Russia-NATO relations 'downhill' after NATO Summit

(Baonghean.vn) - The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Summit just ended on July 9 in Warsaw, Poland. Although many issues were discussed, from the level of contributions of members, fighting the self-proclaimed Islamic State (IS), to the impact of Brexit..., the content that attracted the most attention was a series of decisions to strengthen defense, containment and deterrence capabilities on the eastern flank of the bloc. Although NATO did not admit it, everyone realized that these moves were aimed at dealing with Russia, negatively affecting the already not-so-good relationship between Russia and this military bloc.

NATO "both punches and rubs"

This summit in Warsaw, Poland is considered the most important NATO conference since the Cold War because of the decisions to fundamentally change the bloc's security policy.

Accordingly, NATO will apply an expansion policy to adapt to what the bloc calls "security threats and challenges from many sides" through the largest military buildup in Eastern Europe.

NATO passed many important decisions at the Summit in Warsaw, Poland Photo: Reuters

After this conference, NATO will officially deploy four multinational battalions in Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia with each unit consisting of 800-1,200 soldiers.

According to NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, this presence will be maintained as long as necessary and is not limited in time. Along with the deployment of troops to the eastern flank bordering Russia, the NATO Summit also officially announced the deployment of the missile defense system in Europe and the deployment of a joint Bulgarian and Romanian brigade in Romania to strengthen forces in the Black Sea region.

NATO’s rapid reaction force is now three times larger, with a spearhead brigade at its heart and capable of mobilizing within days. Perhaps NATO was too “aware” of its failure to respond appropriately to the Russia-Georgia conflict in 2008 and more recently the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2014, which led to the annexation of Crimea into Russian territory. Therefore, the decisions at this summit have shown a change in NATO’s policy in relations with Russia, from “trying not to provoke” to “restraint and deterrence”.

Russian nuclear submarines at a base in the Murmansk region. Photo: Getty

Analysts say NATO's strong moves have both military and political significance, demonstrating the bloc's unity, solidarity and readiness to protect member countries, especially those on the front lines, directly facing "threats".

And one of the biggest “threats” in NATO’s eyes is certainly Russia – although NATO has always denied it. It is no coincidence that NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg promised to “explain” to Russia about the bloc’s actions at the NATO-Russia Council meeting on July 13.

Meanwhile, a series of leaders of NATO member countries such as France, Germany, and Luxembourg also spoke out to affirm that NATO does not threaten any country, and NATO continues to want to have good relations with Russia.

"Russian Bear" is not easy to "seduce"

Despite NATO’s attempts to reassure, Russia has maintained a firm stance, calling NATO’s moves to add new members and increase its activities in the Eastern region “provocative.” Anticipating NATO’s moves at this summit, Russia has clearly stated that it will “respond to any NATO deployment of troops and equipment in the Baltic region.”

Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova also stressed that “Russia will not ignore NATO’s actions.” Meanwhile, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that Russia will take technical and military measures to “protect its territorial integrity.”

Along with its tough statements, Russia has proven that it is not an “easy” opponent, capable of making “empty” statements. Just a few days before the NATO Summit opened, Russia announced that it would deploy two Podsolnukh long-range radar stations in the Baltic and Crimea to “detect any warships passing through the Bosphorus Strait”.

Model of modern Russian electronic warfare systems. Photo: Réseau international

With the ability to monitor warships and fighter jets at a distance of up to 450km, this radar system will help Russia closely monitor all NATO movements. In addition, Russia also announced that it is completing the construction of the last 3 submarine docks in the port of Novorossiysk on the Black Sea, about 1,500km south of the capital Moscow. The new base of the Black Sea Fleet will have 6 Varshavyanka-class submarines capable of firing at targets at a distance of 2,500km...

Of course, the scenario of conflict between Russia and NATO is very unlikely. However, in the context of the current not-so-good relationship between Russia and NATO, if there are no appropriate steps, a new arms race, a new Cold War that is harmful to both sides is entirely possible, negatively affecting the peace, stability, and security of both Russia and European countries. Currently, both sides have declared that they are open to bilateral dialogues to resolve differences and ease tensions.

The nearest opportunity will be the Russia-NATO Council meeting on July 13. Obviously, Russia understands that an arms race is not beneficial for Russia when Russia is in a position of “using few to fight many”. On the NATO side, the bloc also does not want to eliminate Russia’s important role in resolving many hot issues in the region and the world, including negotiations to end the prolonged war in eastern Ukraine or end the civil war in Syria.

However, according to analysts, these calculations are only enough for Russia and NATO to stop the “downhill” trend, but are unlikely to improve bilateral relations in the current context. Therefore, it is likely that the upcoming meeting on July 13 will still be a “dialogue between deaf people”!

Thuy Ngoc