Nuclear attack imminent, as Crimea bridge bombed?
(Baonghean.vn) - It is worth mentioning that Ukraine has mentioned many times about attacking the Crimea bridge. And Russia has also warned that if Ukraine makes a move towards Crimea, it will immediately be the "end of the world" with a nuclear attack.
The war situation between Russia and Ukraine has just heated up, when a truck bomb exploded on the road and railway bridge connecting the Crimean peninsula with the Krasnodar region in southwestern Russia, causing a large fire. For Russia, Crimea is an inviolable holy land, and the Crimean bridge is also an entity with important strategic symbolic meaning. It is worth mentioning that Ukraine has repeatedly mentioned attacking the Crimean bridge. And Russia has also warned that if Ukraine makes a move towards Crimea, it will immediately be the "end of the world" with a nuclear attack. Now that the Crimean bridge has been severely damaged, and the possibility of being attacked cannot be ruled out, how will Russia react, and what steps will it take?
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| The Russian National Anti-Terrorism Committee said on October 8 that the bridge connecting the Crimean Peninsula with mainland Russia was damaged in a truck bomb attack. Photo: Reuters |
Crimea Bridge – an attractive military target
The Crimea Bridge, Europe’s longest bridge, was damaged and partially collapsed. The explosion also set fire to seven fuel tanks of a freight train running parallel to the road bridge, forcing Russian authorities to suspend operations on the Crimea Bridge. No one was injured in the incident and authorities were preparing to launch a ferry service while they assessed the damage to the bridge.
The Kerch Strait Bridge project began in 2015, after Russia annexed Crimea, and was completed in 2018. The multi-billion dollar bridge connects Crimea with the Krasnodar region in southwestern Russia, spanning the strait between the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov. At 19 km long, it is the longest bridge in Europe, allowing cars and trains to pass through. The bridge is used mainly for civilian traffic.
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Crimea Bridge, also known as Kerch Bridge - the longest sea-crossing bridge in Europe, connecting the Crimean peninsula with mainland Russia. Photo: Tass |
After launching a special military operation in Ukraine at the end of February, Russia used this bridge to transport armored vehicles into southern regions of Ukraine.
Therefore, during the more than 8 months of war, the Crimea bridge has long been a very attractive target for the Ukrainian army. Ukrainian officials have repeatedly threatened that the country's army will attack the Crimea bridge. In August, when explaining why Kiev wanted to attack the Crimea bridge, Mr. Mikhail Podolyak - advisor to the President of Ukraine - said that this is an illegal construction and is the main gateway providing logistics for the Russian army in Crimea. At that time, Mr. Podolyak also said that there would be more such attacks in the "next 2-3 months".
And now, when the Crimea bridge was bombed, Mr. Mikhail Podolyak commented: "The Crimea bridge explosion is just the beginning."
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Close-up of the explosion on the Crimea bridge. Photo: CNN |
Another top advisor to the Ukrainian president, Alexei Arestovich, has also said that Ukraine will attack the Crimean Bridge at the right time. However, Mr. Arestovich admitted that the weapons that the Ukrainian army possesses are technically incapable of reaching the strategic bridge, and that causing significant damage to the bridge would be a difficult task, even with weapons of sufficient range, because one of the 595 pillars would need to be destroyed. He claimed that the bridge was built in such a way that it would require the use of tactical nuclear weapons to collapse it.
Earlier, Ukrainian MP Alexei Goncharenko wrote on Telegram that Kiev had discussed the plan to attack the Crimean bridge with British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace on the sidelines of the NATO summit last June. Kiev also stated that the Ukrainian army could attack the vital Russian bridge if it had the necessary technical capabilities.
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The Crimean Bridge has 595 piers and was built in such a way that it would require the use of tactical nuclear weapons to collapse them. Photo: Wikipedia |
Crimean and Russian officials have repeatedly warned that the attack on the Crimean Bridge would be nothing less than an act of terrorism. The Kremlin has said all necessary measures will be taken to ensure the safety of the bridge. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said in mid-June that Moscow “is aware and takes note” of the threats from Kiev. Peskov said that the security of the Crimean Bridge and the entire peninsula is guaranteed by the Russian armed forces.
The culmination of Russia's warning of deterrence if it crossed the red line was in July 2022, when Deputy Chairman of the Russian National Security Council Dmitry Medvedev said that it could no longer be taken lightly as before, because it could explode at any time. Mr. Medvedev used the phrase "systemic threat" for any attack on Crimea, and this is one of the reasons why Russia's military doctrine allows the activation of its nuclear weapons.
There will be a very fast and hard apocalypse if Ukrainian forces dare to attack Crimea. This is a completely legitimate response to an attack on Russian territory.
