Nghe An is effectively exploiting its golden population structure.

On the occasion of Vietnam Population Day (December 26), Nghe An Newspaper had a conversation with Prof. Dr. Nguyen Dinh Cu - Chairman of the Scientific Council, Institute for Population, Family and Children Research, former Director of the Institute of Population & Social Issues, National Economics University.

The birth rate reduction has helped reduce pressure on the environment, education, and healthcare, creating conditions for children to study in a quality educational environment. Photo: MH

PV:Dear Professor, Dr. Nguyen Dinh Cu, this year our country celebrates the 60th anniversary of the Vietnam Population Sector (December 26, 1961 - December 26, 2021) with the theme "60 years of the Population Sector - For a sustainable development of Vietnam". After more than half a century, according to the Professor, which result of population work is the "most profound highlight"?

Professor Nguyen Dinh Cu:In the second half of the last century, Vietnam's population was not large but the birth rate was very high and growing very quickly. In 1960, Vietnam had only 30.2 million people, but on average each woman gave birth to about 7 children. The annual population growth rate was up to 3.8%, meaning that every 19 years the population doubled.

Recognizing the strong impact of population on development, on December 26, 1961, the Government Council issued Decision 216/CP on “guided birth”. Since then, population policy has been like a “red thread” throughout the documents of all Party Congresses.

After decades of perseverance and promotion of Family Planning (FP), the fertility situation in our country has fundamentally changed. The average number of children per mother decreased from about 7 children in the 60s to 2.1 children (replacement fertility) in 2005, 10 years earlier than the target set by Resolution No. 04 - NQ/HNTW; this low fertility rate has been maintained until now.

Compared to the world, in 2005, the birth rate in developing countries was still quite high: 2.8 children/woman; in particular, in underdeveloped countries it was 4.7 children/woman, which is much higher than Vietnam.

Prof. Dr. Nguyen Dinh Cu, Chairman of the Scientific Council, Institute for Population, Family and Children Studies, former Director of the Institute of Population and Social Issues, National Economics University. Photo: MH

So, todayVietnamese womenThe number of children born is less than one-third of that of half a century ago. This is truly a revolution in the field of reproduction, one of the most profound social changes in Vietnam in the past half century. With outstanding achievements in family planning, in 1999, the United Nations awarded the Population Prize to Vietnam.

PV:How has the reduction from an average birth rate of 7 children per couple to only 2 children per couple contributed to "sustainable development of Vietnam", Professor?

Professor Nguyen Dinh Cu:The decline in birth rate has a huge impact on the environment, economy, and society at both the macro and micro levels. First, it affects resources and the environment. As I said, if the annual population growth rate is 3.8%, this year our country will have at least 240 million people. Let's imagine, this year our country has more than 200 million people, what will happen to resources and the environment? Fortunately, thanks to early promotion of family planning and birth reduction, Vietnam has controlled the "population explosion" situation commonly seen in developing countries.

People of Tuong Duong district learn about the implementation of population policy. Photo: MH

Therefore, in 2020, our country had only 97.3 million people. In the context of "narrow land, crowded people" (currently, our country's population density is nearly 5 times higher than the world and more than 10 times higher than developed countries), the achievement of reducing birth rate and controlling population explosion has greatly contributed to protecting resources, preserving the environment, and developing the country rapidly and sustainably.

Second, in terms of economy, at the macro level, the declining birth rate and the decrease in the population under 15 years old have caused a drastic change in the age structure of our country. In 1979, the proportion of children under 15 years old was very high, up to 43%; meanwhile, the proportion of the population in the working age (from 15 to 64 years old) was low, only 52%. In 2019, the above proportions were 24% and 68%, respectively, forming a "golden population" structure! Scientists calculate that the "golden" population structure alone contributed to Vietnam's economic growth by an average of 1.2% per year in the period 2009-2019.

