The risk of US defeat in direct confrontation with Russia and China

"Washington's ability to defend its allies, partners and key interests is increasingly questioned. The US may struggle to win, or even lose, a war with China or Russia without increased investment,"CBS Newsciting the content of a report released by the US National Defense Strategy Commission (NDSC) last week.

The report was prepared by a group of 12 experts and former US national security officials after a year-long review of defense systems and the National Security Strategy published by the US Department of Defense in January 2018. The conclusions were drawn from interviews with many US defense and diplomatic officials, as well as research into documents provided by the Pentagon.

This report affirms that many of America's military advantages are gradually fading, even being erased, as opponents become increasingly clever, powerful, and ready to take more drastic actions.

"Russia and China are challenging the United States and its allies and partners on a scale far greater than any other adversary has faced in nearly 30 years. If the United States had to fight Russia in the Baltics or confront China over Taiwan, it could suffer a decisive military defeat," the authors said, noting that Moscow and Beijing are deploying a combination of economic, diplomatic, political and informational tools to achieve their goals.

"They learned what we did and learned from America's success. While we focused on counterinsurgency operations, they prepared for the kind of large-scale war between major powers that we have not focused on for a long time," said NDSC co-chair Eric Edelman.

Michael Morell, a member of the NDSC in charge of intelligence, said that America's adversaries have studied military intervention strategies after the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, aiming to develop asymmetric countermeasures and neutralize Washington's power.

"Ballistic missiles and anti-ship missiles in the anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) strategy make it difficult for the US to fight in the traditional way," Morell said.

The NDSC identified changing trends in the strategic environment facing the US, including the rise of powers such as Russia and China, as well as Washington’s rivals pursuing hypersonic weapons development. The military buildup of Iran and North Korea, and the threat from radical Islamic groups have also posed new challenges to the US in recent years.

Many of America’s adversaries are using “gray zone” tactics, using economic pressure, cyber attacks, media manipulation, paramilitary forces or proxies to counter the US, rather than risking a direct military conflict. “This makes it more difficult to attribute responsibility and retaliate against them,” the report said.

The erosion of key technological advantages such as hypersonic weapons and artificial intelligence, along with internal political conflicts, has made it impossible for the US to maintain a stable defense budget and has had to significantly cut military spending. "As the world becomes more unstable, the US has weakened its own defense. We have not provided enough financial resources for the Pentagon for a long time," Edelman commented.

The NDSC recommends that the US government increase its defense budget by 3-5% above inflation, or the Pentagon needs to change its global strategy and goals. "The US is facing a national security crisis, especially when facing multiple conflicts at the same time," the report stressed.