Breaking the ice in Australia-China relations: Not simple!

Breaking the ice between Australia and China is not easy. Illustrative photo

Strategic conflict

The relationship between Australia and China is considered to be at its lowest point in many years, as Canberra struggles to cope with Beijing's increasingly powerful policies to increase its influence in all aspects of the Indo-Pacific region.

Australian Trade Minister Simon Birmingham (right) and his trip to improve relations with China, following the policy of Prime Minister Scott Morrison (left). Photo: Sydney Morning Herald

The tense verbal battles between the two sides have been constantly appearing since the end of last year on a series of issues and really exploded when Senator Concetta Fierravanti-Wells wrote an article in the press heavily criticizing China for trying to attract poor island nations that are neighbors of Australia with preferential loans to increase its influence. Ms. Fierravanti-Wells even called this a “debt trap” tactic of Beijing, because poor countries will have difficulty paying back.

Not one to be overlooked, China has completely dismissed the article and heavily criticized the author, Senator Fierravanti-Wells. Beijing has loudly asserted that China wants to help Pacific nations “without any political motives,” and that any attempt to obstruct these goals will fail.

Not only are there a series of bilateral conflicts, as a close ally of the US, of course, Australia also sides with the US on many issues to counter China.

Balanced Choice

Despite the strategic tensions and conflicts, both the old and new Australian governments know that a quarter of the country’s trade turnover is with its Chinese partners. Meanwhile, in reality, Australia itself, although unwillingly, is caught in the middle of the geostrategic struggle between the two giants, the US and China. Both are trying to take each other’s place to become the leading country in the Indo-Pacific region. And Australia itself also has its own geopolitical ambitions.

Therefore, behind the surface war of words, Australia still tries to maintain a balanced strategy to avoid affecting economic interests as well as national security...

A larger US military presence in Australia pushes back against China's threat but also makes it difficult for Canberra to balance its three-way relationship with the US and China. Photo: Reuters

As for Australia’s new Prime Minister, when he was Treasurer, Mr. Scott Morrison had some policies and views against Chinese businesses and individuals. But overall, Mr. Morrison still called for close economic cooperation with China, because the two sides have a lot of potential. When he was elected Prime Minister, the Chinese Foreign Ministry did not forget to congratulate Mr. Morrison and affirmed that the country’s policy in its relationship with Australia has always been “consistent and clear”.

In response to China’s goodwill, in recent statements on relations between China and its ally the United States, Australian Prime Minister Morrison has shown a balanced stance between the two sides and has not sided with Washington. Looking back at early October, Prime Minister Scott Morrison affirmed that Australia would remain calm amid rising tensions between the United States and China in the East Sea.

Prime Minister Morrison also affirmed that “Australia’s job is to work with all parties to reduce uncertainty and that is what Australia is doing.” And that, “Australia has close relationships with both the US and China, so he is committed to working hard to bring about the most beneficial strategic outcome for the country. And this visit to China by Australian Trade Minister Simon Birmingham is also part of the roadmap to implement the strategy to improve relations with Beijing.

Such a balanced calculation is true, but clearly, realizing this is not simple and sometimes beyond Australia's control. According to observers, the US-China trade war is constantly escalating, causing negative effects on the global economy, including Australia. Meanwhile, the US itself under President Donald Trump is clearly not "satisfied" with a "two-faced" ally with a neutral stance like Australia.

Much will depend on Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s diplomatic balancing act, but that effort is likely to be distracted by the fact that Morrison himself is preparing for a very difficult general election in Australia next year.