What does Kim Jong-un's unusual "olive branch" mean?

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. Photo: Reuters

After months of heightened tensions over Pyongyang's nuclear ambitions, the situation on the Korean peninsula has changed dramatically in recent days.

In his New Year's speech, leader Kim Jong-un said North Korea had completed the nuclear capability needed to defend itself against the threat of attack from the United States. Mr. Kim asserted that the nuclear button was on his desk.

However, the North Korean leader unexpectedly extended an “olive branch” of reconciliation to South Korea and proposed dialogue with the neighboring country. Mr. Kim Jong-un not only “sincerely” wished South Korea a successful Winter Olympics as host country, but also declared his willingness to send a North Korean delegation to participate in this world-class sporting event.

“Since we are fellow countrymen of the same blood as the South Korean people, it is only natural that we share their joy over this auspicious event and help them,” Kim Jong-un said.

Since Kim Jong-un's speech, a series of events have emerged that have shown signs of improvement in the situation on the Korean Peninsula. Pyongyang and Seoul have begun to reopen the hotline in the inter-Korean demilitarized zone (DMZ) after more than two years of "freezing", and then agreed to hold high-level talks at the truce village of Panmunjom on January 9. In addition, the US also agreed to a proposal made by South Korea to stop joint military exercises. These exercises have been a move that has made North Korea "hot under the collar" for many years.

This is a 180-degree change for North Korea - a country that has ignored all previous offers of negotiations from South Korean President Moon Jae-in, even threatening to engulf the capital Seoul in a "sea of ​​fire". Many analysts believe that Mr. Kim Jong-un is trying to divide his allies in the context that the US currently has about 28,500 troops stationed in South Korea and is ready to deal with North Korea at any time.

Unusual "olive branch"

South Korean officers on the hotline to communicate with North Korea. Photo: Reuters

“It is clear that Kim Jong-un’s New Year’s speech is aimed at driving a wedge between the US and South Korea. It is important for South Korea not to fall into North Korea’s game,” said Park Won-gon, a political science professor at Handong University.

Anyone who thinks Kim Jong-un's statements are a positive move to ease the current situation has "had too much champagne over the New Year holidays," according to US National Security Adviser HR McMaster.

Meanwhile, analyst Ankit Panda said that Kim Jong-un’s speech showed goodwill and an unusual “de-escalation” from North Korea, which would certainly come with certain conditions. If the talks between South Korea and North Korea actually take place in the next few days, Pyongyang could see this as an opportunity to make demands regarding the two annual joint military exercises between the US and South Korea, called “Key Resolve” and “Foal Eagle.”

Analyst Panda said that the inter-Korean “olive branch” was the most important content in Kim Jong-un’s speech, but it also contained North Korea’s long-standing goal in the Northeast Asia region, which is to crack the US-South Korea relationship before completely destroying this alliance.

Only time will tell whether Kim Jong-un succeeds in this “move,” Panda said. But U.S. policymakers should be careful to ensure that North Korea’s attempt at distraction does not throw the decades-old U.S.-South Korea alliance into disarray.

The US and South Korea have agreed to suspend joint military exercises following Kim Jong-un's speech. Photo: AFP

Some other analysts believe that North Korea is really feeling pressure from both the US administration's tough stance as well as sanctions from Washington and the international community.

“Kim Jong-un is clearly concerned that the risk of the US using military force is increasing. He is forced to find a way out in relations with South Korea,” said Professor Koh Yu-hwan at Dongguk University.

The proposals made by leader Kim Jong-un and the PyeongChang Winter Olympics in South Korea are a real opportunity for North Korea, according to Kim Dong-yub, an expert at the Institute of Far Eastern Studies at Kyungnam University in Seoul.

“By taking advantage of the PyeongChang Olympics, North Korea wants to find more breathing space amid pressure and harsh sanctions,” said expert Kim.

It is unclear whether the truce between North and South Korea will last beyond the Olympics, especially if the US and South Korea continue to conduct military exercises in the future.

“Symbolic moves like sending athletes to the Olympics or holding talks in Panmunjom are of little value. But if they can help delay testing or serve as a stepping stone to broader talks, they are still vital,” said Adam Mount, a senior fellow at the Federation of American Scientists.