Is Trump 'helpless' with North Korea?

President Donald Trump said in January that "there will be no way" that North Korea would test an intercontinental ballistic missile that could reach the United States.

There were two things he failed to appreciate at the time: how close Pyongyang had come to achieving that goal, and how limited its options were to thwart it.

Photo: Daily Express

On July 4, North Korea announced that it had successfully tested an intercontinental ballistic missile. The United States confirmed this, proving that the Kim Jong Un administration has taken another step forward in its weapons development program.

Experts say Pyongyang has crossed the threshold with a missile that could potentially strike as far away as Alaska.

The Kim Jong Un regime’s repeated missile tests suggest that its goal of building a nuclear-tipped weapon that can reach the United States is not far-fetched. But for President Trump and his national security team, the July 4 technical milestone portends a strategic dilemma for the future.

If North Korea were to develop the ability to strike the United States, as former Defense Secretary William J. Perry recently noted, the calculus would change. The concern would no longer be whether North Korea would launch a preemptive strike on the West Coast, but rather how “lethal” it would be.

And if Mr. Kim has the potential to retaliate, this prospect will shape every decision by President Trump and generations of American leaders in defending Washington's allies in the region.

North Korea’s intermediate-range missiles have long been capable of reaching South Korea and Japan. US intelligence officials believe they are also capable of carrying nuclear warheads. And the latest test shows that the US is at risk of being targeted.

On July 4, US Secretary of State Rex W. Tillerson called for "global action" and urged the United Nations Security Council to "take stronger measures" against Pyongyang. He announced that the US would review countries that provide economic or military support to North Korea.

According to the NY Times, President Trump still has time to act. Because what North Korea achieved on July 4 when Americans celebrated Independence Day was a breakthrough but did not demonstrate the nuclear stature of this country.

Perhaps that is why President Trump has yet to draw a “red line” to stop Pyongyang. He has not even mentioned the policy that President George W. Bush proposed in October 2006 after North Korea’s first nuclear test: Hold North Korea fully responsible if it shares nuclear technology with any country or organization.

So what options does the US President have now?

The containment policy has always been: Limit the enemy's ability to expand its influence, as the US did with the Soviet Union. But this approach does not solve the problem, it is simply "living with the flood".

Mr. Trump is likely to increase sanctions, increase the US Navy’s presence off the Korean Peninsula, and accelerate a cyber program to neutralize Pyongyang’s missile launches.

But if the combination of threats and technology had succeeded, North Korea would not have carried out the July 4 test, knowing full well it would have led to tighter sanctions, greater military pressure and more covert action.

President Trump’s ambition to persuade China to rein in North Korea has so far turned into frustration. He recently told President Xi Jinping that the US would handle the problem itself.

According to the NY Times, the White House boss could also pursue another measure: a preemptive military strike if the US discovers that North Korea is about to launch a ballistic missile – possibly one with the potential range to reach the West Coast.

However, analysts say this is not a good idea. The reason is simple: after 11 years of development, North Korea has built many missiles of many types to gain an advantage. Recently, the country has tested a new generation of solid-fuel missiles that can be easily hidden in caves and quickly put into attack position.

North Korea has another weapon: artillery deployed along the Demilitarized Zone border, ready to bombard the capital Seoul, a city of about 10 million people and one of Asia's busiest economic centers.

Clearly, there is a huge risk that North Korea is certain the US President cannot afford to take. In May, the US Secretary of Defense admitted on CBS's "Face the Nation" that "a conflict in Korea could be the worst kind of war in human history."

Another option, which new South Korean President Moon Jae-in mentioned in Washington last weekend: Negotiations. That would start with a freeze on North Korea’s nuclear and missile tests in exchange for the United States agreeing to limit or stop military exercises with South Korea.

The Chinese president has long urged this approach, and on July 4 he received support from Russian President Vladimir Putin after a meeting in Moscow.

But negotiations also carry risks. They help North Korea and China achieve their goal of limiting the US military’s freedom of action in the Pacific, and over time will erode the US-ROK alliance’s military deterrent.

But so far, leader Kim Jong Un has shown no interest in giving up his nuclear weapons. Pyongyang believes its nuclear weapons program is the key to keeping the United States from harming North Korea.

According to Vietnamnet.vn