Russia-Türkiye relations: The nightmare will not return.

(Baonghean) - Concerns about a disruption in relations between Russia and Türkiye arose following the assassination of Russian Ambassador to Türkiye Andrei Karlov on December 19th. However, this will not happen again, given the determination of both countries. The strategy of deep cooperation between the two sides will continue despite any attempts to obstruct it.

The forces behind it

The moment when the perpetrator Mevlut Mert Altintas pulled out a gun and fired at the Russian diplomatic representative in Türkiye has been widely reported in the international press over the past few days. It may best illustrate the violence and extremism most vividly and hauntingly. But let's consider Altintas's motives for acting in this way.

It is clear that this individual had meticulously prepared to carry out the attack at a crowded event, in front of the press and police. Altintas used a police badge to gain entry to the photo exhibition hall where Mr. Karlov was giving a speech, even though he was not assigned to the task that day.

Thanks to this "pass," he was able to carry a gun and stand right behind the Russian ambassador to pull the trigger. It must have taken clear mental and physical preparation, and even a team behind him, for Altintas to be able to cause such a shocking incident.

Marina, wife of Russian Ambassador to Türkiye Andrei Karlov, stands beside her husband's coffin during a ceremony at Esenboga Airport in Ankara (The Independent).

The question is why this incident happened to Russian Ambassador Andrei Karlov, and at a time when relations between Russia and Türkiye were on the path to recovery after a period of estrangement?

Based on the current context in Türkiye, most assessments conclude that Mevlut Mert Altintas, a member of Ankara's riot police, intended to use this action to undermine the recently mended Russia-Turkey relationship, or more simply, to create further instability in Turkey's already turbulent security situation.

This initial assessment is well-founded because both Russia and Türkiye are highly likely to become targets of terrorism. Both countries are deeply involved in the crisis in Syria, where terrorist and extremist groups are fighting for territory with the Syrian government army, which is supported by Russia.

Türkiye also has strategic interests here, where it harbors ambitions of becoming a regional power. Meanwhile, Kurdish militants are seeking to exploit the instability in their neighbor to establish an independent state in southern Turkey. This makes intervention inevitable for Turkey.

The intertwining, even conflicting, interests led to tension after Turkey shot down a Russian Su-24 fighter jet in Syria. Clearly, both countries understand the need for better reconciliation of interests in this strategic region. Therefore, the normalization of relations between Russia and Türkiye is inevitable. It opens up opportunities for cooperation not only in economics but also in security and counter-terrorism.

The December 20 meeting between Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, and their Iranian counterpart Mohammad Javad Zarif was one such effort. The problem is that Türkiye itself is grappling with an increasingly complex security dilemma.

The self-proclaimed Islamic State (IS), Kurdish fighters, and even forces loyal to cleric Fethullah Gullen are all on the list of suspects behind this incident.

Continue on the path you have chosen.

A consistent stance was affirmed by the leaders of Russia and Türkiye immediately after the incident. Unease and anxiety gripped both Russia and Türkiye, but there was no panic. Very quickly, Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Turkish counterpart held a telephone conversation, reaffirming their determination to combat terrorism and strengthen cooperation.

Russia has sent an investigative team to Ankara to coordinate with the host country in clarifying the conspiracy behind this action. The meeting between the foreign ministers of Russia, Türkiye, and Iran to address the Syrian issue still took place in Moscow on December 20th as planned. All three sides affirmed their common position on a political and diplomatic solution for Syria, a path to bringing peace to the region and eradicating terrorism.

Residents of Aleppo, Syria, are evacuating from the conflict zone in an effort by Russia (Military.com)

That is the most accurate answer to the forces plotting to incite riots and instability. Even with this meeting, many believe that the US has been sidelined in a solution orchestrated by Russia, Iran, and Turkey in Syria. If this is true, it would be a very "unique" and unexpected move by both Russia and Turkey.

In fact, both Russia and Türkiye know they need to stand together for greater strategic interests, and shouldn't lose their composure over schemes like this. This relationship had only just been restored less than four months after the historic meeting between the two presidents.

Türkiye has also experienced the full extent of the damage once Russia stops "doing business." Most notably, approximately $9 billion evaporated in nearly a year following Russian sanctions, affecting everything from tourism to agriculture. This figure directly impacted the Turkish economy, which was already suffering from security instability and terrorism.

Joining forces with Russia at this time is necessary because Türkiye would also legitimately play a major role in a solution in Syria. This would certainly be a step that enhances President Erdogan's international standing.

On the Russian side, the country also needs a long-term and strong partner for the "Turkish Stream" gas pipeline and the newly restarted Akkuyu nuclear power plant. Moscow needs Türkiye's assurances to ensure the gas reaches the European market.

Following the prolonged oil price shock, particularly the Western sanctions, Russia now needs such commitments to improve its economic situation. Clearly, Russia and Türkiye have reason to continue on their chosen path despite the dark schemes hindering them.

Thanh Son