Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince: A New "Thorn" in the Eyes of the US Government

Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Photo: Getty

US President Donald Trump has long been an enthusiastic supporter of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's consolidation of power, while the crown prince has been working to forge a close relationship with Trump's son-in-law and adviser, Jared Kushner.

However, amid public uproar after Riyadh officials admitted that journalist Khashoggi was murdered inside the Saudi Arabian consulate in Istanbul, President Trump felt betrayed and took the first step to restrict visas for those involved in the incident.

Martin Indyk, a top Middle East policymaker under former President Bill Clinton, said that in fact, President Trump has tried to delegate regional policy to Saudi Arabia and Israel, because the White House boss is loosening America's commitments to the region.

But Mr. Indyk said that Prince Mohammed has instead raised concerns for Washington — not just over the Khashoggi killing but also in Yemen, where the U.S. is backing a Saudi-led bombing campaign against Houthi rebels, who are backed by Riyadh’s regional rival, Iran.

Mr. Indyk commented: "Mohammed bin Salman needs President Trump, the only survival of Crown Prince Salman depends on how Trump handles it."

US President Donald Trump. Photo: AP

Meanwhile, Joseph Bahout, an expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in the US, said the Crown Prince would need to show he was tough at home but would face “constant blackmail” from abroad.

“If Crown Prince Salman survives the crisis and maintains power and becomes king, he will be a weak king forever but at the same time very strong,” Mr. Bahout shared.

According to Mr. Bahout, Prince Mohammed could try to prove himself a strong ally of the United States, by taking a tougher stance on Iran, the Trump administration’s No. 1 enemy, or, in a less likely scenario, by implementing liberal reforms.

But the successor also appears to need to curry favor with Türkiye, which is leaking secrets about Khashoggi’s death. Erdogan could pressure Saudi Arabia to mend ties with Qatar, Turkey’s ally, or ease pressure on the Muslim Brotherhood, which Riyadh sees as a threat to its role in the Arab Spring protests.
Gary Grappo, former US ambassador to Oman and deputy head of the diplomatic corps in Riyadh, said that Crown Prince Mohammed had consolidated his power to a level that made it difficult for him to be removed, but Western powers were increasingly concerned about him after Khashoggi's death.

After decades of Saudi Arabia buying US weapons and enjoying Washington’s “protective shield,” Mr Grappo doubts Riyadh could easily switch to other suppliers such as Russia or China.