What does Kim Jong-un's unusual "olive branch" contain?
Experts say North Korean leader Kim Jong-un may be testing the relationship between the two allies, the US and South Korea, by offering an olive branch of reconciliation to his neighbor.
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. Photo: Reuters
After months of heightened tensions over Pyongyang's nuclear ambitions, the situation on the Korean peninsula has changed dramatically in recent days.
In his New Year's speech, leader Kim Jong-un said North Korea had completed the nuclear capability needed to defend itself against the threat of attack by the United States. Mr. Kim asserted that the nuclear button was on his desk.
However, the North Korean leader unexpectedly extended an olive branch of reconciliation to South Korea and proposed dialogue with the neighboring country. Mr. Kim Jong-un not only “sincerely” wished South Korea a successful Winter Olympics as host country, but also declared his willingness to send a North Korean delegation to participate in this world-class sporting event.
“Since we are fellow countrymen of the same blood as the South Korean people, it is only natural that we share their joy over this auspicious event and help them,” Kim Jong-un said.
Since Kim Jong-un's speech, a series of events have emerged that have shown signs of improvement in the situation on the Korean Peninsula. Pyongyang and Seoul have begun to reopen the hotline in the inter-Korean demilitarized zone (DMZ) after more than two years of "freezing", then continued to agree to hold high-level talks at the truce village of Panmunjom on January 9. In addition, the US also agreed to the proposal made by South Korea, which is to stop joint military exercises. These exercises have been a move that has made North Korea "hot-faced" for many years.
This is a 180-degree change for North Korea - a country that has ignored all previous offers of negotiations from South Korean President Moon Jae-in, even threatening to engulf the capital Seoul in a "sea of fire". Many analysts believe that Mr. Kim Jong-un is trying to divide his allies in the context that the US currently has about 28,500 troops stationed in South Korea and is ready to deal with North Korea at any time.
Unusual "olive branch"
South Korean officers on duty at the hotline to communicate with North Korea. Photo: Reuters
“It is clear that Kim Jong-un’s New Year’s speech is aimed at driving a wedge between the US and South Korea. It is important for South Korea not to fall into North Korea’s game,” said Park Won-gon, a political science professor at Handong University.
Anyone who thinks that Kim Jong-un's statements are a positive move to ease the current situation has "had too much champagne over the New Year holidays," according to US National Security Adviser HR McMaster.
Meanwhile, analyst Ankit Panda said that Kim Jong-un's speech showed goodwill and an unusual "de-escalation" from North Korea, and this will certainly come with certain conditions. If the talks between South Korea and North Korea do take place in the next few days, Pyongyang may see this as an opportunity to make demands regarding the two annual joint military exercises between the US and South Korea, called "Key Resolve" and "Foal Eagle".
Analyst Panda said that the inter-Korean “olive branch” was the most important content in Kim Jong-un’s speech, but also contained North Korea’s long-standing goal in the Northeast Asia region, which is to crack the US-South Korea relationship before completely destroying this alliance.
Only time will tell whether Kim Jong-un succeeds in this move, but US policymakers should be careful to ensure that North Korea’s attempt to distract them does not throw the decades-old US-South Korea alliance into disarray, according to Panda.
The US and South Korea have agreed to suspend joint military exercises following Kim Jong-un's speech. Photo: AFP
Some other analysts believe that North Korea is really feeling pressure from both the US administration's tough stance as well as sanctions from Washington and the international community.
“Kim Jong-un is clearly concerned that the risk of the US using military force is increasing. He is forced to find a way out in relations with South Korea,” said Professor Koh Yu-hwan at Dongguk University.
The proposals made by leader Kim Jong-un and the PyeongChang Winter Olympics in South Korea are a real opportunity for North Korea, according to Kim Dong-yub, an expert at the Institute of Far Eastern Studies at Kyungnam University in Seoul.
“By taking advantage of the PyeongChang Olympics, North Korea wants to find more breathing space amid pressure and harsh sanctions,” said expert Kim.
It is unclear whether the truce between North and South Korea will last beyond the Olympics, especially if the US and South Korea continue to conduct military exercises in the future.
“Symbolic moves like sending athletes to the Olympics or holding talks in Panmunjom are of little value. But if they can contribute to a moratorium on testing or serve as a stepping stone to broader talks, they are still vital,” said Adam Mount, an expert at the Federation of American Scientists.
