributed an average of 1.2% to Vietnam's economic growth each year during the period 2009-2019.

At the micro level, birth rates are declining, and family sizes are becoming smaller. Surveys on living standards from 1992 to the present consistently show that smaller families tend to have higher average monthly income and expenditure per person. This has significantly contributed to improving living standards and reducing poverty.

Making good use of the demographic dividend will be a driving force for development. This demographic structure only appears once and lasts for about 35-45 years in a nation's history. Photo: MH

From a social perspective, the declining birth rate has led to a decrease in the population of primary and secondary school age. This has eased population pressure on the education sector, significantly reducing many indicators such as the number of students per school, the number of classes per school, and the student-to-teacher ratio, thereby creating conditions for improving the quality of education. Higher education provides a solid foundation for women to enhance their capabilities and status, and to achieve gender equality.

In addition to the aforementioned impacts, actual data shows that a decrease in birth rates has a positive impact on many other aspects of social life, such as: reducing malnutrition rates, child mortality, increasing life expectancy... and positively impacting the sustainable development of the country.

PV:We have often heard about the concept of "golden population"Professor, could you please explain this concept more clearly? What solutions do we need to effectively utilize the advantages of a 'golden population'?"

Professor Dr. Nguyen Dinh Cu:From an economic perspective, the population is divided into 3 groups: (1) Children - those under 15 years old, (2) Working-age population (those aged 15 to 64 years old) and (3) Elderly (those aged 65 years and over).

A country's economic development is closely dependent on its "working-age population." When the population aged 15-64 accounts for at least 66% of the total population—meaning there are only one child or elderly person for every two working-age individuals—it's called a "golden population structure." This structure is very rare. It only occurs once and lasts for about 35-45 years in a nation's history. Therefore, it is as precious and rare as "gold." Vietnam entered the "golden population structure" phase in 2006; this period is projected to last approximately 40 years.

Many countries experienced miraculous economic growth during periods of "golden demographic structure." Scientists estimate that this "golden" demographic structure alone contributed an average of 1.2% to Vietnam's economic growth each year during the period 2009-2019.

Providing advice on contraceptive methods to residents of Mon Son commune, Con Cuong district. Photo: MH

However, it is important to emphasize that a "golden demographic structure" only refers to a high "proportion of the population in the economically active age group," and a large "number of people in the economically active age group" brings "potential" and "opportunities," but does not directly result in immediate economic growth and development.

To take advantage of the "golden demographic structure," we must also answer the following questions: What percentage of people in the "economically active age" are capable of working? What percentage of those "capable of working" are employed? What percentage of those "employed" work with high productivity and income?

PV:While the rest of the country has reached replacement level fertility, Nghe An still has a high birth rate, ranking second nationwide. Looking at the overall picture, how will this "lagging behind" situation affect the province's population management efforts?

Professor Nguyen Dinh Cu:In 2005, the national target of "Two children per family" was achieved. Meanwhile, by 2019, the average birth rate per woman of childbearing age in Nghe An province remained at 2.75 children (the second highest among provinces nationwide, after Ha Tinh province with 2.8 children per woman). Based on national experience, reducing the birth rate from 2.7 children per woman to 2.1 children per woman, as targeted, would require approximately 10 years (from 1996 to 2005). Therefore, even with intensified family planning efforts, Nghe An will need at least another 5 years to reach its birth rate target.

Implementing effective family planning is one of the two key tasks of the population sector in Nghe An province. Photo: MH

It is important to emphasize that it was only 12 years (2005-2017) after the whole country achieved the target of a low birth rate (an average of 2.1 children per woman) that Resolution No. 21/NQ-TW officially set out the policy of "continuing to shift the focus of population policy from family planning to population and development". Although implementing the same policy, while the national goal was to "maintain a stable replacement birth rate," Nghe An's goal was to: Continue to promote family planning to soon achieve the replacement birth rate.

In addition, Nghe An still needs to implement solutions toimproving the quality of the populationMinimize gender imbalance at birth; effectively utilize the demographic dividend and adapt to aging.populationA rational population distribution contributes to the rapid and sustainable development of our province. This shows the significantly greater difficulties faced by Nghe An in population management compared to the rest of the country.

PV:Thank you, Professor!