Post-Aleppo questions

(Baonghean) - The fate of the “Stalingrad of Syria” seems to have been sealed. The Syrian army has now stopped military operations to allow opposition fighters to leave the city before everything falls under the control of President Bashar al-Assad. But a victory in Aleppo has not resolved the uncertainties on the Middle East battlefield.

The 5 Year Battle

A victory in eastern Aleppo is very close. The Syrian government army can finally enter and take over the city that has been almost completely destroyed after years of “red fire”. The fact that Syria’s largest city is no longer under the control of the opposition is a predictable scenario. It is only a matter of time because the factors that dominate the Syrian government army are tilted in the favor of the Syrian government army.

After five years of struggling with costly and deadly civil wars with rebel groups and the self-proclaimed Islamic State (IS) terrorist group, President Bashar al-Assad has the determination and patience to break any resistance, especially in Syria's largest city, Aleppo, which is strategically located and the opposition's most impregnable stronghold.

Throughout this struggle, President Assad has increasingly received Russian support, which has changed the realities on the battlefield. Russian airstrikes have been a decisive blow in cutting off the opposition’s supply lines. Syrian rebel groups have now been severely cut off from regional funding and are suffering a serious qualitative decline, in part due to Russia’s military intervention.

Syrian civilians evacuate from opposition-held areas in Aleppo. Photo: The New Yorker

Previously, rebel groups had consolidated in East Aleppo and absorbed fighters from other areas into their ranks. This was the most important and most powerful resource of the armed opposition in East Aleppo. This relatively powerful force included Ahrar al-Sham, Fateh al-Sham (formerly al-Nusra Front), Jaysh al-Mujahideen and brigades affiliated with the Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebel group. Therefore, the collapse of the opposition in East Aleppo eliminated the biggest military threat to the regime of President Bashar al-Assad.

Gunfire has not stopped

It would be naive to assume that the five-year war in Syria will soon end with a turning point in Aleppo. The reality is that the victory has cost the Assad regime too much. His army’s reliance on Russian air strikes to liberate eastern Aleppo has proved a “threshold” that is difficult to overcome.

In addition, President Assad has had to rely on a large number of Shiite paramilitary units from Lebanon, Iran, Iraq and Afghanistan. Having secured Aleppo, President Assad now has to accept that too much of the country is fragmented, under the control of many different forces. Radical Islamist rebel groups, formed from former Al-Qaeda affiliates such as Fatah al-Sham, still hold Idlib province in the northwest. IS still holds Raqqa and much of Deir ez-Zor.

The Kurdish military forces also have their own territory, controlling most of the border with Türkiye and the towns of Qamishli and Hasakah. The suburbs of the capital Damascus are now like a chessboard with the intertwining of government forces and opposition forces. The next step is to mobilize forces to continue the victory or consolidate the positions already taken, which must also be carefully considered.

A soldier loyal to President al-Assad on the eastern Aleppo front, which is now almost under the control of the Damascus government. Photo: Middle East Eyes

External factors influencing the conflict are also shifting. Most notably, if President-elect Donald Trump follows through on his campaign promises, the United States will pay less attention to the moderate rebels than it did under Obama.

The US military will have no other mission than to destroy IS. As for the rebels, their future will largely depend on the attitude of regional states, Sunni backers like Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Türkiye, as well as the wealthy Gulf states that have funded militant Islamist groups.

The complex scenario unfolded even before Aleppo fell to the Assad regime. IS took advantage of the Syrian army’s concentration in Aleppo to capture the town of Palmyra over the weekend. This event also reiterated the harsh reality that the Syrian war is still raging in the northeast, near the Iraqi border.

Strategic competition in the Middle East

The conflict is not just happening on the Syrian border, but it is only manifested here in weapons, guns and casualties. Many regional powers are directly involved in the developments in Syria in one way or another. That is because they are facing each other politically, they are fighting for factions.

The balance of power in the Middle East is a tug-of-war between two regional rivals: Saudi Arabia and Iran, but with a host of other countries involved. Unfortunately, it has exploded in Syria, where geostrategic interests lie. Riyadh supports Sunni rebels, while Tehran supports the government in Damascus led by the Alawites, a minority group affiliated with Shiite Islam. They are at odds not just over their doctrines, but over their territorial ambitions and broader interests in the Middle East. It is therefore difficult for either side to give up its ambitions, even if they are weakened.

Phan Tung