Where did the missile that shot down the Russian Su-25 fighter jet come from?

Russia determined to investigate the Su-25 plane crash to the end

Russian lawmakers on February 4 called for a full and comprehensive investigation into the origin of the MANPADS shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missile that Syrian rebels used to shoot down a Russian Su-25 aircraft a day earlier.

In an interview with Interfax news agency, Mr. Frants Klintsevich, First Deputy Chairman of the Defense and Security Committee of the Russian Senate, said: "We will investigate and this investigation includes many issues, from the type of MANPADS missile used to the context of the Su-25 being shot down."

Mr. Klintsevich expressed hope that the investigation agency could collect evidence easily thanks to the “flexibility of drones and space surveillance equipment in the area.”

Russian lawmakers said that, militarily, the loss of a Su-25 is not a big deal for the Russian military. However, politically, the attack is very serious and will have serious consequences.

"Russia is very interested in knowing how this missile ended up in the hands of the militants in Syria. The Russian Air Force is currently working with the Syrian special forces to conduct an investigation at the scene to find missile spare parts, from which we will trace the missile's serial number. Then we will contact the factory that produced this missile as well as the country that sold it to find out how the missile ended up in the hands of terrorists in Syria," RIA news agency quoted Russian MP Vikotor Volodarsky as saying.

Deputy Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Russian State Duma, Dmitry Novikov, also proposed transferring the results of the investigation into the downing of the Su-25 to the United Nations Security Council.

Immediately after the S5-25 aircraft was shot down, the Russian air force launched a series of airstrikes on the hideout of the terrorist organization Jabhat al-Nursa in the city of Saraqeb, Idlib province, northwestern Syria, killing 30 terrorists.

Many hypotheses about the origin of missiles

Interfax news agency quoted Russian MP Dmitry Sablin as saying that the MANPADS system used by the rebels to shoot down the Russian Su-25 aircraft was brought into Syria from a neighboring country a few days ago. He affirmed that countries exporting these weapons to Syria for use against Russia must understand that they will be punished.

Igor Morozov, a member of the Russian Federation Council, said the man-portable air defense system (MANPADS) used in the downing of the Russian Su-25 in Syria most likely came from the Vinnytsia weapons depot in Ukraine.

According to him, in September 2017, a major fire broke out at this arsenal, destroying 32,000 tons of artillery shells and it is not possible to rule out the possibility that this was an intentional act to steal weapons without the knowledge of the Ukrainian government.

Through many smuggling routes, these weapons fell into the hands of Syrian terrorists. However, Mr. Igor Morozov did not rule out the possibility that MANPADS were stolen from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) weapons storage facilities, located in one of the member states in Eastern Europe.

Meanwhile, Mr. Frants Klintsevich, First Deputy Chairman of the Defense and Security Committee of the Russian Senate, said that the Syrian rebels received this type of weapon from the US through a third country. “Without external support and guarantees, the Syrian rebels could not have MANPADS missiles. And the only supplier could be the US,” he said.

The US Department of Defense immediately rejected the above hypothesis. US Department of Defense spokesman Eric Pahon said that the US did not provide MANPADS shoulder-fired missiles to any allied forces in Syria and has no intention of doing so in the future.

The US operation is focused solely on the fight against the Islamic State (IS) in Syria. The US will assess the authenticity of the information provided to protect its allies in Syria and will also provide the Russian government with relevant information about this incident.

Under the 2017 Defense Authorization Act, signed under former President Barack Obama, the US Department of Defense was authorized to equip Syrian rebels with MANPADS. At the time, Russia was furious at the US move, saying it would complicate the conflict in Syria and directly threaten the operations of the Russian Air Force in Syria.

The rebels have easy access to MANPADS because they are readily available in the Middle East from a variety of sources, said Theodore Karasik, research director at the US-based Institute for Near East and Gulf Analysis. The Soviet Union, and later Russia, transferred this type of missile to the Syrian military for defense purposes, with an estimated 16,000 between 1970 and 2010.

Meanwhile, Türkiye, through the Rocketsan company, not only produces MANPADS for sale on the international market but also transfers these weapons to opposition factions in Syria, including the Free Syrian Army present around Idlip.

Potential risks to Russian military aircraft operating in Syria

The downing of the Su-25 aircraft has posed a security challenge to the Russian air force in its anti-terrorism operations on the Syrian battlefield.

Russian military expert Konstantin Sivkov said the reason the Su-25 is vulnerable to attack is because its radar system cannot recognize shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missiles such as Stinger or Igla because these missiles are equipped with automatic guided warheads.

MANPADs like the Igla have a range of about 3km. The Su-25 pilot may have flown at low altitude because he thought he was operating in a de-escalation zone, Sivkov said. Terrorists could have obtained MANPADs on the black market or through weapons depots in Syria or Iraq, Sivkov said.

Although the type of Su-25 has not been announced, according to military experts, the crashed Russian aircraft model was an old Su-25, not the Su-25SM3 version equipped with the advanced Vitbsk electronic defense system.

Military expert Michael Kofman of the US Wilson Center for Naval Analyses emphasized that Russia has deployed many Su aircraft lines to its military base in Syria, including Su-25, Su-24M2, Su-30 SM and Su-34.

Among these, the Su-25 has the ability to support close-to-the-ground support and attack targets very well. However, this type of aircraft has many weaknesses and is easily shot down by MANPADS shoulder-fired missiles - which are used to destroy low-flying aircraft.

This is not the first time a Russian aircraft operating in Syrian airspace has been shot down. Previously, in November 2015, a Russian Su-24 tactical bomber on a combat mission in Syrian territory, close to the Turkish border, was shot down by a Turkish Air Force F-16 fighter jet. The incident left behind long-lasting tensions in relations between Russia and Turkey./.