World last week: Trust is cracked
(Baonghean.vn) - President Donald Trump abruptly ended negotiations on a Covid-19 relief package with the Democrats, despite the worsening US economy. This unexpected change could be a major blow to his own re-election prospects. Turkey's strong support for Azerbaijan in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has set it apart from other major countries, especially as relations between Turkey and Russia are more challenging than ever.
"TURNING OUR BACK" ON AMERICANS
“I have instructed my representatives to stop negotiating until after the election. Immediately after I win, we will pass an Economic Stimulus Bill for hardworking Americans and small businesses,” President Trump wrote on Twitter when he firstleave the hospitalCovid-19 treatment
President Trump cited Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's demands for state and local governments as the main reason for pulling out of the talks. Pelosi had demanded increased weekly unemployment benefits and refundable tax credits for the working poor, among other provisions.
For her part, Ms. Pelosi rejected Mr. Trump's comments, saying that he would lose the upcoming election and that Congress would pass measures to stimulate economic growth.
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| US President Donald Trump decided to stop negotiating a pandemic relief package. Photo: Reuters |
“The president is turning his back on the people.”
Before this decision, not only Democratic congressmen, but also Republicans criticized President Trump, and suggested the need tobailout packageto help millions of people who have lost their jobs during the Covid-19 crisis, which has hit the US the hardest in the world. Republican Senator Susan Collins called President Trump's decision to end the negotiations "a big mistake." Democratic candidate Joe Biden, President Trump's opponent in the November election, wrote on Twitter: "The president is turning his back on the people."
The sudden change could be a major blow to President Trump's re-election prospects. The move means Mr. Trump and Republicans mustseek re-electionwithout providing aid to voters, even though the national unemployment rate is around 8%. Moreover, the US leader is having to quarantine in the White House after contracting Covid-19. A series of the latest opinion polls show him trailing his opponent Joe Biden by a large margin.
President Trump’s tweet also sent shockwaves through Wall Street, sending stocks down as much as 2% and undermining the metrics he has been so proud of, a testament to his economic success. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost more than 500 points in minutes, then ended the day down 375 points. The airline industry, which had been hoping for a new bailout, was hit hard, with the S&P 500 airline index falling about 3.1%, wiping out the modest gains it had made earlier in the day.
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| Americans are being besieged by a wave of mass unemployment. Photo: Reuters |
Many experts believe that a second relief package before the end of 2020 is essential for a sustainable economic recovery. Moody's analyst Mark Zandi said: "What lawmakers do and don't do in the coming days will have a huge impact on the recovery, while the general sentiment is very vulnerable." Moreover, President Trump's illness and political feuds during the election season will make it unbearable for many people. People may lose faith in the economic recovery, reducing spending, investment and hiring.
FINDING A PLACE IN THE WORLD ORDER
For Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan, a resolute stance is a strategic priority and is crucial to flexing his military strategy abroad and maintaining support at home. President Erdogan has described Ankara’s support for Azerbaijan as part of Türkiye’s central quest for its “rightful place in the world order.”
Political analysts say Türkiye's stance is trying to send a veiled threat to Armenia and a cautious message to Russia, which has a defense treaty with Armenia, demonstrating Turkey's confidence in the drone war in Syria, Libya and Iraq.
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| The conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh is heating up. Photo: AP |
Russia, the United States and France have led calls for a ceasefire inNagorno-Karabakh, but President Erdogan said they had ignored the crisis for three decades and should not lead peacemaking. His stance has exacerbated a war of words with France, whose population includes many ethnic Armenians.
However, military successes and the flexibility of military forces in regions around the world have helped his ruling AK Party maintain its advantage in domestic opinion polls, despite a currency slump that has severely damaged the economy due to the pandemic.
Relationship betweenMoscow and AnkaraTurkey is also in a more difficult phase than ever. Türkiye's enthusiastic support for Azerbaijan's campaign has put its relations with Russia to the test.
Türkiye is a close ally of Azerbaijan, while Russia has a defense pact supporting Armenia and a military base in the country. Analysts say Erdogan’s approach could give him a significant voice in the region. Ankara’s dependence on gas imports from Azerbaijan, which increased 23% in the first half of 2020, is also a driving force for its strong position in Nagorno-Karabakh.
“President Erdogan is testing President Putin's patience."
But if Ankara overreacts, it could face a strong reaction from Russia - a country with strong military potential that can attack Turkish interests on many fronts. Alexander Dynkin, President of the Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences, assessed: "President Erdogan is testing President Putin's patience. He is making Putin more and more upset."
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| Russia-Türkiye relations have gradually ended their warm period, with cracks appearing. Photo: Reuters |
Neither the pandemic nor the economic downturn appears to be a hindrance to Ankara’s defense spending. “It’s not appropriate, but we have to do it,” one official said. “Türkiye is competing with the United States and Russia in this area. So we can’t think or act small.” Türkiye’s defense spending has increased 16% this year to $7 billion, or 5% of its total budget, and the defense budget has increased by nearly 90% in a decade. Thecross-border campaignTürkiye's military operations in northern Syria, Iraq and Libya are a priority for President Erdogan.
The US’s reduced presence in the region has left a void that Türkiye and Russia are seeking to fill. However, close cooperation with Moscow in many areas also means concerns about falling into conflict with Russia.
Relations between Russia and Türkiye have become strained, despite signs in the West that Ankara is abandoning the US and its NATO allies to cooperate with Moscow. According to a senior official in Ankara, Türkiye is not abandoning NATO to move closer to Russia, but is a “lone wolf” factor in confronting Russian pressure in the region.
