In an effort to find weak points in the Russian defense line, the Ukrainian army suffered many losses.

Efforts to stretch Russian forces

Instead of concentrating large forces in one direction, the Ukrainian army seems to be trying to pull Russian units in many directions and trying to find weaknesses in the Russian formation to exploit.

Ukrainian artillery fires towards Russian positions near Bakhmut. Photo: Getty.

The Ukrainian side (the attacking side) had the advantage of being able to choose the area of ​​attack, while the Russian side had to defend along a front line of nearly 1,000km, including units that had suffered certain wear and tear during the defense process.

On June 15, Mykhailo Podolyak, an advisor to the Office of the President of Ukraine, said that the first goal is to eliminate as many Russian conscript units from combat and "create psychological pressure on the Russian army".

Matthew Schmidt, a professor of national security at the University of New Haven (USA), said: "Only a quarter of the total Ukrainian force has participated in the counter-offensive campaign. The Russians are wondering where the remaining force will be used?"

Ukraine's asymmetrical strategy

Ukrainian units taking part in the counter-offensive had to adapt to the reality of Russian superiority in firepower and the advantage of strong fortifications. They often had to split into smaller groups to avoid being spotted and fired upon by the enemy.

Mick Ryan, who writes the Futura Doctrina blog and closely follows the Ukraine conflict, offered this advice to Ukraine: "If they limit the availability of fuel and ammunition to Russian combat forces, Ukraine will limit Russia's ability to respond to its tactical and operational activities, and control the mobility of Russian reserve forces."

Russia's strategy is still powerful

The challenge facing Ukrainian forces remains formidable: they must attack well-prepared fortified structures head-on, while lacking air superiority. Ukraine no longer has the opportunity to strike with a lightning strike like it did in Kharkov in the fall of 2022.

So far, Russia’s approach to defending southern Ukraine has been relatively effective. Ukrainian mine-clearing vehicles and other armored vehicles have been targeted by Russian artillery and aircraft as Ukraine has attempted to break through.

The Washington-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assessed: "When the first layer of the Russian formation repels or slows down the Ukrainian advance, the second layer of the Russian army will counterattack any Ukrainian breakthrough."

A Ukrainian officer admitted the difficult problem: "On the one hand, we have to worry about clearing mines; on the other hand, we have to worry about defending against enemy artillery and aircraft, which are guided by real-time targets by reconnaissance UAVs."

Professor Matthew Schmidt said that in the coming weeks, the Russian air force will likely play an even larger role in Russia's defense operations.

To achieve such success, the Russian army also had to draw many painful lessons in nearly 18 months of conflict with Ukraine. Russian military bloggers have praised the Russian army's electronic warfare capabilities in recent times, which have significantly improved and neutralized the enemy's ability to communicate and locate targets because precision-guided munitions require GPS coordinates.

Russia is trying to inflict as many casualties and damage to military vehicles as possible on the Ukrainian side in the area of ​​operations in front of the main defense line, causing the Ukrainian forces to be heavily depleted before they reach the main defense line. In other words, the area in front of the main defense line is the shooting zone.

Rob Lee, a research fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, said: Russia's strategy is to "cause heavy damage to Ukrainian units while withdrawing quickly to avoid losses for themselves."

Is Ukraine's Southward Expansion Goal Far Away?

The Pentagon predicts that Ukraine's counter-offensive will be prolonged and "very fierce".

General Mark Milley, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, said it was "very early" to estimate how long Ukraine's counteroffensive would last, given that Russia has several hundred thousand troops entrenched along the front line.

Even after capturing some territory, Ukrainian troops still had to clear mines while facing long-range Russian shelling.

If Russia's defensive strategy remains effective, Ukraine could lose many newly trained soldiers (tens of thousands killed), many tanks and infantry fighting vehicles trying to break through Russia's main defense line.

At that time, even if they could penetrate the defense line, the Ukrainian forces would be greatly weakened and would find it difficult to continue attacking to the South and achieve the goal of cutting off the land bridge connecting mainland Russia with the Crimean peninsula./.