Consequences if international pressure increases on Saudi Arabia
(Baonghean.vn)- With Saudi Arabia denying its role in the sudden disappearance of journalist Jamal Khashoggi and pledging to resist any international sanctions, the risk of the crisis escalating and affecting the global economy is growing.
At this point, the suspicions alone have put Saudi Arabia’s carefully crafted plans to reform its economy and burnish its image abroad in jeopardy. Not only that, but the image of “reformist” that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) has so carefully cultivated is also in jeopardy.
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| US President Donald Trump and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Photo: Getty |
"Right now, this is eroding all the goodwill and trust that MBS has built," said national security expert Jonathan Schanzer, vice president of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD).
However, the expert called for caution due to the lack of concrete evidence against Saudi Arabia and expressed doubts about intelligence from Türkiye implicating Riyadh.
Besides, according to analysts, trying to isolate this Arab Kingdom internationally will not be easy and could lead to consequences for everyone.
In theory, the escalation could push oil prices higher, upend the Middle East peace process and undermine international efforts to contain Iran, as the US administration pushes to cut Iran off from the oil market and rely on oil producer Saudi Arabia.
Mr. Schanzer said that realpolitik would likely prevent the West, especially the United States, from acting too aggressively against Saudi Arabia or pushing Riyadh into the arms of actors opposed to American interests, such as Russia.
"Both the US and Saudi Arabia need each other very much. You can see the interdependence and this is not easily brushed aside," so it will be difficult to isolate Riyadh, the expert emphasized.
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| Human rights activists and friends of journalist Khashoggi protest outside the Saudi Arabian consulate in Istanbul. Photo: AP |
Meanwhile, expert John Kilduff of Again Capital commented: "I think the crisis could escalate very quickly and oil is the obvious weapon for Saudi Arabia to use if there is any retaliation against Riyadh. If Saudi Arabia is punished economically, it will ensure that all other factors will be hurt."
Although oil prices have not been affected by the crisis, Saudi Arabia's stock market fell sharply on October 14. Mr. Kilduff warned that the world could see "an unprecedented period of instability in Saudi Arabia."
“While we have seen a very negative reaction from the Saudi stock market, a risk premium to oil prices does not appear warranted at this point,” said Matt Smith, director of product research at ClipperDate.
Meanwhile, expert Schanzer warned that if there is no response, "a dangerous precedent could emerge", because the disappearance of journalist Kashoggi could lead other countries to take similar actions against dissidents./.
