Overview of gold price forecast: Experts are strongly divided

Gold Price Forecast Overview: Three Main Scenarios for This Week

Bearish scenario: Based on expectations of no Fed rate cut, USD strengthens and selling pressure as prices rise.

Neutral scenario: Markets await US economic data, especially after a period of information shortage.

Bullish scenario: Gold is in an accumulation cycle, receiving support from defensive cash flows and the macro fundamentals remain favorable.

Kitco News’ weekly gold survey shows that this week’s gold price forecasts are mixed. Of the 17 Wall Street professionals surveyed, 47% see prices falling, 35% are neutral, and 18% are bullish. Among individual investors (230 participants), the percentage of bullish expectations is overwhelmingly 65.7%.

Gold price forecasters: Concerns about Fed keeping interest rates and USD rising

Adrian Day, chairman of Adrian Day Asset Management, took a cautious view, saying that gold is likely to retest the bottom near $3,930 an ounce before recovering solidly. If there is a correction, he said, the decline will be quick and shallow, but gold still has to overcome a period of uncertainty about US interest rate and import tax policies.

Expert Jim Wyckoff (Kitco.com) shares the same view. He assesses that the gold's upward momentum is weakening quite quickly and short-term technical indicators are deteriorating. He is inclined to a bearish scenario in the coming time, especially after gold failed in its attempt to surpass $4,200/ounce.

Mr. Alex Kuptsikevich (FxPro) is also in the group predicting a decrease in gold prices. He believes that gold is under selling pressure as the market adjusts to new interest rate expectations. The last two sessions of the week showed that buying power is no longer strong. He predicts that prices may continue to be sold when they increase. At the same time, if the Fed maintains its stance of not cutting interest rates in December, the USD may increase and put downward pressure on gold.

He also noted another scenario: if upcoming US economic data deteriorates rapidly, gold could initially rebound and then fall again as risk markets sell off.

Michael Moor (MoorAnalytics.com) adds to this group with a bearish forecast for the week.

Neutrals: Waiting for more signals from the Fed and economic data

Many experts remain neutral as the market is lacking quality economic data after the 43-day US government shutdown. The lack of information has led the Fed to maintain a neutral stance, leading to reservations among analysts.

The CME FedWatch tool also noted that the market now predicts a less than 50% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates in December, much lower than the level of over 90% last month. This makes the neutral side believe that gold needs more clear signals to determine its direction.

Gold price forecasters: Optimistic about accumulation phase

In contrast to the above two groups, some experts support the scenario of increasing gold prices.

Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, maintains that gold prices will rise unless there is a sharp sell-off in the stock market. According to him, the S&P 500 is still holding an important support zone. He believes that if stocks fall sharply, most assets will be affected, but gold still has a chance to recover thanks to money seeking shelter.

James Stanley (Forex.com) is also optimistic. He likened the current period to the accumulation period of the last two months of last year and the first four months of this year. He believes that the market is not ready for a new breakout, but the fundamentals of gold are still very stable. According to him, profit-taking after a strong increase is normal and does not change the long-term trend.

Domestic and international gold prices accelerated strongly at the beginning of the session.

The spot gold price in the Asian market on the morning of November 17 opened at 4,079.58 USD/ounce. After only about 15 minutes of trading, the price increased to 4,100.46 USD/ounce, equivalent to an increase of nearly 21 USD/ounce. The developments at the beginning of the week showed that the international market reacted quite sensitively to global economic information, helping the world gold price maintain a high level right from the early session.

At Saigon Jewelry Company Limited (SJC), the price of SJC gold bars on the morning of November 17 was listed at 149 million VND/tael for buying and 151 million VND/tael for selling. The price remained the same as the previous day. The difference between buying and selling is currently at 2 million VND/tael.

Bao Tin Minh Chau listed the price of SJC gold bars at 149.5 million VND/tael for buying and 151 million VND/tael for selling. The price increased slightly by 500 thousand VND/tael for buying compared to the previous session. The difference between buying and selling decreased to 1.5 million VND/tael.

At Doji, the price of SJC gold this morning was listed at 149 million VND/tael for buying and 151 million VND/tael for selling. The price remained stable compared to the previous day. The difference between buying and selling was 2 million VND/tael.

Phu Quy listed the buying price of SJC gold bars at 148 million VND/tael and the selling price at 151 million VND/tael. The price has not changed compared to the previous session. The current buying-selling difference is 3 million VND/tael.

For the Hung Thinh Vuong 9999 ring line, Doji listed the gold price at 146.9 million VND/tael for buying and 149.9 million VND/tael for selling. The two prices are stable compared to the previous day. The difference remains at 3 million VND/tael.

Bao Tin Minh Chau's Thang Long Dragon plain round ring has a buying price of 148 million VND/tael and a selling price of 151 million VND/tael. The price increased slightly by 200 thousand VND/tael in both directions. The difference between buying and selling price remains at 3 million VND/tael.

Phu Quy 999.9 round ring is listed at 147.5 million VND/tael for buying and 150.5 million VND/tael for selling. The price is unchanged from the previous day. The difference between buying and selling is 3 million VND/tael.

At Bao Tin Manh Hai, Kim Gia Bao gold rings are bought at 147.8 million VND/tael and sold at 150.8 million VND/tael. The price remains the same as the previous session. The difference between buying and selling remains at 3 million VND/tael.