What will the 2025 NATO Summit discuss amid the Ukraine 'storm' and the Middle East crisis?
Leaders of NATO's 32 member states are gathering in The Hague, Netherlands, for a summit seen as one of the most important and complex in the alliance's recent history.
The two-day summit, which begins today (June 24), is the first time Donald Trump has attended since taking office for a second term in January.
This is also the first meeting chaired by former Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte in his new role as NATO Secretary General. The discussions are expected to be extremely thorny, revolving not only around external threats but also cracks and challenges from within the alliance.
Donald Trump's "problem" and the burden of defense spending
One of Mr Trump’s most familiar and hard-line messages, now back at the centre of the debate, is defence spending. For years he has argued that the US is shouldering too much of the financial burden for European security and demanding that its allies “pay their share”.
In 2023, NATO leaders agreed to raise the target of spending on national defense budgets to at least 2% of GDP by 2024. However, not all members met the target. According to statistics, nine countries did not meet this target in 2024, including Belgium, Canada, Croatia, Italy, Luxembourg, Montenegro, Portugal, Slovenia and Spain.
This shortcoming has become a reason for the Trump administration to apply more pressure. Washington is now demanding that allies increase spending to an unprecedented level of 5% of GDP.
“Five percent is our number. We ask our allies to take their defense investments seriously,” US Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker said in May.
Mr Trump even left open the possibility of whether the alliance should protect countries that do not spend enough.
Under pressure, Secretary-General Rutte may propose a new target of 5% of GDP by 2032, of which around 1.5% could be earmarked for “soft spending” such as infrastructure and cybersecurity. However, some countries such as Spain have rejected the increase, saying it is unrealistic.
Long-term commitment to Ukraine amid uncertainty
The Russia-Ukraine war remains a central theme. At its 2024 summit in Washington, NATO declared that “Ukraine’s future is in NATO” and pledged long-term security support worth at least €50 billion a year. Mr Rutte said it was “absolutely important” to ensure Ukraine was in the best possible position.
However, the bloc’s unity is showing signs of cracking. While members such as Estonia want Ukraine to join quickly and need more military support, others such as Hungary have a friendlier stance towards Russia.
The biggest uncertainty comes from Washington. With Trump back in office, it is unclear whether Ukraine will continue to receive strong US support. Trump has promised to end the war quickly, and his attitude toward Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has been less than warm, as evidenced by the way Zelensky was “rebuked” during a visit to the White House in February.
The Dark Shadow from the Middle East and the Role of Europe
An unexpected development overshadowing the summit is the Israel-Iran conflict, which the US became directly involved in over the weekend. Leaders are expected to discuss this new crisis, even if it is outside NATO’s traditional geographic scope.
The crisis, combined with Mr Trump’s skepticism about NATO, is pushing European powers to rethink their role. The Financial Times reported in March that Britain, France, Germany and the Nordic countries were holding informal but structured discussions about reorganizing the bloc to reflect greater European spending, in case Mr Trump unilaterally withdrew the US from the alliance.
Although Mr Trump has not yet announced that the US will leave NATO, Washington’s displeasure has prompted the EU to prepare for a scenario where the US role is significantly reduced. It would take five to 10 years for EU spending to replace the current US capabilities in the bloc. Discussions on a possible EU proposal could be held at the summit.
Clearly, the Hague Summit is more than just an annual gathering. It is where leaders face a series of intertwined challenges: maintaining unity on Ukraine, managing spending pressure from their biggest ally, dealing with a new crisis in the Middle East, and, most importantly, reshaping the future and identity of the alliance itself in a turbulent world.
