World 2017: Unstable, unexpected, insecure, uncertain!

1. America is weakening

In 2017, due to mistakes in domestic and foreign policies, President D. Trump caused the role and position of the American superpower to seriously decline.

- Domestically, with the policy of "America First" and "Restoring the Greatness of America", through a number of measures such as reducing corporate taxes, reducing personal income taxes, increasing the exploitation and use of oil, shale gas, coal..., President D. Trump has restored the US economy with a GDP growth rate of about 3%, the lowest unemployment rate and inflation in more than ten years. But that is only the initial result of temporary solutions.

During his 11 months in office, President D. Trump has done nothing to heal the rift in American society. President D. Trump's approval rating has dropped dramatically, to only 35% in his first year in office (previously 55%).

- In foreign affairs, President D. Trump has introduced a series of foreign policies that go against the policies of his predecessor.

President D. Trump withdrew from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP); renegotiated the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) with Canada and Mexico; withdrew from the Paris Agreement on combating climate change; attacked the Iran nuclear deal; imposed a travel ban (ban on entry to the US) on citizens of 7 predominantly Muslim countries; threatened to destroy North Korea with nuclear weapons; and especially on December 6, 2017, announced the recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and will move the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem...

With erratic, impulsive, and spontaneous policies, President D. Trump has reduced the role and position of the American superpower in the world.

2. China's strong rise

After 39 years of implementing the reform and opening-up policy, China has achieved great achievements in economy, science and national defense. In 2017, China's GDP was 12,000 billion USD, an increase of 60 times; GDP per capita was 9,000 USD/year, an increase of 47 times.

At the 19th Congress (October 2017), General Secretary Xi Jinping confidently identified a bright future for the Chinese people and made China the world's only superpower by 2049.

China is rising, but if it uses force to threaten and violate the independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity of other countries, the international community will boycott it, and it will fall into "violence and brutality".

3. Russia strengthens its role in the world

In March 2014, Russia annexed the Crimean peninsula from Ukraine. The US and its allies tightened the blockade, embargo, and sanctions against Russia, with the aim of causing Russia to collapse economically and lose its status as a great power. From mid-2014 to the end of 2016, Russia faced extreme difficulties. In 2017, the Russian economy overcame the bottom of the recession.

On September 25, 2015, President V. Putin decided to directly participate in the war in Syria to save the Assad regime. International public opinion predicted that Russia would get bogged down in Syria like the Soviet Union failed in the Affanistan battlefield in the period of 1979 - 1989. Reality has proven that prediction wrong. On December 7, 2017, President V. Putin announced: The self-proclaimed Islamic State IS has been crushed on both banks of the Euphrates River in Syria. On December 8, 2017, Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, General Valery Gerasimor, said that the Syrian Arab Republic has been completely liberated from IS terrorists.

On December 11, 2017, President V. Putin made a lightning trip to the Middle East: visiting the Russian air base in Syria, holding talks with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, and discussing bilateral relations with Egyptian President El-Sisi and Turkish President Endogan. Whoever wins will be the first to arrive on the battlefield with the smell of gunpowder still strong. President V. Putin did just that.

In 2014, the heads of the US’s Middle Eastern allies were consistently cold towards Putin. From the second half of 2016 to 2017, Turkish President Erdogan was a key partner of President V. Putin. Washington’s “faithful allies” such as Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia rushed to the Kremlin to meet President V. Putin.

4. European Union crisis, weakening

In 2017, Europe had to cope with 4 crises:

- The eurozone has overcome the bottom of the recession in 2009-2012, but there is no guarantee that the eurozone will not fall into recession and crisis in the near future.

- The issue of allocating quotas that force member states to accept refugees is deeply dividing Europe. Since 2015, Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic have always opposed the European Commission's requirement that countries accept refugees.

- In 2017, Europe faced a growing wave of anti-union, anti-immigrant, anti-globalization populism. If in 2015 and 2016, populism only developed in a few countries, in 2017, populism shook the politics of France and Germany.

- The biggest crisis is the crisis of the Union model. Everyone agrees that the current Union model is flawed, unreasonable, ineffective and unsustainable.

After 61 years of existence, in 2017 Europe fell into crisis, division and "dilemma".

5. Korean Peninsula becomes a hot zone

In September 2017, North Korea successfully tested a thermonuclear bomb (H-bomb) with destructive power 5-6 times greater than the bomb the US dropped on Japan in August 1945.

In 2017, North Korea conducted 22 missile tests, including three intercontinental ballistic missile tests (in August, September and December) capable of hitting the largest US military base in the Asia-Pacific region on Guam. The number of North Korea's ballistic missile tests in 2017 was equal to the previous five years combined.

Mr. Kim Jong un declared his readiness to destroy the US with nuclear weapons. On September 19, 2017, President D. Trump declared: "If forced to defend ourselves and our allies, we will have no choice but to totally destroy the country of North Korea...".

This is the first time that the heads of two nuclear-armed nations have publicly declared the use of nuclear weapons to destroy each other.

From the above 5 highlights, the world political and security situation in 2017 can be summarized as follows: unstable, unexpected, insecure, uncertain.

Hanoi, December 30, 2017