Following the assassination of General Qassem Suleimani: Has the game changed in the Middle East?

The death of a prominent figure

According to VOX, the attack that killed Suleimani also claimed the life of Kataib Hezbollah leader, an Iranian proxy militia in Iraq that has repeatedly attacked the US and its allies and recently launched rockets at a US military base.

Those attacks killed one American contractor, leading to retaliation from the United States that resulted in 25 deaths in attacks in Iraq and Syria.

In other operations, U.S. forces also captured and detained leaders of other key Iraqi militia groups with close ties to Iran.

General Qasem Soleimani, killed in the US attack, was one of the most prominent figures in Iran. Photo: AFP

The death of Suleimani, the leader of the Quds Force of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC-QF), as mentioned above, will impact bilateral relations and the overall situation in the volatile Middle East.

The death of Suleimani, the leader of the Quds Force of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC-QF), as mentioned above, will impact bilateral relations and the overall situation in the volatile Middle East. However, the extent of this impact depends on the US's readiness for potential retaliation from Iran and its various proxies in the region. But, based on the Trump administration's track record there, observers believe there is indeed reason to be concerned.

It would be difficult to overstate the already immense influence of Suleimani. Because Iran's conventional forces are relatively weak, Tehran often operates through militias, militant groups, and other proxy factions to advance its interests abroad.

The IRGC is believed to have played a leading role in many of these operations. In Iraq and in countries where Iran plays a military and political role—such as Yemen, Lebanon, Syria, Afghanistan—as well as with the Palestinians, the IRGC is often the dominant player in Iran's foreign policy, or at least has a significant voice.

In April, the Trump administration made the unusual move of officially designating the IRGC as a terrorist group, even though it is an "arm" of the Iranian state, rather than a non-state entity, unlike most entities on the US list of terrorist organizations.

Suleimani was seen as a symbol of Iran's power, prestige, and influence.

Suleimani has long been the "architect" of many of Iran's most controversial foreign policy issues, and he and the IRGC-QF are responsible to the United States for the deaths of many Americans. Having held supreme power over the Quds Force since 1998, Suleimani built a network of power in Iran and through numerous proxy branches of the IRGC. He is seen as a symbol of Iran's power, prestige, and influence.

Images released by the Iraqi president's office show the wreckage after the drone strike targeting General Qassem Suleiman, ordered by President Donald Trump. Photo: AP

An unpredictable retaliation?

According to some analysts, the US will pay a heavy price for causing Suleimani's death, and due to the Quds Force's extensive network, Iran will have many "stages" to retaliate against the US.

The most likely scenario would be attacks targeting U.S. forces and facilities in Iraq. Tehran has spent approximately 15 years building extensive networks within Iraqi militias and political circles.

Earlier this week, before Seleimani's death, Iran was able to quickly mobilize local factions to stage violent protests at the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, posing a significant security risk to those working there, even as Tehran's local allies avoided killing any more Americans. Now, the situation promises to be far more complicated.

That's not even taking into account that the US attack also killed Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, the leader of the Kataib Hezbollah militia, along with many other high-ranking pro-Iranian figures in Iraq.

This "grudge" is also difficult to ignore, because in addition to wanting to please Iran, pro-Iranian militia groups in Iraq will be enraged by the death of al-Muhandis and the capture of their leaders, and will naturally harbor intentions of revenge.

General Qassem Soleimani (left), head of Iran's elite Quds Force, and Iraqi militia commander Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis were killed in an airstrike at Baghdad airport. Photo: Reuters

On the other hand, many Iraqi politicians, due to circumstances and choice, possess close ties to Iran and will increase pressure to "oust" the US from Iraq. Comparing the US and Iran, it's clear that Iran has more allies and influence in Iraq, and many Iraqi leaders are likely to yield to Iranian pressure.

U.S. military forces in Afghanistan and Syria also face risks, despite both being well-prepared due to their familiarity with threats from ISIS, the Taliban, and other dangerous groups. The IRGC and its proxy groups could also attack U.S. embassies and other government-linked targets.

While Iran may retaliate, the extent and scope of such action are difficult to predict. Hardliners will call for the U.S. to pay the price for Suleimani's death.

But Iran has long recognized that its military is weaker than that of the United States, and Tehran's leadership understands that in a full-scale confrontation, they could lose.

However, the approach of years past—provocation followed by restraint when the situation threatened to spiral out of control—may not necessarily be the scenario applied this time, given that a key figure like Suleimani has been eliminated by the enemy.

A crowd protested in front of the US embassy in Baghdad earlier this week. Photo: AFP

Consequences of escalation

So, was the Trump administration prepared for the consequences of a potential escalation? This depends on how ready the U.S. is to respond to the inevitable retaliation from Iran.

In fact, careful consideration is not a strong point of the Trump administration, and for them, focusing on the immediate satisfaction of eliminating an enemy that caused the deaths of many Americans and allies is easier than thinking about the long-term consequences of that attack.

In recent times, the most important thing for the United States in the Middle East – its allies – has frequently been met with rejection from the Trump administration. Therefore, at this point, it's difficult to say whether allies will side with Washington, and even if they do, the enthusiasm is probably minimal.

President Trump has made no secret of his desire to end the U.S. military presence in the Middle East. But, with the death of Seleimani, the U.S. may face a dilemma.

They could remain entrenched in the Middle East, with relatively thin forces in Iraq, Syria, and Afghanistan, meaning they would be vulnerable to Iranian attacks.

Alternatively, they could continue withdrawing more troops in the face of the Iranian threat, watching their influence wane and handing more regional power to Iran.

US troops in the Middle East. Photo: Middle East Eye

In short, the deaths of Suleimani and other pro-Iranian figures in Iraq could be a turning point for the U.S. in the region. The extent of the consequences, and what will happen to the U.S. afterward, will depend on the Trump administration's agility, long-term thinking, and close cooperation with allies.

But so far, Trump's Middle East policy suggests the opposite is more likely to happen in reality. Therefore, eliminating Suleimani may only be a short-lived victory for the United States.