Ukrainian Intelligence: Russia plans to mobilize half a million troops this month

Illustration photo: TASS

Moscow will mobilize 500,000 new soldiers to prepare for a new offensive in Ukraine - according to the spokesman of the Ukrainian Military Intelligence Service Vadym Skibitskyi told the Guardian (UK) on January 6.

A new wave of Russian mobilization will be announced on January 15, Mr. Skibitskyi said. It will then take Moscow about two months to assemble military formations, and their battlefield effectiveness will depend on how well the new forces are equipped and trained.

According to Mr. Skibitskyy, the new mobilization operation will facilitate Russian attacks in Ukraine in the spring and summer of 2023. On January 4, Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar also said that amid huge personnel losses, Russia is preparing for the second round of the so-called "partial mobilization" in the first quarter of 2023.

Earlier, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported that the next mobilization of troops in Russia is planned to take place from January to February 2023.

Meanwhile, Russian officials have denied that the Defense Ministry is planning a second mobilization. President Vladimir Putin publicly declared in December that a new mobilization would be “pointless” given that only half of the Russian troops mobilized last fall have been sent to the front lines in Ukraine.

But on December 22, 2022, Moscow announced an ambitious plan to increase its military from 1 million to 1.5 million soldiers and create new units. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said the country needed a force of 1.5 million “to ensure the fulfillment of tasks aimed at ensuring Russia’s security.” Shoigu did not say when the army would reach that size.

Shoigu said the expanded Russian army will include 695,000 volunteer contract soldiers, 521,000 of whom will join the ranks by the end of 2023. He announced that the conscription age will be changed from 21 to 30 (instead of the current 18-27), and recruits will be given the choice between serving for a year as conscripts or signing a contract with the army as volunteers.

Russia's military currently has about 1 million soldiers, compared to China's 2 million and the US's force of about 1.4 million. India also has more than 1.4 million soldiers.

The Kremlin previously considered its army size sufficient, but the calculation changed after hopes of a quick victory in the military campaign in Ukraine were not achieved.

In August, Russian President Putin ordered the size of the military to increase to 1.15 million starting January 1, 2023. And in September, he ordered the mobilization of 300,000 reservists to reinforce forces in Ukraine.

Although President Putin said there was no need for more, his decree on mobilization is open-ended, allowing the military to call up additional reservists as needed. The Russian president's decree also prohibits soldiers from voluntarily terminating their contracts.

In his statement, Mr. Putin promised that those mobilized would receive a monthly salary of at least 195,000 rubles (about $2,800), about five times higher than the average Russian salary. Some regional governments also promised their own bonuses.

In addition to the military buildup, in December 2022, Russian Defense Minister Shoigu also announced plans to create new military units and force groups in western Russia, including a corps that will be deployed to the northwestern region of Karelia near Finland.

The plans mark a return to the Soviet-era military structure, which Russia abandoned in recent military reforms with the creation of smaller, more mobile units.

Moscow has also prioritized the modernization of its nuclear forces, which President Putin described in December 2022 as “the main guarantee of our sovereignty and territorial integrity, strategic parity and the global balance of forces.” Putin said the new Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile would soon enter service. The Sarmat is intended to replace aging Soviet-made ballistic missiles and form the core of Russia’s nuclear forces, with the ability to “evade any missile defense system.”