Revealing Putin's next move on the Syrian battlefield

Russian President Putin recently declared that "the mission in Syria is accomplished" and a large part of the Russian expeditionary force can return home. This statement is believed to be intended to send a message not only to the Middle East.

During a surprise visit to the Hmeimim Air Base in Latakia Province, Putin stressed that Russia's two-year "assistance mission" in Syria had helped President Bashar al-Assad's regime stabilize and regain control over a large part of the country's territory. The Russian leader stressed that "the Syrian mission has been accomplished" and that a large part of the Russian expeditionary forces could return home.

According to the National Interest, the location Putin chose to make the above statement is noteworthy. Hmeimim is currently a Russian base. Along with the upgraded naval base in Tartus, Hmeimim marks the restoration of Russia’s strategic position in the Middle East. It may soon be joined by other facilities in Egypt and Libya, depending on the success that Russian diplomats will have in gaining access to rights in those countries.

The style and tone of Putin’s address were also meant to convey a message to the wider Middle East: that Russia had succeeded in a difficult mission that was initially expected to fail, leaving it on the same path as in Afghanistan.

The Kremlin's right decisions have been a game-changer, not only saving the Assad regime from possible overthrow but also restoring the leader's control over much of Syria.

Moscow can rightly say that Russia has respected its commitments, fulfilled its promises and protected its allies.

However, according to the National Interest, the real question is whether Mr. Putin's statements will lead to a significant Russian troop withdrawal?

The Russian leader needs to end his intervention in Syria to claim victory in a “short war” to resolve potential unrest at home.

“Mission Accomplished in Syria” also helped lay a solid foundation for Mr Putin’s fourth presidential campaign – by demonstrating strength and power abroad as well as his determination to tackle challenges at home.

What's more, it also makes it easier for the Russian military to pivot back to the Eurasian center if needed in Ukraine or any other contingency.

According to National Interest, in the coming time, President Putin may withdraw some "regular" military units in Syria, increasing the use of private military companies to continue operating in Syria. Thus, in parallel with the withdrawal of some forces, others will be added to replace them.

In addition, Mr. Putin's statements are also seen as a sign that Moscow has no plans to provide unlimited support to the Assad regime.

Russia, whose mission is to save the Assad regime from collapse, will not waste its energy helping the Syrian regime achieve a complete victory. In other words, the Assad regime may not drown, but it cannot raise its head above water either.

Moscow appears to be playing a complex balancing act in the Middle East, maintaining relations with Syria and Iran while also seeking to reach out to Israel, Saudi Arabia and secure a crucial new strategic partnership with Türkiye. An overly strong Assad regime may not be willing to make the major concessions demanded by Saudi Arabia and Turkey...

According to Dan Viet