Pentagon Intelligence: US Cannot Destroy Iran's Nuclear Facility

The DIA's preliminary report was based on a post-battle casualty analysis conducted by US Central Command, according to four sources who were briefed on the assessment and described it to CNN.

While analysis is still ongoing, initial findings paint a picture that is significantly less clear than what the public has been told. Specifically:Iran's enriched uranium stockpile was not destroyed; its centrifuges, the key component for enriching uranium, were largely "intact"; damage was largely limited to above-ground structures, including electrical infrastructure and some support facilities. Underground bunkers, which house the most important components, did not appear to have been severely affected.

“So the DIA assessment is that the US has probably pushed them back by a few months at most,” one source said.

Strong reaction from the White House

The White House acknowledged the existence of the assessment but immediately and vehemently denied it. In a statement to CNN, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said: "This so-called assessment is completely false and is classified 'top secret' yet was leaked to CNN by an anonymous low-level loser in the intelligence community."

“The leak of this so-called review is a clear attempt to undermine President Trump and discredit the brave fighter pilots who conducted a flawless mission to completely destroy Iran’s nuclear program,” Ms. Leavitt alleged.

Other administration officials, meanwhile, have offered mixed messages. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth echoed the president, saying that “Iran’s nuclear ambitions have been completely destroyed.” But Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Dan Caine was more cautious, saying it was “too early” to say whether Iran still had a nuclear capability.

The contradiction has been made even more apparent by the reaction from Congress. Republican Representative Michael McCaul, chairman emeritus of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, did not echo Trump's "total destruction" claim. "I've been briefed on this plan in the past, and it was never intended to completely destroy the nuclear facilities, it was intended to cause significant damage," McCaul told CNN. "But everyone always knew it was a temporary setback."

On the other side, Democratic Representative Pat Ryan accused Mr. Trump of canceling a classified House briefing on the airstrikes without explanation. "The real reason? He claimed to have destroyed 'all nuclear facilities and capabilities'; his team knows they cannot prove his bragging and fabrications," Mr. Ryan wrote on X.

Independent weapons experts agree with the DIA's assessment. "The ceasefire comes without Israel or the United States being able to destroy a number of key underground nuclear facilities... These facilities could serve as a basis for a rapid rebuilding of Iran's nuclear program," said Jeffrey Lewis of the Middlebury Institute of International Studies.

Israel's assessment and remaining questions

It is worth noting that even Israel’s own assessment found that the damage at Fordow was less than expected. Still, Israeli officials believe that the joint military action set back Iran’s nuclear program by two years—a claim they made even before the US got involved.

The strike also revealed technical challenges. The US used Tomahawk cruise missiles, rather than bunker-buster bombs, to attack the Isfahan facility. One source said that was because it was recognized that even the most powerful MOP bomb would have difficulty penetrating Isfahan’s basements, which were believed to be more fortified than Fordow.

Furthermore, US officials believe that Iran still maintains other secret nuclear facilities that were not targeted in the recent attack and that they are still operational.