The risk of Ukraine becoming a quagmire for the West

The Dnieper River appears regularly in military scenarios that Russia can choose regardingUkraine. Here the time factor plays an important role and this factor depends on the level of preparation of the Russian army and the resistance of the Ukrainian army.

If the Russian army is to succeed, it must reach the Dnieper front within 3-7 days. Their campaign will fail if it takes longer than 7 days.

In the event that Russia expands its military intervention to the entire enemy territory, the Russian army will face two strategies: deal with each enemy city before reaching the final point or skip urban warfare and go straight to Ukraine's western border.

Western commentators have often predicted that the Russian army will attack while the ground is still frozen in January and February 2022, to avoid difficulties in using mechanized equipment when the ice melts after March. But if Russia wants to act immediately, January and February are too late because the thaw season is approaching.

The thaw season ends in May and June. Summers in Ukraine and Russia are not only dry but also have long periods of sunlight. During the Soviet Union's Great Patriotic War, the battles of Moscow and Stalingrad both began in the summer. The Germans were then defeated as the harsh winter set in.

Ukrainian army is unlikely to transform in a short time

The United States and the West can provide the Ukrainian army with anti-aircraft, anti-tank and anti-ship missiles, electronic warfare equipment, small arms, artillery, ammunition, vehicles, aircraft components, fuel and medicine, but Ukraine still needs time to upgrade its combat power.

The Ukrainian military, accustomed to Soviet-era equipment, will need time to adapt to the new equipment provided by the West. It is difficult to say whether the Ukrainian military will be able to do so in time.

The Ukrainian army could emulate the Afghan warriors of old and wage a guerrilla war against Russia and exhaust Russia. This idea sounds convincing but in reality it is difficult to implement. Because Ukraine and Russia are too close in culture and blood. There would also be no language barrier for the Russian army when they face the enemy's guerrilla battles.

During the War against Nazi Germany, the Ukrainian national armed forces were supported by Hitler's army but ultimately achieved nothing significant in fighting the Soviet Red Army.

Economic sanctions are unlikely to go far.

On the other hand, although the US and the West have a number of political and economic options, these options have proven ineffective. Even if the US and the West tighten economic sanctions, it is not enough to fundamentally shake Russia's decision-making process.

Second, the public opinion war that the West has launched is unlikely to hurt Russia. Some have suggested that NATO countries take in refugees from Ukraine and put moral pressure on Russia, but in reality, this move could help Russia reduce the burden of controlling Ukraine.

At the same time, Ukraine remains the main route for Russian gas to Europe. Any military conflict there could seriously affect Russian gas supplies to Europe. NATO countries face a dilemma here – they want to help Ukraine but at the same time need gas from Ukraine’s adversaries.

The US and the West could use diplomatic pressure to force Belarus to refuse to cooperate with Russia and to deny Russian troops access to their territory. This scenario would be possible if the West had never tried to create a color revolution in Belarus. The situation here is: The West uses its left hand to “beat” Belarus, then uses its right hand to pull Belarus to its side.

The West could also use international courtroom tactics to investigate Russia’s so-called “war crimes.” But the United States faces similar problems in Afghanistan.

Ukraine has become a difficult problem for both the US and the West. Even if Russia negotiates with the US, it will still make its own decisions. It is difficult for the US to force Russia at the negotiating table. The US cannot force Russia to promise not to attack Ukraine, but Russia cannot force the US to promise not to admit Ukraine into NATO. The stalemate in Ukraine will continue.

China Distracts America

Now the US is focusing its strategic attention on the Asia-Pacific. This is an opportunity for Russia to put pressure on Ukraine.

Despite the strong influence of the US, Russia can do whatever it wants in many parts of the world, such as openly developing military cooperation with the military government of Myanmar, which is isolated by the West. Russia has provided two Su-30SME heavy fighters to Myanmar.

There is also information that Russia may supply fighter jets and air defense missiles to North Korea and Iran.

On top of that, China is always a source of concern and distraction for the US. Therefore, even if the US wants to put pressure on Russia, it will be difficult for it to do much. And if the US is not proactive in the Ukraine issue, it may lose the trust of many of its allies.

During the naval rivalry between Britain and Germany in the early 20th century, Britain chose a strategy of avoiding deployments everywhere in order to ensure naval superiority in the North Sea. Ultimately, it was fortunate to win World War I, at the cost of accepting Japanese expansion in the Far East and American expansion in the two oceans.

Germany could also have gained an advantage if they had delayed the war and focused on economic development. World War II was a continuation of World War I. After World War II, Britain became a completely second-rate empire.

All countries, including the US, Russia, China, and the EU, are studying history. Ukraine alone can study the historical experience of neighboring Poland.