Betting odds, find the champion of World Cup 2018

With the schedule as announced by the Organizing Committee, there will be 1 European representative in the final match among the 4 names England, Croatia, Russia, Sweden. The remaining group Brazil and Uruguay will compete with Belgium and France to be present in the final match of the biggest football festival on the planet.

We chose 3 criteria to choose the match for the 2018 World Cup final in Russia, which are current form, the latest FIFA rankings (June 2018) and historical statistics.

Cruel rules of the field

A FIFA statistic shows that the last 7 champions, since Brazil's success in 1994, have not conceded more than 4 goals in 7 matches. The recent World Cup seems to have no room for dedicated football, even big brands like Brazil, Spain, Portugal mostly play calculating.

Host Russia is considered the weakest of the eight teams that have reached the quarter-finals. Photo: CNN

The statistics of the Spain-Russia match were also unprecedented. The Spanish players had 80% possession, made more than 1,114 passes, 24 shots but missed 2 penalties, and ultimately lost to the home team who seemed to only focus on defending their goal.

The teams with the highest average ball possession in this World Cup were all eliminated, except for Germany, who were eliminated in the group stage, who also had over 67% ball possession, Spain over 71% and Argentina nearly 63%. Most of the teams that were considered weaker chose a tight defensive style of play with quick counter-attacks, especially the Asian and African teams, but in the end, only Russia and Sweden were successful.

Attacking a lot, holding the ball a lot still loses, defending with a large number of players still loses, only balancing both defense and attack and knowing how to seize opportunities will have a chance to go deep into the next round. That is the characteristic of modern football today, of which the 2018 World Cup is typical.

Odds

According to the latest FIFA rankings, the quarter-final match between Brazil (ranked 2nd) and Belgium (3rd) is considered to have the highest ranking, after Germany, who is currently at the top of the rankings, has returned home. Next is France (7) against Uruguay (14), Sweden (24) against England (12), and host Russia (70) against Croatia (20).

So it can be seen that the host Russia is still the team with the highest probability of being eliminated because reaching the quarter-finals by eliminating Spain on penalties was mainly due to luck. The home team's form was only shown in the first 2 matches before being defeated by Uruguay 3-0.

The 50-rank gap on the FIFA rankings shows that coach Chercheso will not have many opportunities, especially now that their goal difference is 9-5, signaling a not-so-strong defense.

Samba will make the "red devils" dizzy. Photo: CNN

On the contrary, Croatia showed that not only will they beat Russia but they can even be present in the final match because up to now the goal difference is 7-1. Compared to the "norm" of the champion not conceding more than 4 goals, Croatia completely meets the standard.

With their typical Nordic style of play, Sweden currently have a goal difference of 6-2, ranking 24th not too far from England in 12th place and having a goal difference of 9-4. With their current form, Sweden, not Kane, will advance. It would not be surprising if they and Croatia compete for the ticket to the final.

Obviously, France (ranked 7th in the rankings) is rated higher than Uruguay (14th), if only looking at each player. But clearly with the current goal-loss ratio of 7/4, France going deep and winning the championship is not in accordance with the "custom" of the last 7 World Cups.

Uruguay's 7-1 ratio is equal to Brazil's, even in the group stage they won 3 matches without conceding a goal, in the round of 16 they also defeated Portugal neatly. There is no reason for them to be afraid of the French team even though Cavani is having a slight injury problem.

The quarter-final match between Brazil (2nd) and Belgium (3rd) deserves to be considered an early final because with 12 goals, the "Red Devils" have the strongest attack among the remaining 8 teams. The 12/4 difference shows that Lukaku and his teammates deserve respect.

However, conceding 4 goals, including 2 goals by Japanese players, shows that no matter how creative Hazard is, with a defense like that, it will be difficult to beat Selecao.

Coach Tite is bringing a very balanced Brazilian squad to Russia, they can let Mexico attack and wait for the opportunity. With a series of current stars, Selecao plays well both counter-attacking and pressing, overwhelming the opponent. Neymar is a star, but the rest of the players, including the Brazilian defenders, can also score.

The 7-1 goal difference is also a “sign” that allows them to be present in the final, not just the quarter-finals and semi-finals. According to our assessment, in the final, Brazil will be the opponent of the winning pair Sweden and Croatia.