The West Tightens Sanctions: Russia's Perspective on the New Stage of Confrontation

The European Union (EU) and the United States have once again announced new sanctions against Russia almost simultaneously. Brussels has finally approved the long-discussed 19th package of sanctions, despite initial objections from Slovakia and Hungary. In Washington, the Trump administration has also introduced its first major sanctions since returning to the White House.

However, according to Ivan Timofeev, program director of the Valdai Club, these measures are unlikely to deal a serious blow to the Russian economy, which had anticipated these moves.

The sanctions package is "symbolic" in nature.

As usual, the EU has expanded its list of sanctioned individuals and companies. In his analysis published by RT, author Ivan Timofeev argues that the inclusion of industrial enterprises on the list has become “routine” and their impact is increasingly symbolic.

More notable are secondary sanctions targeting Chinese companies involved in buying and processing Russian oil. Brussels hopes to prevent Chinese companies from handling Russian goods. However, the effectiveness of this move is questionable. Importing Russian oil is profitable for China, and any outside interference is likely to cause irritation and retaliation from Beijing.

The EU has also expanded restrictions on Russian banks. But since the sector is already under heavy US sanctions, additional European measures will not change much, Timofeev said. The list of sanctioned oil tankers has also been expanded, but this too is “more symbolic than consequential” as Russia’s “dark fleet” continues to operate effectively, avoiding Western scrutiny.

Another familiar move is the EU targeting third-country financial institutions that maintain relations with Russia, particularly those that use Russian equivalent payment systems (such as SPFS, Mir and FPS).

Other measures appear to be more symbolic than strategic. Brussels has banned services for Russia’s tourism industry and introduced new restrictions on the travel of Russian diplomats – moves reminiscent of “old Cold War scenarios”. A ban on imports of Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) sounds significant, but it simply “formalizes a process that was already underway” as European buyers quietly cut back on purchases last month.

The "hawk" voice returns?

Across the Atlantic, Washington’s new sanctions appear more focused, but not necessarily more effective. The Trump administration has imposed crippling sanctions on two major Russian energy companies. Given that the energy sector is already constrained by sweeping export controls, this “changes little in substance,” RT wrote. But the decision is politically symbolic. It is Washington’s first major punitive move since Trump returned to the White House, a sign that America’s domestic hawks are regaining influence.

The reimposition of sanctions is a negative indicator, says Ivan Timofeev, a sign that the prospects for resolving the Ukraine crisis are fading. Officially, Washington claims these steps are designed to “encourage a ceasefire.” But in reality, they reflect a deepening stalemate. The author emphasizes Moscow’s position: Russia has made it clear that a mere ceasefire will not solve anything; it will merely “freeze” the conflict without addressing its root causes. Any lasting solution must be comprehensive and reflect Moscow’s long-stated security requirements.

Instead, the new sanctions signal a new phase in the conflict, one of increased pressure and prolonged confrontation, with both sides now maneuvering to gain the upper hand ahead of future negotiations that may take place sooner rather than later.

The hawks in the Western camp seem to have succeeded in steering US policy back toward escalation, Russian experts say. But the result may not be a strategic gain for the West – it will only cause more damage to Ukraine, which continues to pay the price for the ambitions of others.