SDF declares defeat of IS in Syria: The war is not over yet

The SDF claims to have wiped out the last remnants of the group in its stronghold in eastern Syria. But will that be enough to end a war that has lasted more than eight years?

SDF becomes a counterweight

Fighters from the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) surrounded and liberated the village of Baghouz from IS last week. Photo: Getty Images

SDF spokesman Mustefa Bali said on March 23 that the SDF declared a complete defeat of IS and control of the entire village of Baghouz, the last IS stronghold in eastern Syria. The victory in Baghouz is a major milestone in the fight against IS by regional and international forces over the past four years. This is also considered an important moment in the civil war that has entered its ninth year in Syria, marking one of the notorious terrorist organizations that once occupied a large part of the territory, now being driven out of this country.

The SDF’s assertion came just a day after US President Donald Trump declared IS’s complete defeat in Syria, showing reporters maps of the area liberated by the SDF. One showed large areas once controlled by IS and the other showed the situation – as of March 22 – with no IS presence in Syria.

Since 2014, IS has occupied large parts of Syria and Iraq, turning them into its main strongholds before gradually disintegrating due to attacks from international forces as well as the Iraqi and Syrian government forces. Since December 2018, the SDF has stepped up its operations against IS in Syria, driving them out of a large area in northeastern Syria and regaining control of one-third of the country's territory. Meanwhile, the government of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, with significant Russian assistance, has liberated and regained control of more than two-thirds of the territory.

The loss of IS territory and eventual demise has been long anticipated. The terrorist organization has been hunted down in Syria and Iraq after a period of dominating the Middle East, facing a powerful counter-terrorism force from many countries.

However, it is difficult to guarantee that the threat from IS has been completely eliminated with the latest announcement of the US-backed SDF. IS once built a stronghold and occupied a large part of Syria and Iraq for a long time, defeating IS on the ground is said to be unable to eliminate all the risks. Some IS gunmen are still entrenched in the vast desert in central Syria and scattered in Iraqi cities to carry out surprise shootings, kidnap civilians and wait for the opportunity to rise up.

How far is the road to peace?

The war in Syria is far from over even though IS has been defeated. Photo: AP

The victory of the Kurdish armed forces in northeastern Syria has created a new situation on the Syrian battlefield, and may also affect the political future and peace here. Although President Bashar al-Assad's forces now control two-thirds of Syria's territory and vital trade routes, they have yet to retake some key areas such as the oil-rich northeastern Syria, which is still controlled by Kurdish fighters. This could be the key to the situation going forward.

Just before the SDF took its final steps to wipe out IS traces in the northeast, Syrian Defense Minister Ali Abdullah Ayyoub said on March 18 that the US-backed SDF would face two options: either reconcile with the government, or the Syrian army would take back the SDF-controlled areas by force. Mr. Ayyoub declared that the Syrian state would liberate all of its territory sooner or later, emphasizing that Syria would not leave even an inch of land out of its control.

The Syrian central government has thus signaled that the SDF will have to choose whether to be part of a unified Syria or become a target of ISIS. The solution now is for the government in Damascus and the SDF or other opposition forces to sit at the negotiating table to replace the fratricidal war that began in 2011.

Are peace talks on Syria feasible? In fact, many solutions to find a political roadmap to end the conflict in Syria have been promoted in recent years. Most notably, the peace talks sponsored by the United Nations (UN) in Geneva, Switzerland, which began in 2012, with the UN envoy in charge of Syria as a mediator, as well as the negotiations within the framework of the "Astana format", initiated by the troika of ceasefire guarantors including Russia, Iran and Türkiye since December 2016.

However, so far the negotiations under the auspices of the UN have not achieved many breakthroughs, if not failed as the fighting continues, while the parties have not been able to find common ground on the key issue of the fate of President Assad.

Meanwhile, 11 conferences held in the "Astana format" have achieved positive results with some steps creating momentum for a peaceful resolution of the Syrian issue, especially the agreement to establish the Syrian Constitutional Committee. The birth of this committee is expected to greatly contribute to the UN-sponsored peace process, paving the way for Syria to hold presidential and parliamentary elections in the future.

But putting the Syrian Constitutional Committee into operation is a big challenge because even though a year has passed, the parties have not yet agreed on the expected composition of 150 members, chosen by the government, the opposition and the UN special envoy. Not to mention, the fact that Russia, Iran and Türkiye are increasingly asserting their important cooperative role in the region seems to make the US and its regional allies unhappy. Different approaches, interests and goals have pushed the parties involved in the Syrian issue into two opposing fronts.

More than 8 years after the outbreak, the Syrian conflict remains a difficult problem. The Syrian battlefield can be considered a chaotic quagmire of intertwined and overlapping factors that always make everything chaotic. Ethnic and religious conflicts, factional disagreements, the struggle for influence of external forces, and the conflicting interests of the parties involved.

In Syria, in addition to the government forces and the opposition, the participation of world and regional powers, from the US, Russia to Iran, Saudi Arabia and Türkiye, with each force supporting one side, having different goals and interests, makes the conflict in the Middle Eastern country always unable to reach a final compromise. The story at this time is no longer just a conflict between President Assad's government and the opposition forces, the conflict in the Middle Eastern country has even been pushed to a new level when described as having a regional and international scale. Therefore, IS being pushed (in name) from the Syrian battlefield is not necessarily good news for peace here./.