Comments, predictions Jannik Sinner vs Tommy Paul: Paul falls

With a US Open quarter-final berth on the line, Jannik Sinner will face Tommy Paul for the first time at a Grand Slam on Monday at Flushing Meadows.

The Italian No. 1 eliminated Christopher O'Connell in his previous match 6-1 6-4 6-2, while Paul came from behind to beat Gabriel Diallo 6-7 (7-5) 6-3 6-1 7-6 (7-3).

Jannik Sinner vs Tommy Paul's latest US Open journey

Jannik Sinner:

Round 1: vs. Mackenzie McDonald 2-6 6-2 6-1 6-2

Round 2: vs. Alex Michelsen 6-4 6-0 6-2

Round 3: vs. Christopher O'Connell 6-1 6-4 6-2

Tommy Paul:

Round 1: vs. Lorenzo Sonego 6-4 6-2 5-7 6-2

Round 2: vs. Max Purcell 7-5 6-0 1-0 (retired)

Round 3: vs. Gabriel Diallo 6-7 (7-5) 6-3 6-1 7-6 (7-3)

Latest head-to-head history Jannik Sinner vs Tommy Paul

Madrid Open (2022) - Round 1 - Sinner won 6-7 (4) 7-6 (4) 6-3

Viking International (2022) - Second Round - Paul wins 6-3 3-6 6-3

National Bank Open (2023) - Semi-finals - Sinner won 6-4 6-4

More than two years ago, when they first met, Sinner had a clear advantage in second serves, winning 66% while Paul only managed 44%.

Just over a month later, when they met again, Paul had a slight advantage in second serves, 59% to 53%, which was enough for him to win as both were level at 81% in first serves.

Sinner won 78% of his first serves at last year's National Bank Open, while Paul only managed 60%, helping the Italian win in straight sets.

Latest Jannik Sinner vs Tommy Paul match review

Losing the first set in his opening match at this tournament seemed to be the wake-up call Jannik Sinner needed to improve his form on hard courts.

The reigning Australian Open champion has not dropped a set since a shock 6-2 first-setter against Mackenzie McDonald, and he has advanced to the fourth round of the tournament for the fourth consecutive time.

On Saturday, his serving form was impressive, hitting 15 aces and winning 82% of his points from first serve.

Monday will be his sixth consecutive appearance in the fourth round of a Grand Slam, with Sinner having lost at this stage at the 2021 and 2023 US Opens to Alexander Zverev on both occasions.

This will also be his fifth singles match against an American at this tournament, with Sinner having won all five previous encounters.

Despite winning just 60% of his first-serve points on hard courts this year, the 23-year-old has made up for it by winning 92% of his service games on the surface.

Score prediction Jannik Sinner vs Tommy Paul

Paul may have the crowd behind him, which could be a big advantage, but Sinner's resilience and overall form have been impressive in the last two games, and we don't think he'll be in that form on Monday.

Our prediction: Sinner wins in four sets