Russian Su-35 fighter jets help Iran overwhelm Israel's attack power?

General Ali Shadmani, a senior commander of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), confirmed Tehran's purchase of the Su-35 on January 27. However, he did not disclose how many Su-35s Tehran had ordered or when they would be delivered. The deal is seen as a reward from Russia, which has used thousands of Iranian-made Shahed unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in its conflict with Ukraine since 2022.

Iran’s air force is considered an outdated force, so the Russian Su-35 will significantly enhance its ability to threaten opponents approaching Iranian airspace. But Arash Azizi of Clemson University said that even immediate delivery of the Su-35 would be “too late” for Tehran.

“This is a significant upgrade for the Iranian Air Force, and the Su-35 is one of the weapons they have been waiting for for a long time. But it will not fill the gaps Iran has with its rivals like Israel. It will be a drop in the bucket,” Azizi said.

Previous reports said Iran would either receive at least 24 Su-35 fighters originally produced for Egypt, or order 50 Su-35s.

General Shadmani's statement came two weeks after Iran and Russia signed a 20-year strategic partnership agreement, and in the context of Israel's attack campaign using fighter jets and drones that destroyed much of Iran's strategic long-range S-300 defense system last year.

Su-35 is the silver bullet?

Freddy Khoueiry, an analyst at RANE, a global risk intelligence firm, said the timely delivery of the Su-35 could improve Iran’s “entire deterrence and defense capabilities.” The Su-35 would also make Israel “aware of the threat posed by advanced fighters” in Iran’s hands.

In fact, compared to its Middle Eastern neighbors, most of Iran's aircraft are outdated, including the F-14A Tomcat, F-4 Phantom II, MiG-29 Fulcrum, and Mirage F1.

However, although Russia's Su-35 is a 4.5 generation aircraft, it is not capable of compensating for air defense systems like the S-300 in terms of wide-area protection and anti-intrusion capabilities.

“Iran will also need time to train pilots and integrate the Su-35 into its existing defense network,” Khoueiry said.

“Modern fighter jets can deter hostile activity and enhance interception capabilities, but they are most effective when combined with surface-to-air defense systems. Therefore, replacing the lost S-300 systems is crucial to Iran’s overall air defense strategy,” Khoueiry added.

Federico Borsari, an expert at the Center for European Policy Analysis, also said that the Su-35 will significantly improve Iran's air defense and defense capabilities. According to him, Iran will also buy more modern Russian S-400 air defense systems to replace the lost S-300s. However, he assessed that "it will take Iran several years to own a fully operational Su-35 fleet. Therefore, Israel will still maintain an important advantage in the coming time."

“When the Su-35 is combined with the Irbis-E radar and R-77-1 missiles, it will improve Iran’s overall air defense capabilities, and become a more dangerous threat to Western 4th and 4.5th generation aircraft including Israel’s F-16 and F-15,” Borsari added.

In fact, it is not excluded that Russia will transfer R-77-1 missiles to strengthen Iran's Su-35. In addition, Moscow can also equip these missiles on the MiG-29A fighters that were supplied to Tehran in the early 1990s.

However, in future raids, Israel could use F-35 stealth fighters to attack Su-35s right on the runway, similar to how Israel attacked Iranian air defense systems in October 2024. According to Mr. Khoueiry, Israel could also use air-launched ballistic missiles to destroy enemy aircraft from a distance to prevent Iran from using them effectively.