Determined to defend Saudi Arabia: Will Trump face consequences?

Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (left) and US President Donald Trump at the White House on March 20, 2018. Photo: AFP

Faced with a series of criticisms and objections from domestic and international lawmakers, public opinion has questioned whether President Trump is "betting" too much on this stormy alliance relationship?

Inconsistent

Just a day or two ago, the public was still wondering what US President Donald Trump would do after the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) announced that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman ordered the murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi. It is not difficult to understand why the US leader's attitude has changed continuously in recent times regarding the shocking murder of this journalist.

On October 13, Mr. Trump himself announced that Saudi Arabia could be behind the mysterious disappearance of journalist Khashoggi, despite the country's strong reaction. And that, if confirmed, the US would have severe sanctions. This statement at that time was like a "cold water" poured on the already stormy and conflicted alliance. In response, ally Saudi Arabia also "tensely" confronted the US by listing up to 30 countermeasures if the US was determined to impose sanctions.

But just over a month later, the situation has completely changed. Despite the CIA directly accusing the Saudi Crown Prince, President Trump issued a statement supporting maintaining the alliance with Saudi Arabia. Notably, the most important content that the public is waiting for, whether or not Mr. Trump agrees with the CIA's conclusion, is completely unclear.

Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman

“King Salman and Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman have denied any knowledge of the plot to kill journalist Jamal Khashoggi,” the statement said. “As U.S. intelligence continues to assess the facts, it is possible that the Crown Prince knew something about the murder, but it is also possible that he did not. That means we may never know for sure what happened to journalist Jamal Khashoggi. But the United States will continue to maintain its relationship with Saudi Arabia.”

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With this statement, President Trump has completely changed his attitude, clearly affirming his support for allies, despite opposition within the United States and the international community.

Behind the “storm”

A number of reasons have been pointed out behind the constant change in the US administration’s attitude towards its ally Saudi Arabia. These include economic contracts, arms sales, or the fact that this country is a bridge to help the US implement its policies and goals in the Middle East. These are the ties that have made the alliance between the two sides close for decades. Of course, there have been times when the relationship between the two sides was troubled and conflicted, but that has not caused the US to completely turn its back on this important Middle Eastern ally.

Journalist Khashoggi was murdered

Up to this point, oil and gas, weapons, geopolitical interests, the Iran issue, and the Israel-Palestine dossier are still the "keywords" that bind the relationship between the two countries. That is why in his latest statement, President Trump did not hesitate to "ignore" the Khashoggi case and praised the benefits that Saudi Arabia brings to the US: "After visiting Saudi Arabia last year, the country agreed to invest 450 billion USD in the US. This record amount of money will create jobs for hundreds of thousands of people as well as create more wealth for the American people". And that, "Saudi Arabia is a great ally of the US in the fight against Iran. The US will continue to be a strong ally of Saudi Arabia in the region...".

International observers also commented that the constant changes in President Trump's attitude are closely related to recent visits and phone calls between the US and Saudi Arabia. It is very possible that the "bargains" between the two sides in many areas - especially the economy - have been "negotiated" smoothly by the leaders of the two countries. Obviously, with President Donald Trump's "America First" policy, this possibility is entirely possible. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia in the "Khashoggi whirlwind" must certainly need the support of its US allies more than ever.

Not only affirming the strong relationship with Saudi Arabia, President Trump also did not hide his concern that if this relationship is troubled, it will only benefit rivals such as Russia or China. This is clearly something that Mr. Trump does not want, when Russia still has many advantages in the Middle East geostrategic region.

Good or bad?

The economic, investment and arms benefits are certainly undeniable when the US maintains relations with Saudi Arabia. Notable examples include the $350 billion arms import deal signed last year or the plan to invest tens of billions of dollars in US infrastructure. Geopolitically, the US has the most military bases in Saudi Arabia in the Middle East, and the two countries also stand on the same front in the war with Iran and share the same views on the Israel-Palestine issue.

US President Donald Trump during his visit to Saudi Arabia on May 21, 2017. Photo: Reuters

However, the relationship between the two sides has encountered many problems and conflicts in recent times, such as Saudi Arabia leading a coalition to intervene in the war in Yemen in 2015 and the Gulf crisis when Saudi Arabia and its allies isolated Qatar economically and diplomatically in 2017. Especially with the murder of journalist Khashoggi, US officials have questioned the US-Saudi Arabia alliance. Whether the US should risk its reputation and voice to protect economic and arms contracts with this scandalous ally.

Not only that, the contracts between the two countries are so big but the reality is not entirely as expected. The last straw came when lawmakers in both houses criticized President Donald Trump's pro-Saudi stance. Most recently, US Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob Corker and committee member Bob Menendez sent a letter to the President, asking for a "clear determination" on whether Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman was involved in the death of journalist Jamal Khashoggi.

Not only that, President Trump will certainly also face a lot of reactions from the international community, including European allies such as Germany and France. The incident will further isolate the US, after a series of controversial policies of this country in the Middle East such as withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal or moving the Embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.

Obviously, the benefits are not small but the consequences are also not small when President Trump is determined to support Saudi Arabia. The current issue is whether behind all the public statements, Mr. Trump can create pressure for Saudi Arabia to change its policies and attitudes in a more moderate direction in the coming time. This will make the US gain economic benefits with Saudi Arabia, while at the same time calming public opinion both domestically and internationally, which will not easily ignore this shocking incident!