Message from North Korea!

Accidental or intentional?

Although the whole world is still struggling to fight the Covid-19 pandemic, any change on the Korean peninsula still attracts a lot of attention. The gunshots in the demilitarized zone between the two countries on Sunday morning (May 3) immediately became the focus of international media and of course the US and its allies in the region.

The demilitarized zone between the inter-Korean border is the most heavily guarded in the world. Photo: AP

According to South Korea's announcement, early on May 3, multiple shots fired from North Korea hit a South Korean guard post in the Demilitarized Zone, forcing South Korean forces to issue a radio warning and return fire twice. South Korea said Pyongyang's actions violated a 2018 military agreement, which calls for a moratorium on hostile acts that could escalate tensions and conflicts between the two sides.

In the context of inter-Korean relations, although having improved a lot, still being in a state of war because there has not been a peace agreement since the 1950-1953 war, the first shot from North Korea has raised many doubts. The most asked question is whether the action was intentional or just an accident?

Considering the timing, the shooting occurred during an unfavorable time with thick fog, so it can also be considered an accidental act. However, military experts point out that, normally, accidental incidents in the DMZ are responded to and explained by the North Korean side immediately after.

However, this shooting incident is different, as Pyongyang has yet to confirm whether or not it was an “accidental” act. Therefore, it is possible that North Korea’s recent actions were calculated or took advantage of the “incident” to convey some hidden meaning.

North Korean state media released images of leader Kim Jong-un cutting the ribbon to inaugurate a fertilizer factory in Sunchon city on May 1. Photo: Reuters

This assessment is not without basis, because the shooting at the inter-Korean border took place right after the news that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un "reappeared" after 21 days of absence, giving rise to many speculations about his health condition.

Images released by KCNA show Mr. Kim, wearing a typical Pyongyang leadership shirt, holding scissors to cut a red ribbon at the inauguration ceremony of the Sunchon Fertilizer Factory in Sunchon City, about 50 km north of the capital Pyongyang. Standing next to him are senior North Korean officials and his sister Kim Yo-jong. The North Korean media's reporting and images of leader Kim Jong-un's activities have somewhat dispelled previous rumors. And the shooting at the border is expected to "steer" international public attention in another direction, thereby completely clearing up speculations related to the North Korean leader.

No escalation of tensions

Although it did not cause any damage or casualties, South Korean military officials confirmed that the North Korean border shooting raised concerns and created new tensions that could harm efforts to resume nuclear negotiations on the Korean Peninsula. However, considering the extent and nature of the incident, the recent shooting will not escalate tensions between South Korea and North Korea or lead to further military actions. In fact, causing tension with South Korea at this time is completely disadvantageous for Pyongyang.

Mr. Kim Jong-un appeared for the first time after more than 20 days of absence. Photo: AFP

Although North Korea still prioritizes direct dialogue with the US, negotiations have not progressed so far. Currently, the US is focusing on the election at the end of the year and whether President Donald Trump is re-elected or not, the North Korea issue will likely be put on hold by Washington until the election is over. Therefore, during this time, North Korea really needs to cooperate with South Korea to promote economic development. Moreover, maintaining relations with Seoul is also to wait for the right time to resume US-North Korea dialogue.

In addition, on the Korean side, since taking office, President Moon Jae-in has always advocated resolving inter-Korean relations in a harmonious direction, based on dialogue, not confrontation. The fact that the ruling party of President Moon Jae-in won a landslide victory in the mid-April election also ensures that South Korea will maintain a conciliatory stance towards North Korea in the coming time. Therefore, both sides will certainly not let small incidents affect major decisions.

Observers say that the absence of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, his sudden return and the border shooting may just be actions to attract international attention, especially from the US. North Korea has so far maintained restraint, aiming to create an atmosphere of dialogue with the US regarding its nuclear program. Pyongyang's aim is to call on Washington to lift the sanctions that are stifling the country's economy.

South Korean President Moon Jae-in and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un met at Panmunjom in April 2018. Photo: Reuters

However, because it has to focus on fighting the Covid-19 pandemic and domestic issues before the race to the White House later this year, it seems that the administration of President Donald Trump no longer prioritizes dialogue with Pyongyang at this time, although Washington has so far affirmed its goal of denuclearization on the Korean Peninsula.

Therefore, it is not difficult to understand why North Korea is increasingly impatient because the longer the negotiation stagnation lasts, the more disadvantageous it is for North Korea. Therefore, North Korea has to constantly "signal" to urge the US with previous missile launches or recent attention-grabbing actions.