NATO's vision depends on Donald Trump's 'unknown'

Many important issues

Just like any previous "overseas" trip, this trip to England by US President Donald Trump also caused a stir even before it began.

The presence of the US President in a close ally across the Atlantic at an important time - before the election - and attending NATO's 70th birthday celebration is enough to give international observers enough topics to pay attention and discuss.

Mr. Trump's visit to the UK this time has made many politicians in London suspicious.

Since his candidacy and subsequent election, Mr. Trump has consistently expressed support for Britain's exit from the European Union (Brexit) and criticized British politicians for wasting time on protracted Brexit debates.

Therefore, Mr. Trump's visit to the UK this time has made many politicians in London suspicious. Notably, Mr. Trump's presence comes just 10 days before the UK enters the election that will decide the path to Brexit.

US President Donald Trump meets with British Prime Minister Boris Johnson. Photo: Getty Images

In October, Mr Trump said opposition Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn would be “very bad” for Britain and that Mr Johnson should work with Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage.

The statement is considered quite sensitive and Prime Minister Boris Johnson himself had to declare: "What we do not do is interfere in other countries' election campaigns. The best thing between good friends like the UK and the US is not to influence each other's elections." This message is seen as a warning for US leaders not to interfere in the upcoming election in the UK.

In fact, during his previous visits to the UK (last July and this June), President Trump was never “popular” with the British people. Before each visit, protests by thousands of people against him raised concerns about security issues, even creating a tense atmosphere at the meeting table.

However, during his trip to the UK, Mr. Trump's main topic was not Brexit, nor was it the US-UK relationship, but NATO issues. Observers said that this topic was enough to make Mr. Trump no longer have time to pay attention to Brexit.

Indeed, NATO, on its 70th birthday, is facing a series of problems, both objective and subjective. These include divisions among member countries, weakening of ties, and lack of confidence in NATO's future...

One of the reasons for these problems comes from the views and policies of President Donald Trump - who has never felt satisfied with multilateral organizations like NATO. That is why what Mr. Trump will say at this event is causing confusion and concern for those involved.

Remember, at the 2018 NATO Summit in Brussels, Mr. Trump “blew away” the conference by constantly criticizing European allies for not meeting the 2% GDP contribution to the NATO budget as committed. The White House owner also pointed the finger at Germany, affirming that the cooperation project to build the Nord Stream 2 oil pipeline between Moscow and Berlin would negatively affect NATO security.

Observers believe that the topic of sharing the financial burden, specifically asking European countries to spend more on their military, will certainly be mentioned again by Mr. Trump, especially since he recently asked South Korea to increase defense spending by 5 times for the presence of the US military in this Northeast Asian country...

NATO leaders attend the 2018 Summit in Brussels, Belgium. Photo: Getty

What will happen to NATO?

This question has become a hot topic in many international forums recently, especially after French President Emmanuel Macron's public comment that "NATO is brain dead".

Of course, this question will be difficult to answer at the meeting of the leaders of the member countries in the next 2 days. The European press commented that this event is mainly symbolic. There will be handshakes and congratulations, but it will be difficult for the 29 leaders of NATO member countries to look in the same direction, if anything, there will be a few proposals for the future of NATO.

For example, France and Germany have just proposed establishing in-depth study groups to shape the future of NATO, which means building a new political doctrine for NATO alongside its military doctrine in the new international security environment.

This proposal is expected to bring about qualitative changes to NATO, but it cannot be implemented immediately and requires time for research, analysis, and consultation. Therefore, according to analysts, it will be 2021 at the earliest for NATO to complete a new doctrine and a new strategic vision.

French President Emmanuel Macron (left) meets NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg in Paris on November 28. Photo: AP

Whether NATO can build an atmosphere of solidarity and consensus depends largely on the US side and President Donald Trump personally.

In the short term, whether NATO can build an atmosphere of unity and consensus depends largely on the US and President Donald Trump himself. His impeachment process at home or the British people's reaction to his visit are expected to have a huge impact on Trump's mood.

That is why the British host cleverly organized the event, shortening the schedule compared to other summits, possibly without a joint lunch of NATO leaders to avoid the situation where President Trump could make a sudden statement or decision.

Observers say that with the breakdown in relations between Europe and the US over the past few years, including the personal relationship between Donald Trump and European leaders, such as Angela Merkel, European countries may not be interested in mending relations within NATO at this time, but will wait until the US presidential election at the end of next year, hoping for a change in the US administration.

Of course, during this waiting period, NATO member leaders cannot ignore the fact that this military alliance is increasingly crumbling and needs a major reform to revive NATO at the age of 70./.