Nghe An will face prolonged severe heat

PV: 2020 is considered a year of unusual natural disasters, what is your prediction on this issue?

Mr. Nguyen Xuan Tien:In recent years, due to the impact of climate change, the average global temperature has been on a continuous upward trend. According to the forecast of the UK Meteorological Agency (Met Office), 2020 is likely to be one of the hottest years on record, with global temperatures rising by 1.1⁰C compared to the pre-industrial average, along with high atmospheric instability on a global and regional scale. This is a sign that the possibility of hydrometeorological disasters in 2020 will be fierce, complex, and unpredictable.

The 2020 storm season in the East Sea tends to be later than the average of many years and there is a possibility of about 11-13 storms and tropical depressions, of which about 5-6 will directly affect the mainland, concentrated in the Central and Southern regions in the second half of 2020.

Mr. Nguyen Xuan Tien - Deputy Director of the North Central Region Hydrometeorological Station.

PV: TYesFrom the beginning of 2020 until now, the whole country in general and Nghe An in particularExtreme weather phenomena, unusual heat waves and other dangerous weather conditions occur continuously: Hail, thunderstorms, lightning... Why does this phenomenon occur, sir?

Hailstorms in April 2020 damaged many crop areas in Ky Son district. Photo courtesy of Lu Phu

Mr. Nguyen Xuan Tien:Since the beginning of 2020, there have been 20 storms, whirlwinds, hail, lightning and strong gusts of wind in the North Central region, of which 16 occurred in Nghe An province.

In addition, there were 7 heat waves, especially the heat wave from May 4, which was extremely hot with the highest temperature of the day ranging from 39.5 to 41.5.⁰C, especially in Quy Hop and Tuong Duong 42.2 and 42.1⁰C, appeared on May 7, 2020.

The time when these phenomena appear is very rare, never happened in the history of observation... The reason is due to the impact of climate change, the instability of atmospheric circulation systems occurring on both global and regional scales. This has caused natural disasters to have unusual developments, not only occurring during the rainy and stormy season but also occurring all year round, even in months considered to have rare natural disasters like before.

In addition, according to folk experience, years with a leap month before the Dragon Boat Festival (the 5th lunar month) will have hot and dry weather; and years with leap months from June onwards will have a long rainy season, with many storms and big floods.

In May and the first days of June 2020 alone, Nghe An people had to endure a record-breaking heat wave with high temperatures. This was followed by drought that left fields parched, dams dry, many crops burned to death; people's lives were disrupted, and many areas suffered from a severe lack of water for daily use.

PV: For Nghe An in particular, what unusual weather will there be in the coming months, sir?

Rice fields in Hung Yen Bac commune, Hung Nguyen district are cracked. Photo: Quang A

Mr. Nguyen Xuan Tien:In the general context of climate change, from now until the end of the year, Nghe An will experience many heat waves, widespread heavy rains accompanied by thunderstorms, tornadoes, hail... Specifically, Nghe An is likely to be directly affected by 1-2 storms and tropical depressions. According to the assessment, the complicated floods in 2020 will also cause unusual developments in the water levels of rivers, especially flash floods on rivers and streams in mountainous areas.

The average temperature from June to September 2020 in Nghe An is generally 1.0 - 1.5 degrees higher than the average of many years in the same period.^oC (Average: 27.2 -28.2^oC). From October to November 2020, the temperature is generally at a level approximately equal to the average (average: 22.5 - 23.5^oC). Heat waves continue to occur until August 2020.

Total rainfall in June 2020 in Nghe An in particular was generally 10 - 25% lower than the average for the same period (average: 150 - 250mm); July - September and November 2020 were generally approximately the average (average 800 - 1200mm), in October in particular, total rainfall in the area was 10 - 20% higher than the average (average: 200 - 600mm, increasing gradually from North to South).

Accordingly, we have to face many severe heat waves and low rainfall, which have caused the water levels of most reservoirs and main rivers in the province to dry up. Therefore, the water shortage and prolonged drought have significantly affected the daily life and production of the people. Currently, the flow of water on the rivers is 35-45% lower than the same period last year, and it is forecasted that the drought will be severe and unpredictable.

PV: How will extreme weather like the above negatively impact agricultural production, sir?

In May 2020, due to the intense heat, many vegetable fields in Quynh Luu were burned and dried. Photo: Thanh Phuc

Mr. Nguyen Xuan Tien:The increase in temperature, unusual natural disasters such as storms, floods, tornadoes and hail greatly affect agricultural production.

First of all, the high temperature causes severe drought, the river system, lakes, streams and streams are all dry, many places have salty water sources, causing a serious shortage of water for agricultural production.

Second, the uneven distribution of rainfall over time; increased temperatures in the summer and large temperature differences in the winter cause delays in the growing season, reducing crop productivity and quality. Along with that, prolonged cold weather causes crops and livestock to die, reducing their ability to withstand the weather.

Third, unusual weather has damaged irrigation works, causing soil erosion, landslides, degradation, and loss of arable land, increasing the risk of livestock and poultry being swept away; creating favorable conditions for disease outbreaks in livestock and poultry...; destroyed traffic routes will negatively affect production activities as well as agricultural product consumption in the province.

Therefore, the agricultural sector needs to have proactive plans to respond and limit damage caused by natural disasters, especially being proactive in production to adapt to climate change...

Nam Mo River section passing through Chieu Luu commune (Ky Son) is "exposed to the bottom" (photo taken on May 30). Photo courtesy: Van Truong.

Mr. Nguyen Xuan Tien:In the coming time, we need to be on guard against strong storms; heavy rain causing flash floods in mountainous areas, inundation in plains and urban areas; major floods and the operation of reservoir systems; extreme weather phenomena such as thunderstorms, tornadoes, intense heat...

Due to the impact of climate change, dangerous hydrometeorological phenomena no longer follow the rules and can occur anytime, anywhere, so it requires authorities and people to regularly monitor and continuously update hydrometeorological forecasts and warnings.

PV: Thank you very much for this interview!