Russia-Türkiye Relations: The Haunting That Will Not Return

(Baonghean) - Concerns about the disruption of Russia-Türkiye relations arose after the assassination of Russian Ambassador to Türkiye Andrei Karlov on December 19. But that will not happen again with the determination of both countries. The strategy of deep cooperation between the two sides will continue despite the plots to hinder it.

The forces behind

The moment when the perpetrator Mevlut Mert Altintas pulled out a gun and opened fire on the Russian diplomatic representative in Türkiye has been repeatedly reported by the international press in the past few days. It may be the clearest, most haunting depiction of violence and extremism. But let’s consider more carefully Altintas’s motives for doing so.

It is clear that this subject had prepared very carefully to act at a crowded event, in front of the press and police. Altintas used his police badge to enter the photo exhibition hall where Mr. Karlov was giving a speech, even though he was not assigned to that day.

Thanks to this “command token”, he was able to wear a gun and stand right behind the Russian ambassador to pull the trigger. There must have been clear mental and physical preparation, even a team behind him to support, for Altintas to be able to cause such a shocking incident.

Ms. Marina - Wife of Russian Ambassador to Türkiye Andrei Karlov with her husband's coffin during the ceremony at Esenboga airport, capital Ankara (The Independent)

The question is why did this happen to Russian ambassador Andrei Karlov and at a time when Russian-Turkish relations were on the mend after a period of hiatus?

Based on the current situation in Türkiye, most of the comments come to the conclusion that Mevlut Mert Altintas, a member of the Ankara riot police, wanted to use this action to sabotage the recently repaired Russia-Turkey relationship. Or more simply, to cause insecurity in the already chaotic security situation in Türkiye.

This initial assessment is well-founded because both Russia and Türkiye are likely to become targets of terrorism. Both countries are deeply involved in the crisis in Syria, where terrorist and extremist groups are fighting for territory with the Syrian government army, which is supported by Russia.

Türkiye also has strategic interests here, where it has ambitions to become a regional power. And Kurdish militants are trying to take advantage of the instability in the neighboring country to create an independent state in southern Turkey. That makes it impossible for this country to delay in intervening.

The intertwined and even opposing interests have led to tension after Türkiye shot down a Russian Su-24 fighter jet in Syria. It is clear that both countries understand the need to better coordinate their interests in this strategic area. Therefore, the normalization of relations between Russia and Türkiye is inevitable. It brings opportunities for cooperation not only in economics but also in security and counter-terrorism.

The December 20 meeting between Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and his Iranian counterpart Mohammad Javad Zarif was one such effort. The problem is that Türkiye itself is caught in an increasingly complex security dilemma.

The self-proclaimed Islamic State (IS), Kurdish fighters, and even forces loyal to cleric Fethullah Gulen are all suspected of being behind the incident.

Continue on the chosen path

The consistent stance was affirmed by the leaders of Russia and Türkiye immediately after this incident. Uncertainty and anxiety covered Russia and Türkiye, but there was no panic. Very quickly, Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Turkish counterpart had a phone call, affirming their determination to fight terrorism and strengthen cooperation.

Russia has sent an investigation team to Ankara to coordinate with the host country to clarify the plot behind this action. The meeting between the foreign ministers of Russia, Türkiye and Iran to resolve the Syria issue still took place in Moscow on December 20 as planned. And all three sides affirmed their common views on a political and diplomatic solution for Syria, the way to bring peace to the region and eliminate terrorism.

Residents of Aleppo, Syria are being evacuated from the war zone in an effort by Russia (Military.com)

That is the most accurate answer to the forces that are plotting to cause riots and instability. Even with this meeting, many opinions say that the US has been left out of a solution led by Russia, Iran and Turkey in Syria. If this is true, it will be a very "unique" and unexpected step by both Russia and Turkey.

In fact, both Russia and Türkiye know that they need to stand together for larger strategic interests, rather than lose their cool over such plots. This relationship has only been restored less than 4 months after the historic meeting between the two presidents.

Türkiye has also experienced enough damage once Russia stopped “doing business”. Most notably, about 9 billion USD evaporated in nearly a year after Russia’s embargoes on tourism and agriculture. This figure has directly impacted the Turkish economy, which has suffered many consequences due to security instability and terrorism.

Working with Russia is necessary now because Türkiye will also “openly” play a big role in a solution in Syria. It is certainly a step to raise President Erdogan’s international position.

Russia, on the other hand, is also in need of a strong, long-term partner for the Turkish Stream gas pipeline and the newly restarted Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant. Moscow needs Türkiye's guarantees for the gas to reach the European market.

After the prolonged oil price shock, and especially the Western sanctions, Russia now needs such commitments to improve its economic situation. Clearly, Russia and Türkiye have reasons to continue on the chosen path despite the dark plots that stand in the way.

Thanh Son