Where did the missile that shot down the Russian Su-25 fighter jet originate from?

Russia is determined to thoroughly investigate the downing of the Su-25 aircraft.

Russian lawmakers on February 4 called for a full and comprehensive investigation into the origin of the MANPADS (man-portable air defense system) missiles that Syrian rebels used to shoot down a Russian Su-25 aircraft the previous day.

In an interview with Interfax news agency, Frants Klintsevich, First Deputy Chairman of the Defense and Security Committee of the Russian Senate, said: “We will investigate, and this investigation will encompass many issues, from the type of MANPADS missiles used to the circumstances surrounding the downing of the Su-25 aircraft.”

Mr. Klintsevich expressed hope that investigators could easily gather evidence thanks to "the flexibility of drones and space surveillance equipment in the area."

Russian lawmakers argue that, militarily, the loss of a Su-25 by the Russian military is not a major issue. However, politically, the attack is very serious and will have severe consequences.

According to the RiA news agency, Russian MP Viktor Volodarsky stated: “Russia is very keen to know how this type of missile fell into the hands of militants in Syria. The Russian Air Force is currently cooperating with Syrian special forces to conduct an on-site investigation to search for missile parts, thereby tracing the missile's serial number. After that, we will contact the missile manufacturer and the country that sold them to find out how the missiles reached the terrorists in Syria.”

Dmitry Novikov, Deputy Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Russian State Duma, also proposed that the results of the investigation into the downing of the Su-25 be submitted to the United Nations Security Council.

Immediately after the S5-25 aircraft was shot down, the Russian Air Force launched a series of airstrikes targeting the stronghold of the Jabhat al-Nusra terrorist organization in the city of Saraqeb, Idlib province, northwestern Syria, killing 30 terrorists.

Many theories exist regarding the origin of the missile.

According to Interfax, citing Russian MP Dmitry Sablin, the MANPADS system used by rebels to shoot down the Russian Su-25 aircraft was brought into Syria from a neighboring country a few days ago. He asserted that countries exporting these weapons to Syria for use against Russia should understand that they will face sanctions.

Igor Morozov, a member of the Russian Federation Council, stated that the man-portable air defense systems (MANPADS) used in the downing of the Russian Su-25 in Syria most likely originated from the Vinnytsia weapons depot in Ukraine.

According to him, a major fire broke out at this weapons depot in September 2017, destroying 32,000 tons of artillery shells, and he did not rule out the possibility that this was a deliberate act to steal weapons without the knowledge of the Ukrainian authorities.

Through various smuggling routes, these weapons fell into the hands of Syrian terrorists. However, Igor Morozov did not rule out the possibility that MANPADS were stolen from NATO weapons depots located in one of the member states in Eastern Europe.

Meanwhile, Frants Klintsevich, First Vice Chairman of the Russian Senate's Defense and Security Committee, suggested that Syrian rebels received these weapons from the US through a third country. "Without external support and guarantees, Syrian rebels could not have MANPADS missiles. And the only country that could have supplied them is the US," he said.

The US Department of Defense immediately rejected the above hypothesis. US Department of Defense spokesman Eric Pahon stated that the US has not supplied MANPADS (man-portable air defense systems) to any allied forces in Syria and has no intention of doing so in the future.

The U.S. operation is focused solely on the fight against the Islamic State (IS) in Syria. The U.S. will assess the accuracy of the information provided to defend its allies in Syria and will also provide the Russian government with relevant information regarding this incident.

According to the 2017 National Defense Authorization Act, signed under former President Barack Obama, the US Department of Defense was authorized to equip Syrian rebels with MANPADS (Man-Operated Parachute Missile Systems). At the time, Russia was furious at the US move, arguing that it would further complicate the conflict in Syria and directly threaten the operations of the Russian air force in Syria.

Theodore Karasik, research director at the Institute for Near East and Gulf Analysis in the US, said that the reason rebels have easy access to MANPADS missiles is because they are readily available in the Middle East from various sources. The Soviet Union, and later Russia, transferred these missiles to the Syrian army for defense purposes, with an estimated 16,000 units supplied between 1970 and 2010.

While Türkiye, through its company Rocketsan, not only manufactures MANPADS for sale on the international market but also supplies these weapons to opposition factions in Syria, including the Free Syrian Army present around Idlib.

Potential risks to Russian military aircraft operating in Syria.

The downing of the Su-25 aircraft has posed a security challenge to the Russian air force as it conducts counter-terrorism operations in the Syrian battlefield.

According to Russian military expert Konstantin Sivkov, the reason the Su-25 is vulnerable to attack is because its radar system cannot detect shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missiles like the Stinger or Igla, as these missiles are equipped with auto-guided warheads.

Shoulder-fired missiles like the Igla have a range of about 3km. The Su-25 pilot may have been flying at a low altitude, thinking he was operating in a de-escalation zone, Sivkov noted. According to Sivkov, terrorists may have obtained MANPADs on the black market or through weapons depots in Syria or Iraq.

Although the exact model of the Su-25 has not been officially announced, military experts believe the crashed Russian aircraft was an older Su-25 model, not the Su-25SM3 version equipped with the advanced Vitbsk electronic defense system.

Military expert Michael Kofman of the Wilson Center for Naval Analysis in the US emphasized that Russia has deployed several types of Su aircraft to its military bases in Syria, including the Su-25, Su-24M2, Su-30 SM, and Su-34.

Among these, the Su-25 has excellent ground-tracking and attack capabilities. However, this type of aircraft has several weaknesses and is easily shot down by MANPADS (man-portable air defense systems) missiles – which are used to destroy low-flying aircraft.

This is not the first time a Russian aircraft operating in Syrian airspace has been shot down. Previously, in November 2015, a Russian Su-24 tactical bomber, while on a combat mission in Syrian territory near the Turkish border, was shot down by a Turkish F-16 fighter jet. This incident resulted in lasting tension in relations between Russia and Türkiye.