At the micro level, the birth rate is decreasing, the family size is getting smaller. The results of the survey on the living standards of the population from 1992 to the present show that the smaller the family size, the higher the average income and expenditure per person per month. That has really contributed to improving the living standards of the population and eliminating hunger and reducing poverty.

Making good use of the golden population structure will be the driving force for development. This structure only appears once and lasts for about 35 - 45 years in the development history of a country. Photo: MH

Socially, the birth rate has decreased, so the population of high school age has decreased. This has relieved the population pressure on the education sector, significantly reducing many indicators, such as: Number of students/school, number of classes/school, student/teacher ratio... creating conditions to improve the quality of education. Improving education is a solid foundation for women to improve their capacity, status, and achieve gender equality.

In addition to the above impacts, actual data shows that the decline in birth rate has positive impacts on many other aspects of social life, such as: reducing malnutrition rates, child mortality, improving people's life expectancy... and positively impacting the country's sustainable development.

PV:For a long time we have often heard about the concept of "golden population”. Could you please explain this concept more clearly? To effectively take advantage of the “golden population”, what solutions do we need?

Professor Nguyen Dinh Cu:From an economic perspective, the population is divided into three groups: (1) Children - people under 15 years old, (2) Working population (people from 15 to 64 years old) and (3) Elderly group (people 65 years old and over).

The economic development of a country depends closely on the group: "The working population". When the population group (15-64 years old) accounts for at least 66% of the total population, meaning that for every 2 working people there is 1 child or elderly person, it is called the "golden population structure". This structure is very rare. It only appears once and lasts for about 35 - 45 years in the development history of a country. Therefore, it is as precious and rare as "gold". Vietnam has entered the "Golden population structure" period since 2006; it is predicted that this period will last about 40 years.

Many countries have had miraculous economic growth during the “golden population structure” period. Scientists calculate that the “golden” population structure alone contributed to Vietnam’s economic growth by an average of 1.2% per year in the 2009-2019 period.

Consulting on contraceptive measures for people in Mon Son commune - Con Cuong. Photo: MH

However, it should be emphasized that the "golden population structure" is only a "high proportion of the population in the economically active age", and a large "number of people in the economically active age" brings "capabilities" and "opportunities" but does not directly result in economic growth and development.

To take advantage of the “golden population structure” opportunity, we must also answer the following questions: What percentage of people in the “economically active age” are able to work? What percentage of people “able to work” have jobs? What percentage of “employed people” work with high productivity and income?

PV:While the whole country has reached the replacement level of fertility, Nghe An is still a province with the second highest fertility rate in the country. Looking at the general situation, how will this “lateness” of Nghe An affect the population work of the province?

Professor Nguyen Dinh Cu:In 2005, the whole country achieved the goal of "Each family has 2 children". Meanwhile, by 2019, the average number of children per woman of childbearing age in Nghe An was still at 2.75 children/woman (the second highest compared to other provinces in the country, only after Ha Tinh province with 2.8 children/woman). According to the experience of the whole country, to reduce the birth rate from 2.7 children/woman to 2.1 children/woman as the set target, Vietnam needed about 10 years (from 1996 to 2005). Thus, even if family planning is promoted, Nghe An will need at least 5 more years to reach the birth rate target.

Implementing family planning well is one of the two tasks of Nghe An population sector. Photo: MH

It should be emphasized that it was only after 12 years (2005 - 2017) since the whole country achieved the low fertility target (average 2.1 children/woman) that Resolution No. 21/NQ-TW officially proposed the policy of "continuing to shift the focus of population policy from family planning to population and development". Although implementing this policy, if the whole country's goal is to "steadily maintain the replacement fertility level", Nghe An must: Continue to promote family planning to soon achieve the replacement fertility level.

Besides, Nghe An still needs to implement solutions toimprove population quality; reduce gender imbalance at birth; effectively utilize the golden population structure, adapt to agingpopulation; reasonable population distribution, contributing to the rapid and sustainable development of our province. This shows the many difficulties of Nghe An's population work compared to the whole country.

PV:Thank you, Professor!