US Secretary of State meets Chinese officials: Reunion after tensions

The curtain falls on tension.

News that US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is planning a trip to Hawaii to meet with Chinese government officials began to emerge when Politico reported, citing sources familiar with the matter. The South China Morning Post reported on June 16 that Pompeo will meet with Yang Jiechi, former Chinese Foreign Minister and current Politburo member and Director of the Office of the Central Foreign Affairs Commission, on June 17. Although the Chinese Foreign Ministry has not confirmed the meeting in Hawaii, it has said that the two sides are continuing to keep in touch.

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is scheduled to meet with senior Chinese diplomat Yang Jiechi in Hawaii. Photo: AFP

The already tense relationship between Beijing and Washington reached a critical point in 2020, despite previous attempts to mend ties. Trump administration officials, led by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, have waged a war of words with China over the origins of the Covid-19 pandemic. Pompeo has claimed he has “enormous evidence” that Covid-19 originated in a laboratory in Wuhan, although US intelligence agencies and some allies say there is a lack of evidence.

The Trump administration has accused China of spreading the disease, and as punishment, it seems to have considered demanding compensation from China or canceling some of its government bonds. In addition, the US and China have also been at loggerheads over Hong Kong, protests over the death of George Floyd, and military activities in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea.

As the US and China are at the height of their war of accusations and words, Secretary of State Pompeo has been portrayed in Chinese state media as one of the worst diplomats in history. China even called Secretary of State Pompeo a “political virus”.

US - China war of words over Covid-19. Illustration photo: Knowledge @ Wharton

The mutual criticism has deepened the strategic competition. The mainstream view of the US is that China is essentially a competitor and an enemy. In contrast, China sees the US as a bad and weak country that is bullying to contain China. Moreover, when Covid-19 is gradually erasing President Trump's economic achievements, the US leader considers confronting China a central element of his re-election strategy to defeat Democratic candidate Joe Biden. But now, when President Trump realizes that confronting Beijing does not bring the expected value, he prioritizes economic recovery in the final months, before the election.

Lu Xiang, a researcher of state ideology at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that engaging in a blame game with China would not help Donald Trump’s presidential campaign or distract from the US’s handling of the pandemic. Therefore, the US government needs to take steps to ease bilateral tensions and create the necessary conditions to implement the phase one trade deal signed with Beijing earlier this year. The Hawaii Dialogue would be of great significance if the two sides could reach a consensus on bilateral relations, even if it was just a simple mention in a joint statement.

Can it be mended?

The economic relationship between the US and China has been in the making for decades, with the two countries becoming the world’s largest trading partners since 2014. But now, amid trade and technology wars, a pandemic, and strained diplomatic relations, observers say the two largest economies are caught in a seismic collision.

The US-China relationship has been tense since 2019 and shows no signs of cooling down. Photo: AFP

Therefore, the close economic relationship between the two powers is considered the most complicated bilateral relationship. In particular, for President Trump at this time, China's implementation of the first phase of the trade agreement with the US is a top priority. Because reaching the agreement is considered one of the great achievements of Mr. Trump's term. However, many signals seem to show that Beijing will not easily act as the White House owner wants. Therefore, the separation in US-China relations is something that will happen soon.

From an economic perspective, the US and China may no longer be “connected” in non-strategic aspects because the pandemic has unintentionally exposed some potential risks, especially supply chain risks. US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said that the crisis has shown the need for strong and diversified supply chains with reliable trading partners, and that total dependence on cheap imports for strategic products can make the economy vulnerable in times of crisis. Therefore, the market, as a solid foundation of trade relations, will be weakened.

Ahead of the planned meeting in Hawaii, in a video conference with Secretary of State Pompeo, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell dismissed the possibility that the EU would ally with the US to counter China. Both the EU and the US share concerns about China’s state-controlled economy. However, the EU refuses to follow Washington’s path.

“No matter who the next US president is, US-China relations will evolve in a competitive direction. This confrontation will shape the future world order.”

Mr. Josep Borrell - EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs

Vice Premier Liu He (left) and President Donald Trump at the signing ceremony of the phase 1 trade agreement at the White House on January 15. Photo: AFP

The pandemic has in fact created a sufficient “buffer” for the US-China relationship, but the bilateral trade relationship has not taken advantage of that and is on the decline, and will move in a more confrontational direction. All the current attention is on Beijing’s new fight against Covid-19, as well as the US election in November. Therefore, there are unlikely to be major changes in the foreign policies of the two countries. With such unpredictable uncertainties, the “phase 2” of the trade deal is uncertain.