New factors in Russia-West relations

(Baonghean) - On Wednesday, December 23, the Russian Federal Investigative Committee announced the arrest in absentia and international arrest of former tycoon Mikhail Khodorkovsky - 2 weeks after this figure made a statement calling for "a revolution against the current government".

Mikhail Khodorkovsky, 52, has been living in exile in London and Switzerland since his release in 2013. The once richest man in Russia was imprisoned for more than 10 years for masterminding the murder of the mayor of Nefteyugansk, Siberia, where the Yukos oil company was headquartered and which was also a major source of his income.

Mikhail Khodorkovsky in June 2015 in Washington (USA) Photo: AFP

The victim is said to have made decisions against the interests of Yukos before being murdered by two employees of the corporation under the direction of boss Mikhail Khodorkovsky.

On October 25, 2003, the former tycoon was arrested on two previous convictions for “tax evasion” and “large-scale theft by fraud.” At the time, there was an opinion that Khodorkovsky was the victim of a “political purge” orchestrated by the Kremlin. All his assets were taken over by a public company and the Kremlin eliminated a formidable political rival. Of course, that was just a hypothesis from the anti-Kremlin school.

Today, the Kremlin’s legal battle against Khodorkovsky is taking place in a somewhat different context. Khodorkovsky has sought exile in London—far from the reach of Moscow courts and Siberian prison camps—but has continued to provoke the Kremlin. The former tycoon has also been secretly pursuing international lawsuits against former Yukos executives.

Most recently, in July 2014, the International Court of Justice in The Hague, the world capital of justice, ruled that Russia had dissolved Yukos for political reasons and ordered Russia to pay a record fine of €37 billion. Although Russia has rejected the fine, collection proceedings are still underway in France, Belgium, Germany, the UK and the US.

But what is more remarkable is that Mikhail Khodorkovsky has spoken out in the political arena, breaking his promise to stop criticizing the Kremlin when he was released. A former “outcast” tycoon, Khodorkovsky founded the Open Russia movement to rally the opposition in Russia. He also helped publish an investigation into the links between the Russian mafia and figures close to Kremlin power.

Most recently, on December 9, he even delivered a speech strongly attacking the current Russian President Vladimir Putin during a press conference in London: “Russia has witnessed an illegal coup: illegal laws passed by an illegal Parliament, enforced by an illegal government and a non-independent judiciary. To return to a state of true rule of law, a revolution is needed.”

Russia quickly stepped up legal proceedings against Khodorkovsky and his supporters. On Tuesday, December 22, Russian Federal Police detained several members of the Open Russia movement in Moscow.

Perhaps this former tycoon would not have attracted so much attention from the Kremlin and the international community, if not for the current tense relationship between Russia and the West. Evidence is that the legal proceedings against Khodorkovsky were "relaxed" by Russia after his release in 2013 and were only "restarted" in recent days.

Certainly, Khodorkovsky himself is not the only reason - in fact, he has always pursued an anti-establishment stance against the current Russian government. So why has such a relatively obscure figure suddenly become the focus of the world political "stage"? Is it because such a factor in the current context has the potential to impact relations between Russia and the West, depending on the direction the two sides choose?

A revolution against the Kremlin - the idea may sound unrealistic for a Russia with high support for President Vladimir Putin, but who can say for sure that Russians - or at least a part of Russians - will not change if the domestic economic situation continues to deteriorate? The West has been putting pressure on Russia, and if the new solution they choose is to support an opposition element that already has a base and a force at home, it will not be a scenario that will please Kremlin officials.

Perhaps the Russian President is having a rough time in international politics, but is extremely "full" in domestic politics. That does not mean that the Kremlin owner underestimates the dangers originating from within the birch country and the tough move against Khodorkovsky is the most concrete evidence. A Khodorkovsky is not sure to create a "coup" in Russia, but clearly, new possibilities and ways for the West and Russia to confront each other are gradually opening up...

Thuc Anh