'Undercurrent' of arms race: Is Asian security unstable?

Record numbers

Despite the economic recession and negative impacts caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, defense spending in 2020 in Asian countries remained at nearly the same level as in 2019. According to the latest Military Balance report of the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), global defense spending in 2020 was at 1.83 trillion USD, only "slightly lower" than in 2019. Asia is also part of this trend. Meanwhile, in 2021, the increase in global defense spending is expected to decrease, but in the Asia-Pacific region alone, there will be a significant increase. From Japan to China, India or Australia, recent announcements show that governments are "making every effort" to prioritize military and defense strategies through remarkable numbers.

Military vehicles carrying DF-26 ballistic missiles during a military parade in 2015 in Beijing. Photo: Getty

At the fourth session of the 13th National People's Congress of China, the country's draft defense budget is expected to be around 1.36 trillion yuan (about 210 billion USD) in 2021, the second highest in the world, after the United States.China's military spendingis reported to “support the modernization of national defense and armed forces, helping military strength go hand in hand with economic growth.” The information was released in the context of China’s economy growing only 2.3% last year, the lowest level in the past 20 years, due to the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and trade tensions with the US. This is not surprising whenChina is harboring ambitionsbecome a military power.

In 2015, Chinese President Xi Jinping launched a sweeping project to transform the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) into a world-class fighting force, on par with the US military. He ordered investment in technology and shipyards. In 2015, the Chinese Navy had 255 warships, but by the end of 2020, that number had reached 360, and was expected to reach 400 in four years. China’s naval combat force has also more than tripled in just two decades. “China’s warships are increasingly sophisticated and capable,” Andrew Erickson, a professor at the US Naval War College, wrote in a February article. Thomas Shugart, a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, said: “From 2014 to 2018, China launched more submarines, warships, amphibious ships, and support vessels than are currently in service in the navies of Germany, India, Spain, and the United Kingdom. “With the pace of naval shipbuilding, and with the newer warships, I think China has progressed from a coastal defense navy to the most powerful naval force in the region,” Shugart said.

Along with China, other militarily strong countries in the region are not "standing still". The government of Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga recently agreed to propose the ninth consecutive increase in defense spending. Accordingly, Japan's defense budget for 2021 will be at a record level, nearly 52 billion USD, an increase of 1.1% compared to 2020. The goal of the "Land of the Rising Sun" is to allocate resources to build new stealth fighters and buy long-range anti-ship missiles. This could be a sign that Tokyo is on the way to achieving the ability to attack and prevent security threats from outside.

Japan has steadily increased its defense budget over the past decade. Photo: Kyodo

Similar,India also increased defense spending.for 2021-2022. In the budget announced in February 2021, the country's military spending increased slightly from 4.71 trillion rupees for 2020-2021 to 4.78 trillion rupees for 2021-2022. Australia also plans to spend more than 2% of its GDP on defense in 2021-2022.

"Undercurrent" of arms race

Along with economics, science and technology, culture, diplomacy, military power is an important criterion to establish a national position in the international arena. Some major countries develop military power, especially modern weapons, to create absolute advantages, to protect their superpower status, compete for strategic interests or deter "preemptive strikes". There are many opinions that global defense spending has increased dramatically in the past decade but could be reversed due to the consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic and the risk of economic recession. However, just looking at the defense budget picture of major countries in Asia last year and this year, it can be seen that this speculation is completely wrong.

This reality shows that immediate difficulties and challenges such as Covid-19 do not affect the long-term strategies of countries in asserting their positions. The common risks from the epidemic do not make countries more connected, more understanding, but from a comprehensive perspective, rivalry, competition and mutual wariness are growing. This means thatregional security environmentis gradually deteriorating as rival nations seek to use military force as a weapon of deterrence.

Indian tanks in a parade. Photo: SCMP

Currently, the regional political security environment continues to be fraught with instability and challenges. China's growing power is seen as a threat by countries in the region, and billions of dollars have been spent on new weapons to create a balance of power. In addition, another factor is that many Asian countries are increasingly economically powerful, capable of equipping themselves with means of protection to avoid dependence on the "umbrellas" of major allies. This also encourages countries to invest in military equipment, defense, etc. This reality leads to the fact that if countries increasingly strengthen their military power beyond what is necessary, it will continue to cause concern for other countries, invisibly creating a cycle that stimulates the "arms race".

Observers believe that to avoid such a massive arms race, causing global security instability, the optimal solution is to promote the role of multilateral mechanisms, multilateral control and supervision mechanisms and the commitment to binding responsibilities of countries according to signed conventions and treaties. The role of dialogue and diplomacy is also an important form to help push back the "undercurrents" of the arms race.