Zaporizhzhya nuclear disaster hangs over and the risk of World War III

Illustration photo: AFP

Could the Zaporizhzhya nuclear disaster lead to World War III?

On August 25, the Russian State Duma (lower house of parliament) held its first meeting since Russia launched a special military operation in Ukraine in February to discuss the situation at the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant.

"Those who shelled the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant should be well aware that this could be an accident on a planetary scale, not just in Ukraine or Europe. We must do everything to explain to these people and force them to comply with all security measures," said Communist Party leader Gennady Zyuganov.

Ukraine has denied Russian accusations that it shelled the nuclear power plant and instead accused Russia of launching attacks in and around the plant. While Russia and Ukraine trade accusations of sabotage at the Zaporizhzhya plant, the world is worried about an environmental crisis and the risk of a direct confrontation between Russia and NATO.

Although the scenario of a nuclear disaster remains a distant prospect, as long as fighting continues around the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant in southeastern Ukraine, concerns remain that any miscalculation could lead to a disaster with global implications and economic losses lasting for centuries.

World leaders have issued grim warnings about the risk of nuclear catastrophe while hardliners in Russia and NATO have said such an event could lead to wider war.

"Any deliberate sabotage that causes a radioactive leak at a nuclear reactor in Ukraine would be a violation of Article 5 of the NATO Charter," a British MP said, referring to the principle of "collective defense," which allows members of the alliance to deploy military forces to protect each other.

An emergency meeting of the United Nations Security Council was also held on the afternoon of August 23 in New York to discuss the situation at the Zaporizhzhya plant. Both Russia and Ukraine have insisted they want to end the conflict, but each side also believes the other is preparing to launch a "false flag" attack and cause a nuclear accident.

Russia and Ukraine's Key Strategic Goals

Meanwhile, the attacks on the Zaporizhzhya plant continue, and the fact remains that control of the plant is a key strategic goal for both sides. Neither Russia nor Ukraine wants to give up the Zaporizhzhya plant, despite Russia’s control of the facility and the continued supply of electricity to Ukrainian homes.

In fact, any explosion at the sensitive Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant located on the banks of the Dnipro River more than 160 km from the Crimean Peninsula could spread radioactive waste over a large area of ​​Europe.

"It is not an exaggeration to say that a stray missile or a prolonged shelling of the operating areas at the power plant could be catastrophic," said Lewis Blackburn, a researcher at a laboratory at the University of Sheffield.

The spread of ionized radioactive particles is determined by environmental factors such as wind direction and air humidity. Ukrainian researchers have built a model showing how radioactive particles would spread, which could reach Ukraine's neighbors, Poland and the Baltic states, in less than 24 hours.

If this happens, it will be one of the worst nuclear disasters in history, affecting the lives and livelihoods of millions of people in many countries. The nuclear disaster at the Zaporizhzhya plant could become a second Chernobyl or Fukushima.

In recent weeks, Russia and Ukraine have repeatedly blamed each other for "provocations" or "terrorist acts". Moscow stated: "The Russian military has not deployed any heavy weapons at the nuclear power plant or in the surrounding areas. Russia is taking all necessary measures to ensure the security of the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant".

A safe nuclear power plant is obviously more useful than one that is destroyed and leaking radiation. However, both Russia and Ukraine want not only to own the plant, but also to control the electricity it generates. Currently, Russia controls the physical facilities of the Zaporizhzhya plant, while Ukraine controls the electricity it generates – which accounts for 20% of the country’s total electricity supply.

The last time the Zaporizhzhya plant was offline was in 2014, shortly after Russia annexed Crimea, leading to rolling blackouts in Ukraine. The loss of power would have a devastating impact on Ukraine’s economy, which has already suffered significant damage from damaged infrastructure, blockades of Black Sea ports, and reduced factory production.

The Ukrainian government now relies on international donations for basic operations such as pension payments and health care services. The World Bank this month provided $4.5 billion in additional economic assistance to Ukraine to “meet the urgent needs created by the war.”

“There is a larger story behind this that involves economic warfare and this power plant is part of that. Russia is trying to prevent Ukraine from carrying out the administrative and economic activities that are necessary to run the country,” said Mick Ryan, a military strategist and former general in the Australian Army.

Recapturing the Zaporizhzhya plant would be one of Ukraine’s main goals in regaining territory lost to Russia. That would mean more fighting in and around the plant, leading to an increased risk of a nuclear disaster.

There are also signs that Ukraine is stepping up attacks on Russian forces in territories controlled by Moscow. Efforts to target critical infrastructure, in addition to troops and military equipment, are part of this strategy.

"I'm starting to think that the counter-offensive has been going on for months without us realising it," Mr Ryan said.

Analyst Michael Kofman, director of the Russian Studies program at CNA, also shared the same view when he said: "I don't think the increase in attacks on Crimea and Kherson is a coincidence. In my opinion, this is part of Ukraine's strategy to shape the combat environment. Ukraine's goal is to degrade Russia's military capabilities in key areas as well as attack logistics lines in Kherson and Crimea."

According to observer Ryan, although neither Russia nor Ukraine intentionally targeted the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant, any miscalculation could happen that we cannot foresee.