December threatens to wipe out two important pillars of Man Utd

The figure of 5 compared to 15 reveals the level of dependence: when Casemiro is present, Manchester United only concede 5 goals; when he is absent, the number jumps to 15. And December, with 6 Premier League games, plus Bryan Mbeumo and Amad Diallo leaving the club for AFCON, is approaching like a storm that can sweep away the stable foundation that coach Ruben Amorim has just worked so hard to build.

December storm and depth test

A rocky start to the season has given way to a five-game unbeaten run in the Premier League. United have benefited from not being in Europe and finishing early in the Carabao Cup, maintaining a rhythm of one game a week. This creates an ideal recovery fund and helps Amorim to shape his squad. But the traditional December – six games packed in – will be reversed: this is the period that can determine the momentum of the season.

Amorim's Frame and the Unchangeable Cards

In the current positive picture, the four names that have started every domestic game are Luke Shaw, Bruno Fernandes, Matthijs de Ligt and Bryan Mbeumo. Alongside them, Casemiro, Amad Diallo and Matheus Cunha are among the most minutes played. Operational stability comes from habit: the lineup is almost unchanged, the roles are clear, the rhythm of the game is reasonable.

AFCON takes people, the attacking structure is forced to change

Two absences were announced: Bryan Mbeumo and Amad Diallo will return to the squad for the Africa Cup of Nations at the end of December. This is a big loss for the attack, although Man United have a plan to deal with it. The problem is that when the explosive players leave, the remaining pillars have to shoulder a greater load amid the compressed match schedule.

Luke Shaw: fragile stability ahead of 2 matches/week schedule

At 30, Luke Shaw is excelling on the left flank in a three-man defence. Playing just one game a week helps him maintain optimum fitness and avoid muscle injuries – something that has haunted him in the past. His injury history shows that Shaw is sensitive to a frequency of two games a week; therefore, the risk of being sidelined in the winter is real. Losing Shaw is not just losing a left-back, but also a broken link in the chain that ensures the balance of the defence.

Casemiro: peak form and the question of rhythm

Casemiro, 33, is still going strong, and this season has seen a clear resurgence. The numbers speak for themselves: Man United have conceded just five goals when he’s on, and 15 when he’s off. However, last season’s resurgence was largely driven by the slower pace of the Europa League, while the domestic competition was tougher. December’s two-game-a-week rhythm begs the question: can Casemiro maintain the intensity and quality of his pressing, interceptions, and distribution at the same level?

Amorim's Rotation Problem

Amorim has benefited from consistency in the game-a-week period. But December does not allow for that. Rotation is mandatory, and any cracks – Shaw’s injury or Casemiro’s decline – can quickly spread through the team structure. Yesterday’s “untouchables” may have to give way, simply because the body and rhythm of play do not lie.

Selected statistics

• A five-match unbeaten run in the Premier League has given Man United a boost.
• Four mainstays in every domestic match: Luke Shaw, Bruno Fernandes, Matthijs de Ligt, Bryan Mbeumo.
• Casemiro present: conceded 5 goals; absent: 15 goals.
• December: 6 Premier League matches, 2 matches/week.
• Mbeumo and Amad Diallo attend AFCON in late December.

United have been on the right track with a stable system and a good rhythm of play. The upcoming festive period will determine whether that foundation is strong enough to weather the storm. If Shaw can stay fit and Casemiro can maintain his level, the road ahead will be clear; if not, December will be the most challenging turning point that will halt their progress.