The world in 2022: Conflict and instability from East to West.

PV:Global developments throughout 2022 showed that the atmosphere—whether "hot" or "cold," stable or volatile—depended primarily on the behavior of the three major powers: the United States, Russia, and China. What is your assessment of this view held by international public opinion, General?

Major General Le Van Cuong:There are 226 countries and territories on this planet, but Russia, the United States, and China are playing decisive roles in global political and security developments. In Europe, a conflict is currently underway between Russia and Ukraine. This conflict is not just between the two sides, but is drawing European countries into the fray, both directly and indirectly. Ultimately, this is a confrontation between the United States and Russia.

The stability or instability of the world largely depends on the behavior of the three major powers: the United States, Russia, and China. (Illustration: Archival material)

It can be said that, in the Euro-Atlantic region, the political and security situation is largely determined by Russia and the United States... In the Asia-Pacific region, the ups and downs and fluctuations in the relationship between the United States and China shape the political and security landscape of the region.

Thus, the United States, Russia, and China dominate world politics. This influence will continue for at least the next few decades.

PV:Standing out against the backdrop of the 2022 global landscape is the Russia-Ukraine conflict. This conflict has set many unprecedented records in history. So, what are its most notable characteristics, General?

Major General Le Van Cuong:The Russia-Ukraine conflict can be defined by the following five characteristics:The first,This is the biggest war to take place in the "heart" of Europe since the end of World War II.Monday,special military operationRussia's actions in Ukraine are Moscow's response to the US strategies of coercion and weakening Russia.Tuesday,This is one of the largest wars in the world since 1945. Both Russia and Ukraine are using high-tech weapons, especially drones, cruise missiles, and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). These devices have changed the nature of the conflict.

Wednesday,Ultimately, this conflict is a clash between two viewpoints: Russia advocates for a multipolar world, while the United States wants to maintain a unipolar world led by itself.Thursday,The Russia-Ukraine conflict has shaken the world in every aspect, plunging it into economic, energy, and food crises, as well as political and security instability. This war has also spurred the formation of new forces between opposing factions.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict. Illustration: Skynews

PV:To date, who has suffered losses, who has benefited, and can the Russia-Ukraine conflict be ended through diplomatic means, General?

Major General Le Van Cuong:In terms of damage, Ukraine suffered the most losses. Approximately one-fifth of the Ukrainian population has emigrated, and production facilities have been destroyed. In 2015, Kissinger stated: "Ukrainians, your only path is to remain neutral; do not become an outpost of one side against the other. That would be a disaster." And now, what he predicted seven years ago is coming true.

Europe is a major loser economically and politically, weakened in every respect, and increasingly dependent on the United States. Ultimately, Europe is a puppet in the hands of the United States.

Russia, on the other hand, suffered enormous losses in terms of personnel, weapons, and financial resources. I believe these losses were an inevitable consequence; because Russia, before launching its special military operation, did not properly assess its opponent.

No one else,The US is the biggest beneficiary.Thanks to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the US reaped three major benefits: the European energy market, gaining a significant share of liquefied natural gas and oil exports; high profits for military-industrial corporations, earning $19 billion in the first 10 months of 2022; and an appreciation of the US dollar, solidifying its position as the "king" of currencies globally. Because of these benefits, the US is very keen to prolong the war.

In the coming period, the Russia-Ukraine conflict will become increasingly fierce. Neither Russia nor Ukraine will be the ones to decide whether to cease hostilities; in my opinion, the United States is the one currently holding the upper hand.

In the Russia-Ukraine war, Ukraine was the country that suffered the most losses. Photo: Archival material.

PV:In the Asia-Pacific region, a tense atmosphere prevailed in 2022, especially with US-China relations reaching their worst point. Can the Major General clarify this issue?

Major General Le Van Cuong:Relations between the US and China are at their worst point since the normalization of relations in 1979. In terms of technology, in March 2022, the US formed an alliance with Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea to prevent China from mastering advanced chip manufacturing technology. With this policy, the Joe Biden administration has abandoned maintaining a two-step lead over China in semiconductor technology, shifting instead to a policy of crippling and stifling China's advanced chip manufacturing industry. This competition will determine the success or failure of the US-China conflict in the 21st century.

Politically, the visit of the US House Speaker to Taiwan dramatically escalated tensions in US-China relations. Beijing reacted fiercely to this action. Therefore, in August 2022, the whole world held its breath, worried about a potential war between China, Taiwan, and the US.

The visit of the US House Speaker to Taiwan has dramatically increased tensions in US-China relations. In the photo: A delegation of US congressional officials led by Nancy Pelosi (fourth from the right) after arriving in Taipei on the evening of August 2nd. Photo: The Guardian

Also in 2022, the US announced its national security strategy, which identified China as its only competitor. China is a country seeking to change the US-led world order and establish a new order centered on China.

Against the backdrop of containing China's influence in the Asia-Pacific region, 2022 saw a series of 2+2 meetings between the US and Japan, the US and Australia, as well as frequent Quad meetings or AUKUS conferences.

All of this proves that,Sino-American relationsRelations hit rock bottom in 2022. Both sides wanted to steer bilateral relations out of the crisis. Therefore, the meeting between President Xi Jinping and President Joe Biden in Bali, Indonesia, on the sidelines of the G20 Summit, showed efforts at reconciliation. However, that meeting wasn't aimed at resolving disagreements, but rather at probing and drawing red lines on issues such as Taiwan, the economy, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Thus, the Bali meeting was merely "a sunny day in the midst of a cold spell."

Joe Biden and Xi Jinping held talks in Bali on November 14. Photo: Reuters

PV:The Northeast Asian region was considered a volatile hotspot in 2022, with North Korea continuously launching various types of ballistic missiles and hundreds of artillery shells, setting new records. How can these actions by North Korea be explained, General?

Major General Le Van Cuong:The reason for this could be that North Korea is dissatisfied with the administration of President Joe Biden. The US is open to dialogue but continues to tighten sanctions; at the same time, it is closely coordinating with South Korea and Japan to conduct large-scale military exercises. Thus, the missile tests are Pyongyang's response to Washington's policies. Simultaneously, the series of missile launches aims to bolster national pride and unity within North Korea.

PV:So, what are the key points to note regarding the hotspots in Central Asia and the Middle East in 2022, General?

Major General Le Van Cuong:It can be said that Central Asia and the Middle East are regions of contention among three major powers: the United States, Russia, and China. Therefore, 2022 witnessed much instability in these regions, such as: thousands of protesters causing the biggest political crisis to shake Kazakhstan; and the armed conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Notably, Russia's influence in Central Asia appears to be declining, while China seeks to increase it through substantial economic investment. The Central Asian region is at a crossroads: maintaining traditional ties with Russia while seeking new partners such as China and the United States.

The United States, Russia, and China are currently vying for influence in various regions of the world. Source: scmp.com

The Middle East is also witnessing a struggle for influence among major powers. A rather interesting "chessboard" can be seen in this region: Russia and Iran on one side; the US, Israel, and Saudi Arabia on the other; and China cooperating with both sides. Similar to Central Asia, the Middle East maintains traditional relations with the US while simultaneously expanding and strengthening ties with China, Russia, and others.

In summary, it can be said that the world in 2022 contained many global uncertainties...

PV:Thank you, Major General!