Russian Su-35 fighter jets help Iran overwhelm Israel's attack power?

General Ali Shadmani, a senior commander of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), confirmed Tehran's purchase of the Su-35 on January 27. However, he did not disclose how many Su-35s Tehran had ordered or when they would be delivered. The deal is seen as a reward from Russia, which has used thousands of Iranian-made Shahed unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in its conflict with Ukraine since 2022.

Iran’s air force is considered outdated, so the Russian Su-35 will significantly enhance its ability to threaten opponents approaching Iranian airspace. But Arash Azizi of Clemson University said that even if the Su-35 was delivered immediately, it would be “too late” for Tehran.

“This is a significant upgrade for the Iranian Air Force, and the Su-35 is one of the weapons they have been waiting for for a long time. But it will not fill the gaps Iran has with rivals like Israel. It will be just a drop in the bucket,” Azizi said.

Previous reports said Iran would receive at least 24 Su-35 fighters originally produced for Egypt, or order 50 Su-35s.

General Shadmani's statement came two weeks after Iran and Russia signed a 20-year strategic partnership agreement, and in the context of Israel launching an attack campaign using fighter jets and drones that destroyed most of Iran's strategic long-range defense system S-300 last year.

Su-35 is the silver bullet?

Freddy Khoueiry, an analyst at RANE, a global risk intelligence firm, said the timely delivery of the Su-35 could improve Iran’s “entire deterrent and defense capabilities.” The Su-35 would also make Israel “aware of the threat from advanced fighters” in Iran’s hands.

In fact, compared to its Middle Eastern neighbors, most of Iran's aircraft are outdated, including the F-14A Tomcat, F-4 Phantom II, MiG-29 Fulcrum, and Mirage F1.

However, although Russia's Su-35 is a 4.5 generation aircraft, it is not capable of compensating for air defense systems like the S-300 in terms of wide-area protection and anti-intrusion capabilities.

“Iran will also need time to train pilots and integrate the Su-35 into its current defense network,” Khoueiry said.

“Modern fighters can deter hostile activity and enhance interception capabilities, but they are most effective when combined with surface-to-air defense systems. Therefore, replacing the lost S-300 systems is crucial for Iran in its comprehensive air defense strategy,” Khoueiry added.

Federico Borsari, an expert at the Center for European Policy Analysis, also said that the Su-35 will significantly improve Iran's air defense and defense capabilities. According to him, Iran will also buy more modern Russian S-400 air defense systems to replace the lost S-300s. However, he assessed that "It will take Iran several years to own a fully functional Su-35 squadron. Therefore, Israel will still maintain an important advantage in the coming time."

“When the Su-35 is combined with the Irbis-E radar and R-77-1 missiles, it will improve Iran’s overall air defense capabilities, and become a more dangerous threat to Western 4th and 4.5 generation aircraft including Israel’s F-16 and F-15,” Mr. Borsari added.

In fact, it is not excluded that Russia will transfer R-77-1 missiles to strengthen Iran's Su-35. In addition, Moscow can also equip these missiles with MiG-29A fighters that were supplied to Tehran in the early 1990s.

However, in future raids, Israel could use F-35 stealth fighters to attack Su-35s right on the runway, similar to how Israel attacked Iranian air defense systems in October 2024. According to Mr. Khoueiry, Israel could also use air-launched ballistic missiles to destroy enemy aircraft from a distance to prevent Iran from using them effectively.