Deputy Chairman of the Russian Federation Council Konstatin Kosachev said on August 15 that Moscow will not allow anyone to destroy the Crimean Bridge. Commenting on Ukrainian politicians' warnings about attacking the important bridge, Kosachev told Russia-24: "We will definitely not allow the Crimean Bridge to be attacked under any circumstances. We have calculated certain risks during the construction process, including the threat of direct attacks on the bridge."
Any potential attack on the Crimean bridge would certainly involve foreign weapons supplied to Kiev, Mr. Kosachev noted, because “the weapons that the Ukrainian army possesses are technically incapable of reaching the strategic Russian bridge.
Western military experts say Ukraine does not have the weapons to launch an effective attack on this location. The bridge is far from Ukrainian territory, making the most likely attack option by air. However, the S-300 and S-400 air defense systems in Crimea could prevent Ukrainian aircraft from approaching the target for airstrikes.
"Headache" deducing President Putin's calculations
As the war in Ukraine has intensified, Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly resorted to nuclear rhetoric. In his first statement warning of a potential nuclear attack, President Putin stressed:
Anyone who tries to stand in our way, let alone create threats to the Russian country and people, must understand that Russia's response will be immediate, and will lead to consequences unprecedented in history.
Russian President Putin's latest tough statements are making international strategic analysts "confused", wondering about the possibility of Russia using nuclear weapons or not. So will Russian President Putin press the nuclear button? Kremlin observers are closely watching, trying to find out whether the Russian leader's nuclear threats are well-founded or just a "bluff". Currently, cautious analysts say that the possibility of President Putin using nuclear weapons still seems low. The US intelligence agency CIA said they have not seen any signs that Russia could use nuclear weapons, despite US President Joe Biden warning of the risk of "Doomsday" for the world, since the Cold War. Mr. Biden affirmed that President Putin "was not joking when he warned that he was ready to deploy nuclear weapons on the battlefield in Ukraine".
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US President Joe Biden warns of "Doomsday" regarding nuclear weapons. Photo: Reuters |
The White House has warned of “catastrophic consequences for Russia” if President Putin uses nuclear weapons. But whether this is in Putin’s hands or not is uncertain. Worried observers admit that they cannot be sure what President Putin has in mind. Even with Western intelligence agencies and sophisticated spy satellite systems, it is not yet possible to determine whether President Putin is just being a deterrent or really intends to break the nuclear taboo. Currently, Russia is the world’s largest nuclear power in terms of the number of nuclear warheads it possesses. Russia has 5,977 nuclear warheads, while the US has 5,428.
Observers still hope that the destructive power of nuclear weapons, of which the Hiroshima and Nagasaki disasters are a valuable lesson, will prevent Russia from calling the “nuclear genie” out of the “lamp”. However, Western policymakers and NATO always put the alliance on “red alert” to respond promptly to President Putin’s calculations.
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The devastated scene of Hiroshima and Nagasaki (Japan) after the US dropped nuclear bombs in 1945. Photo: Internet |
When faced with the possibility of Russia using nuclear weapons, the first question NATO needs to answer is whether such an action would ultimately mark a real red line for the West. In other words, would a Russian nuclear attack on Ukraine trigger a change in NATO tactics from merely supplying Kiev with weapons to direct military involvement? Observers say that Russia’s use of nuclear weapons could scare NATO into not crossing that line, and could seek to force Ukraine to make concessions to Russia. If Russia’s use of nuclear weapons does not provoke NATO to directly engage in combat, Russia could expand its nuclear arsenal to quickly defeat Ukraine.
If NATO decides to strike back on behalf of Ukraine, the question remains: will it use nuclear weapons, and if so, how? The most likely option is a tit-for-tat nuclear counterstrike, destroying Russian targets in proportion to those that Russia has targeted. This is the natural response. However, this scenario is less likely, as it leads to back-and-forth attacks, with neither side giving up. And in the end, both sides are severely damaged.
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| A Russian intercontinental ballistic missile on a vehicle parades through Red Square. Photo: AP |
Observers say that, for now, Russia’s long-range nuclear weapons that could be used in a direct conflict are combat-ready. But its stockpile of shorter-range warheads – the so-called tactical weapons that Russia might want to use in Ukraine – is not. “All those weapons are in storage,” said Pavel Podvig, a senior nuclear weapons researcher at the UN disarmament research agency in Geneva. “You have to take them out of the bunkers, load them onto trucks, and then combine them with missiles or other delivery systems.”
Russia has not declared its entire arsenal of tactical nuclear weapons, and their capabilities. President Putin could order the preparation of smaller numbers, ready to use at a moment’s notice. However, publicly removing nuclear weapons from storage is also a tactic that President Putin could use to put pressure on Ukraine, without resorting to a last-ditch effort.
