Overview of gold price forecasts: Experts have strong divergence.
Gold price forecasts this week are highly polarized: Wall Street is cautious, individual investors remain optimistic, while experts are divided into three distinct groups.
Overview of gold price forecasts: Three main scenarios for this week
Bearish scenario: Based on expectations that the Fed will not cut interest rates, the USD will strengthen and selling pressure will increase as prices rise.
Neutral scenario: The market awaits US economic data, especially after a period of information scarcity.
Bullish scenario: Gold is in an accumulation phase, receiving support from defensive capital flows and the macroeconomic fundamentals remain favorable.
Kitco News' weekly survey shows that gold price forecasts for this week are not forming a general trend. Of the 17 Wall Street experts surveyed, 47% predicted a price decrease, 35% held a neutral view, and 18% predicted an increase. Among individual investors (230 participants), the expectation of an increase was overwhelmingly high at 65.7%.
Those predicting a drop in gold prices: Concerns about the Fed keeping interest rates high and the US dollar strengthening.
Adrian Day, President of Adrian Day Asset Management, offered a cautious view. He suggested that gold is likely to retest the support level near $3,930 per ounce before a solid recovery. According to him, any correction would be quick and shallow, but gold still needs to overcome the uncertainty surrounding US interest rate policies and import tariffs.
Expert Jim Wyckoff (Kitco.com) shares this view. He assesses that the upward momentum of gold is weakening quite rapidly and short-term technical indicators are deteriorating. He leans towards a bearish scenario in the near future, especially after gold failed in its attempt to break above $4,200 per ounce.
Alex Kuptsikevich (FxPro) is also among those forecasting a decline in gold prices. He believes gold is under selling pressure as the market adjusts to expectations of new interest rates. The last two trading sessions of last week showed that buying pressure is no longer strong. He predicts that prices may continue to be sold off when they rise. At the same time, if the Fed maintains its stance of not cutting interest rates in December, the USD could strengthen and put downward pressure on gold.
He also noted another scenario: if upcoming US economic data deteriorates rapidly, gold could surge initially before plummeting again as risk markets experience a sell-off.
Michael Moor (MoorAnalytics.com) adds to this group with a forecast of a downward trend this week.
Neutralists: Waiting for further signals from the Fed and economic data.
Many experts are maintaining a neutral stance due to the market's lack of quality economic data following the 43-day US government shutdown. This lack of information is causing the Fed to tend towards a neutral position, leading to caution among analysts.
The CME FedWatch tool also noted that the market now forecasts less than a 50% chance of a Fed interest rate cut in December, significantly lower than the over 90% of the previous month. This has led neutral observers to believe that gold needs more clear signals to establish its direction.
Those forecasting a rise in gold prices: Optimistic about the accumulation phase.
In contrast to the two groups above, some experts support the scenario of rising gold prices.
Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, maintains the view that gold prices will rise unless there is a sharp sell-off in the stock market. According to him, the S&P 500 is still holding a key support level. He believes that if stocks fall sharply, most assets will be affected, but gold still has a chance to recover due to safe-haven flows.
James Stanley (Forex.com) is also optimistic. He compares the current period to the accumulation phase of the last two months of last year and the first four months of this year. He believes the market is not yet ready for a new breakout, but the fundamental factors of gold remain very stable. According to him, profit-taking after a strong rally is normal and does not change the long-term trend.
Domestic and international gold prices surged sharply at the start of the trading session.
Spot gold prices in the Asian market opened at $4,079.58 per ounce on the morning of November 17th. Within just 15 minutes of trading, the price had risen to $4,100.46 per ounce, an increase of nearly $21 per ounce. The early week developments show that international markets are reacting quite sensitively to global economic news, helping world gold prices maintain high levels from the start of the trading session.
At Saigon Jewelry Company Limited (SJC), the price of SJC gold bars on the morning of November 17th was listed at 149 million VND/ounce for buying and 151 million VND/ounce for selling. The price remained unchanged compared to the previous day. The buy-sell spread is currently 2 million VND/ounce.
Bao Tin Minh Chau listed the price of SJC gold bars at 149.5 million VND/ounce for buying and 151 million VND/ounce for selling. The buying price increased slightly by 500,000 VND/ounce compared to the previous session. The buy-sell spread decreased to 1.5 million VND/ounce.
At Doji, the price of SJC gold this morning was listed at 149 million VND/ounce for buying and 151 million VND/ounce for selling. The price remained stable compared to the previous day. The buy-sell spread was 2 million VND/ounce.
Phu Quy listed the buying price of SJC gold bars at 148 million VND/ounce and the selling price at 151 million VND/ounce. The price remains unchanged from the previous session. The buy-sell spread is currently 3 million VND/ounce.
For the Hung Thinh Vuong 9999 gold ring line, Doji listed the price at 146.9 million VND/ounce for buying and 149.9 million VND/ounce for selling. Both prices remained stable compared to the previous day. The difference remained at 3 million VND/ounce.
The price of a plain gold ring with the Thang Long Dragon design from Bao Tin Minh Chau is 148 million VND/ounce for buying and 151 million VND/ounce for selling. This represents a slight increase of 200,000 VND/ounce in both directions. The buy-sell spread remains at 3 million VND/ounce.
The Phu Quy 999.9 gold ring is listed with a buying price of 147.5 million VND/ounce and a selling price of 150.5 million VND/ounce. The price remains unchanged from the previous day. The buy-sell spread is 3 million VND/ounce.
At Bao Tin Manh Hai, the price of gold for Kim Gia Bao gold rings is 147.8 million VND/ounce for buying and 150.8 million VND/ounce for selling. The price remains unchanged compared to the previous session. The buy-sell spread remains at 3 million VND/ounce.
