The World in 2022: Conflict and Instability from East to West

PV:The world movement throughout 2022 shows that the "hot" or "cold" atmosphere, stability or volatility, mainly depends on the attitudes of the three superpowers: the US, Russia, and China. What is the Major General's assessment of this view of international public opinion?

Major General Le Van Cuong:There are 226 countries and territories on this planet, but Russia, the United States, and China are playing a decisive role in global political and security developments. In Europe, there is currently a conflict between Russia and Ukraine. This conflict is not only between two sides, but also involves European countries both directly and indirectly. Ultimately, this is a confrontation between the United States and Russia.

The stability or volatility of the world depends mainly on the behavior of the three superpowers: the US, Russia, and China. Illustration photo: Document

It can be said that in the Euro-Atlantic, the political and security situation fluctuates mainly due to Russia and the US... In the Asia-Pacific, all the ups and downs and fluctuations in the US-China relationship create a political and security picture in the region.

Thus, the three countries of the United States, Russia and China dominate world politics. This influence will last, at least for the next few decades.

PV:Standing out in the world picture of 2022 is the Russia-Ukraine war. This conflict marks many unprecedented records in history. So what are its outstanding features, Major General?

Major General Le Van Cuong:The Russia-Ukraine war can be characterized by the following five characteristics:The first,This is the biggest war to take place in the “heart” of Europe since the end of World War II.Monday,special military operationsRussia's actions in Ukraine are Moscow's response to US strategies to suppress and weaken Russia.Tuesday,This is the largest war in the world since 1945. Both Russia and Ukraine use high-tech weapons, especially drones, cruise missiles, unmanned underwater vehicles, etc. These devices have changed the nature of the conflict.

Wednesday,Ultimately, this war is a confrontation between two viewpoints: Russia advocates establishing a multipolar world, while the US wants to maintain a unipolar world led by it.Thursday,The Russia-Ukraine conflict has shaken the world in all fields, pushing the world into economic, energy, food, political and security crises. This war has also promoted the formation of new forces between factions.

The Russia-Ukraine war. Illustration: Skynews

PV:So far, which side has suffered losses, which side has benefited, and can the Russia-Ukraine war end diplomatically, Major General?

Major General Le Van Cuong:In terms of damage, Ukraine is the country that has suffered the most. About 1/5 of the Ukrainian population has emigrated, production facilities have been destroyed. In 2015, Kissinger once commented: “Friends of Ukraine, your only way is to be neutral, do not turn yourself into an outpost of one side against the other. That would be a disaster”. And now, the comment of 7 years ago is happening.

Europe is the big loser economically and politically, weakened in every aspect, and increasingly dependent on the US. Ultimately, Europe is a puppet in the hands of the US.

Russia suffered huge losses in terms of human resources, weapons, and financial resources. I believe that this loss was an inevitable consequence; because Russia, before launching the special military campaign, did not correctly assess the enemy.

No one else,America is the biggest beneficiary. Thanks to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the US reaps three major benefits: the European energy market, with its dominance of the liquefied gas and oil export market share; military industrial corporations "pocket" high profits, earning 19 billion USD in 10 months of 2022; the US dollar appreciates, consolidating the "lord" position of this currency globally. Because of these benefits, the US is very eager to promote the prolongation of the war.

In the coming time, the Russia-Ukraine war will become more and more fierce. Neither Russia nor Ukraine will decide to stop the war, but in my opinion, the US is the one "holding the ball".

In the Russia-Ukraine war, Ukraine was the country that suffered the most losses. Photo: Document

PV:In the Asia-Pacific region, the atmosphere of tension also prevails in 2022, especially the US-China relationship is falling into the worst state. Can the Major General clarify this issue?

Major General Le Van Cuong:Relations between the US and China are at their worst since the two countries normalized relations in 1979. In terms of technology, in March 2022, the US formed an alliance with Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea to prevent China from mastering advanced chip manufacturing technology. With this policy, the Joe Biden administration has abandoned maintaining a gap of two steps ahead of China's semiconductor technology, and now switched to a policy of destroying and suffocating China's advanced chip manufacturing industry. This competition will determine the success or failure of the US-China conflict in the 21st century.

Politically, the visit of the US House Speaker to Taiwan has increased the tension in US-China relations to the extreme. Beijing has reacted strongly to this activity. Therefore, in August 2022, the whole world held its breath, worried about a war between China - Taiwan - America.

The visit of the US House Speaker to Taiwan has increased the tension in US-China relations to the extreme. In the photo: The delegation of US Congressional officials led by Ms. Nancy Pelosi (4th from right) after arriving in Taipei on the evening of August 2. Photo: The Guardian

Also in 2022, the US announced its national security strategy, which identified China as its only competitor. China is a country that wants to change the US-led world order and establish a new order with China at the center.

In the context of curbing China's influence in the Asia-Pacific region, 2022 witnessed continuous 2+2 meetings between the US - Japan, US - Australia, as well as the frequency of Quad or AUKUS conferences.

All of this proves that,China-US relationsin 2022 has hit rock bottom. Both sides want to lift the bilateral relationship out of the disaster. Therefore, the meeting between President Xi Jinping and President Joe Biden in Bali (Indonesia) on the sidelines of the G20 Summit showed efforts to mend. However, that meeting was not aimed at resolving disagreements, but rather at probing and drawing each other's red lines around issues such as: Taiwan, the economy, the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Thus, the meeting in Bali was just "a sunny day in the cold".

The meeting between Mr. Joe Biden and Mr. Xi Jinping in Bali on November 14. Photo: Reuters

PV:Northeast Asia is considered a hot spot of instability in 2022, with North Korea continuously launching ballistic missiles of all kinds and hundreds of artillery shells, setting new records. How can we explain these actions of North Korea, Major General?

Major General Le Van Cuong:The reason can be explained that North Korea is dissatisfied with the administration of President Joe Biden. The US left open the possibility of dialogue, but still tightened sanctions; along with that, closely coordinated with South Korea and Japan to conduct large-scale military exercises. Thus, the missile launch tests are Pyongyang's response to Washington's policies. At the same time, the series of missile launches is aimed at strengthening North Korea's national pride and domestic unity.

PV:So, are there any notable hotspots in the Central Asia and Middle East regions in 2022, Major General?

Major General Le Van Cuong:It can be said that Central Asia and the Middle East are contested areas of three powers: the US, Russia, and China. Therefore, 2022 witnessed many instabilities in these areas such as: Thousands of protesters caused the biggest political crisis that shook Kazakhstan; Armenia - Azerbaijan armed conflict.

It is worth noting that Russia’s influence in Central Asia seems to be declining, while China is seeking to increase it by investing heavily economically. Central Asia is at a crossroads: maintaining traditional relations with Russia, but seeking new partners such as China and the United States.

The US, Russia and China are currently competing for influence in regions around the world. Source: scmp.com

The Middle East also witnessed the competition for influence among the “big guys”. In this region, we can see a rather interesting “chessboard”: Russia and Iran on one side; the US, Israel, Saudi Arabia on the other; China shaking hands with both sides. Just like the Central Asia region, the Middle East maintains traditional relations with the US, while expanding and strengthening relations with China, Russia...

In short, it can be said that the world in 2022 contains many global instabilities...

PV:Thank you, General!