Russia-Turkey Agreement: A Turning Point for the Syrian Battlefield?

After a meeting lasting more than 6 hours in the Russian city of Sochi, the new agreement immediately took effect from 12:00 on October 23 local time. Will this 10-point agreement open a bright ending to the war that has lasted for more than 8 years in Syria as the parties expected?

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After being turned away by their US allies, the Kurdish forces in northern Syria are probably “breathing a sigh of relief” with the latest agreement between Russia and Türkiye on the war situation here. Accordingly, Russian soldiers and Syrian border guards entered the Syria-Türkiye border area from noon on October 23 to create conditions for the Kurdish forces to safely withdraw from the area. Although in theory, the Kurds had to give in and withdraw their troops from the towns of Manbij and Tal Rifaat, this does not mean that this force has failed on the battlefield.

Under pressure from the Turkish military campaign, the Kurdish rebels not “stressing” to safely withdraw is an acceptable scenario. Moreover, under the auspices of the “newcomer” Russia, the Kurds will certainly have a greater voice and will also seek greater autonomy in Syria in the upcoming discussions with the Damascus government.

But in general, the Kurdish story is only part of the problem. The Syrian civil war, which has lasted for more than 8 years, is a picture with too many pieces. Therefore, the content of the latest Russia-Turkey agreement has mentioned a series of different issues. According to the Joint Statement reached, the two sides will ensure the political unity and territorial integrity of Syria; resolutely fight against terrorism; maintain the status quo in the area where Ankara conducted the "Peace Spring" campaign; respect the 1999 Adan agreement between Syria and Türkiye...

Turkish President Tayip Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin shake hands in Sochi, Russia on October 22, 2019. Photo: Reuters

Public opinion assesses that the latest developments in Syria seem quite surprising at first glance, but it seems to have been a tacit agreement between the parties. Looking back right before the agreement between Russia and Türkiye, Syria also witnessed a surprising strategic shift in military affairs by the administration of President Donald Trump.

On October 6, the international press at that time was full of the latest statement of US President Donald Trump that the US would not only withdraw troops from the northeastern region of Syria but also not intervene in the military campaign launched by Türkiye against this region. It is understandable that the administration of US President Donald Trump with the policy of "America First" does not want to get bogged down further in the Syrian battlefield. Türkiye wants to put pressure on the Kurdish forces and the Syrian government also wants to smoothly handle the last remaining hot spot. Therefore, this new agreement between Russia and Türkiye is considered very timely and right on time!

Turkish soldiers and Turkish-backed Syrian fighters on the outskirts of Manbij city. Photo: AFP

Post-war pie

Undeniably, the biggest beneficiaries of the Russia-Turkey agreement are Moscow and Ankara. For Ankara, after just over a week of operations, its military forces have officially and peacefully withdrawn from the hot spot in Northern Syria, along with the commitment of the Kurdish forces to withdraw. With this move, Ankara has also appeased public opinion, which has been heavily criticizing it, as well as the US's heavy sanctions against the country.

Meanwhile, for the Syrian government, an expanded area of ​​control and a commitment to ensuring political unity and territorial integrity are probably what President Bashar al-Assad wants most at the moment. Of course, the agreement reached with Turkey is also a major diplomatic victory for Russian President Vladimir Putin. Once the Syrian war cools down, Moscow's voice and position in the region will increase.

America's role in the Middle East is increasingly fading. Photo: AP

On the contrary, in the post-war picture, America is considered empty-handed and defeated. The hasty decision to leave, leaving behind allies and geostrategic interests in the Middle East is what the public is seeing in the administration of President Donald Trump. Although it is explained that the shift in military strategy in Syria is to serve the "America First" policy, it is clear that the image and role of America are increasingly declining in hot issues in the Middle East.

Of course, at the same time, America’s European allies are also feeling uneasy as their geostrategic interests will be more or less affected if America no longer has any role here. Because in the fever of rebuilding Syria, a series of countries such as Russia, Iran or China are the ones who benefit the most. This is clearly something that Europe does not want!

Syrian people took to the streets with banners reading "Thank you Russia". Photo: Ria Novosti

While major powers are calculating their geostrategic interests in post-war Syria, the war situation here seems to be actually developing in a positive direction. In its latest statement, Türkiye declared that there is no need to restart its military campaign against the Kurds in northern Syria. This also means that the latest agreement between Russia and Türkiye has become a talisman, a safety barrier that cannot be violated by the parties. Next, the parties will move towards meetings and negotiations in a joint effort to find a final political solution to the Syrian war, opening a new door for millions of innocent people in this Middle Eastern country. However, at this time, the most important issue is how far the Russia-Turkey agreement will be implemented. This will clearly depend on whether the parties commit to not violating each other's strategic interests or not!

Khang Duy