Is Trump powerless against North Korea?

President Donald Trump declared in January that North Korea "would not test" an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of reaching the United States.

At the time, there were two things he didn't fully assess: how close Pyongyang had come to achieving that goal, and how limited the options were for thwarting that ambition.

Photo: Daily Express

On July 4th, North Korea announced the successful test launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile. The United States confirmed this, demonstrating that the Kim Jong Un regime has taken another step forward in its weapons development program.

Experts believe Pyongyang has crossed the line with a missile capable of potentially striking as far as Alaska.

The Kim Jong Un regime's repeated missile tests suggest that the goal of developing a nuclear-capable weapon capable of reaching the United States is not far-fetched. However, for President Trump and the U.S. national security team, the July 4th technical milestone foreshadows a future strategic dilemma.

If North Korea reaches the capability to strike the United States, then, as former Secretary of Defense William J. Perry recently noted, all calculations will change. The concern will no longer be about North Korea launching a preemptive strike on the West Bank, but rather what level of "lethal" destruction it would entail.

And if Kim Jong-un has the potential to retaliate, this prospect will shape every decision made by President Trump and future generations of American leaders in protecting Washington's allies in the region.

North Korea's medium-range missiles have long been capable of reaching South Korea and Japan. U.S. intelligence officials believe they also have the potential to carry nuclear warheads. And the latest test demonstrates that the U.S. is at risk of being within their sights.

On July 4, U.S. Secretary of State Rex W. Tillerson called for "global action" and urged the UN Security Council to "take stronger measures" against Pyongyang. He stated that the U.S. would review countries that provide economic or military support to North Korea.

According to the NY Times, President Trump still has time to act. While what North Korea achieved on July 4th, as Americans celebrated Independence Day, was indeed a breakthrough, it did not fully demonstrate the extent of its nuclear capabilities.

Perhaps that's why President Trump hasn't yet drawn a "red line" to stop Pyongyang. He hasn't even reiterated the policy President George W. Bush set out in October 2006 after North Korea's first nuclear test: holding North Korea fully responsible if it shares nuclear technology with any country or organization.

So what options does the US President currently have at his disposal?

The traditional containment policy has been to limit the enemy's ability to expand its influence, as the US did with the Soviet Union. But this approach doesn't solve the problem; it's simply a matter of "living with the problem."

Trump may intensify sanctions, increase the US Navy presence off the Korean Peninsula, and accelerate the cyber program to neutralize Pyongyang's missile launches.

But if the combination of threats and technology had been successful, North Korea would not have been able to carry out the July 4 test, knowing full well that it would lead to stricter sanctions, greater military pressure, and more intense covert operations.

To date, President Trump's ambition to persuade China to restrain North Korea has turned into disappointment. Recently, he even told President Xi Jinping that the U.S. would handle the problem itself.

According to the NY Times, the White House could also pursue another measure: a preemptive military strike if the US detects that North Korea is about to launch a ballistic missile – possibly one with the potential to reach the West Coast.

However, analysts argue that this is not a good idea. The reason is simple: after 11 years of development, North Korea has manufactured a large number of missiles of various types to gain an advantage. Recently, the country has test-fired a new generation of solid-fuel missiles that are easy to conceal in caves and can quickly reach their target.

North Korea also has another weapon: artillery deployed along the Demilitarized Zone border, ready to bombard Seoul, a city of about 10 million people and one of Asia's busiest economic centers.

Clearly, there's a major risk that North Korea is certain the U.S. president can't afford to take. In May, the U.S. Secretary of Defense admitted on CBS's "Face the Nation" that "a conflict in North Korea could be the worst kind of war a man ever fights."

Another option that South Korea's new president, Moon Jae-in, mentioned in Washington last weekend is negotiation. This would begin with freezing North Korea's nuclear and missile tests in exchange for the U.S. agreeing to limit or halt joint military exercises with South Korea.

The Chinese president has long advocated this approach, and notably on July 4th, he received the support of Russian President Vladimir Putin following their meeting in Moscow.

However, negotiations also carry risks. They could help North Korea and China achieve their goal of restricting the freedom of action of the U.S. military in the Pacific, and over time could erode the military deterrence capabilities of the U.S.-South Korea alliance.

But so far, leader Kim Jong Un has shown no interest in abandoning nuclear power. This is because Pyongyang believes that its nuclear weapons program is key to preventing the US from harming North Korea.

According to Vietnamnet.vn