3rd Inter-Korean Summit - New Challenge for South Korean President?
(Baonghean.vn) - The third summit this year between South Korea and North Korea will pose new challenges for South Korean President Moon Jae-in, as he seeks to break the current deadlock in nuclear negotiations between North Korea and the United States. This is the opinion of analysts published by Yonhap news agency on August 14.
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| The leaders of North and South Korea met at a historic summit in April. Photo: Internet |
After high-level talks on August 13, South Korea and North Korea announced that Mr. Moon and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un will hold a third meeting in Pyongyang next month, part of an agreement reached at their first summit in April.
The timing and agenda have not been disclosed, but the main focus of the upcoming meeting is expected to be on dismantling North Korea's nuclear weapons program, a commitment Mr. Kim made at his previous summit with Mr. Moon as well as his historic meeting with President Donald Trump in June.
Moon, who is widely seen as the architect of the Trump-Kim summit in Singapore after months of escalating tensions over Pyongyang’s nuclear and ballistic missile tests targeting the United States, will now face a test of whether he can still be an effective mediator, said Frank Aum, a senior North Korea expert at the US Institute of Peace.
“I think the meeting could help bring about a breakthrough because President Moon seems to understand each side’s motivations and concerns,” Aum said in an email interview with Yonhap. “President Moon should try to find a creative compromise that doesn’t satisfy both sides 100 percent, but allows the diplomatic process to move forward.”
Aum's comments reflect concerns among diplomats and experts that neither the United States nor North Korea is willing to change its stance on complete and verifiable denuclearization with the establishment of a peace mechanism accompanied by sanctions relief.
Last week, Trump's national security adviser John Bolton bluntly accused North Korea of failing to fulfill its denuclearization commitment.
Meanwhile, Trump continued to voice optimism that Kim would “honor” their agreement, and had fulfilled the agreement Kim made to return the remains of some American soldiers killed in the 1950-1953 Korean War.
Adam Mount, a senior fellow and director of the Defense Posture Project at the Federation of American Scientists, praised Seoul's efforts to engage Pyongyang on security and economic issues.
But he also noted that North Korea “has been stubborn on both fronts” and “a breakthrough on either front is unlikely.”
“There is little evidence that Kim Jong-un has chosen to leave behind his country’s past and pursue a new path,” Mount wrote in an email to Yonhap.
Still, if negotiations do not eliminate North Korea's nuclear arsenal, they can at least “shape that arsenal and the evolution of the regime.”
“The immediate priority must be to keep the new Yongbyon reactor from starting up and legislate a freeze on nuclear and missile testing,” he suggested. “These are short-term but significant victories.”
Mount also called for a coordinated Seoul-Washington negotiating strategy to maximize leverage in negotiations and prevent lasting damage to the alliance. “Pyongyang will continue to seek to drive a wedge between Washington and Seoul,” he said.
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| People support the meeting between Mr. Moon and Mr. Kim. Photo: Reuters |
Other experts have taken a more skeptical view of the planned summit, pointing to what they say are North Korea's violations of United Nations Security Council sanctions.
“South Korea risks being too eager to offer benefits to North Korea without applying corresponding pressure on Pyongyang to take significant denuclearization steps,” said Bruce Klingner, senior fellow for Northeast Asia at the Heritage Foundation. “By offering disproportionate benefits and acting as a go-between for North Korea with the United States, Seoul undermines international resolve to enforce the necessary sanctions.”
Three South Korean companies were recently found to be importing North Korean coal through Russia, possibly in violation of United Nations sanctions.
The US State Department was cautious in its comments last week, saying South Korea was “a loyal and trusted partner in maritime enforcement” of sanctions and that allies “work closely together” in a coordinated response to North Korea.
“In his third summit, Moon should not offer additional economic bait, but instead ask Kim Jong-un to clarify the regime’s denuclearization steps,” Klingner said.
